I think the draw would be based on past performance rather than the FIFA ranking. It has been the same for the previous editions.
I have posted before in this thread : Regulations AFC Challenge Cup 2012 (Qualifiers) 18. Competition System a) The Competition shall consist of one or two stages depending on the number of entries i. If there are more than sixteen (16) teams, the lower ranked teams (based on AFC Challenge Cup 2010 rankings) will play in a Home/Away play-off to determine the sixteen (16) qualifiers ii. Sixteen (16) teams or lesser to play in Group Stage Qualification (League system) b) Depending on the number of entries or in the case of withdrawals or suspensions of teams, the AFC Competitions Committee reserves the right and may change the Competition System (cf. Art. 18) and the Technical Regulations (cf. Art. 19) c) The AFC Competitions Committee forms groups and/or sub-groups for the Competition by drawing lots whilst taking sports, geographic and economic factors into consideration, as far as possible.
Congratulations to Maldives for winning the bid to host the AFC Challenge Cup finals. My guess is that the Philippines be allowed to host one of the group stage qualifiers as a consolation prize. I think the determining factor for choosing Maldives is the all out support that the government of Maldives has given to their bid which assured the AFC that any preparations towards a successful hosting will be unhindered and any problems that come up can be easily remedied. The PFF had an attractive bid, but did not have the government backing that helped the Maldives bid. My next question is if countries who are currently competing in the AFC Challenge Cup, like the Philippines continue rising in the AFC FIFA rankings, how will the AFC determine who will compete in the Asian Cup qualifying competition for the 2019 Asian Cup? Will it be better for these countries to compete in the AFC Challenge Cup where only the winners will have a chance to play in the playoffs or will they be bundled into the main AFC qualifying competition proper? It might be better for some of these countries like the Philippines and Palestine to enter the AFC qualifying competition proper despite the greater challenges they will have to face, in the future because of the fact that this competitions will likely be scheduled on FIFA match dates and therefore they will be assured of being able to use their best players for those games. Apparently the AFC will continue allowing developing nations to compete in the Challenge Cup instead of reserving it for the emerging nations category. What therefore will stop middle ranked developing nations who are currently in the main Asian cup qualifying competition to opt to compete in the Challenge Cup competitions instead? The AFC should delineate clearly who will be allowed to participate in the future to avoid any confusion as well as minimize any allegations of bias in the selection process.
AFC is a joke, the whole Challenge Cup, Asian Cup qualifiers and a play off for 2016 and 2018 winners, its all a joke. Not sure where AFC are heading towards, but all I can read from all this, is that AFC only care about there big 5, and no one else, all other nations are just there to make up numbers. The Challenge Cup can be incorporated in the Asian Cup qualifiers by the top 8 teams joining the final AC Qualifiers.... scrap the whole automatic berth/play off berth. I am sure the final 8 nations will be more than happy to participate against better nations in a qualifying format. These emerging nations have shown us of late that they aren't that far off from the mid-class nations..
Just like I predicted the AFC offered one of the group qualifiers to the Philippines as a consolation prize and the PFF accepted. http://www.philstar.com/sports/2012/12/01/877805/azkals-stage-challenge-cup-qualifier Here is the reason they gave for choosing Maldives: “According to them (AFC officials), Maldives made a losing bid several times in the past so the sentiment was award it to them this time."
I was gonna predict they would host a qualifier again; the last time was in 2008 in Iloilo, where the Philippines lost their chance to qualify by goal difference. But I'm still flabbergasted by the fact the AFC awarded Maldives the hosting rights out of sympathy. This is plain favouritism in my opinion and it's quite unbecoming of the AFC to prioritise the SAFF during low-tiered competitions like this.
Decision is done. I don't consider it a big deal. As our team manager said, it gives us more competitive games to prepare for the finals assuming of course we qualify, which is always an issue when you are hosting an event as World Cup host Brazil has been observing lately.
Since Maldives is the host this is how the pots should be Pot A * Turkmenistan * Philippines * Palestine * Tajikistan ---------------------- Pot B * Nepal * India * Kyrgyzstan * Afghanistan ----------------------- Pot C * Pakistan * Myanmar * Sri Lanka * Chinese Taipei ------------------------ Play Off Round * Macau * Mongolia * Laos * Guam * Brunei * North Mariana Island The teams in Pot A and Pot B should all qualify
Since only 7 teams will qualify, I guess AFC would divide the teams in 3 groups of 5 teams. 6 lower ranked teams would play in the per-qualifier, out of which 3 would reach the main qualifier along with the other 12 teams. From each of the 3 groups, 2 teams qualify to the main tournament, while the best 3rd best team would also join them.
I think there will be only 2 play offs, The winners will make up the 16 team qualification, top 2 from each group will go through to the finals..Similar to 2010 edition.
If thats the case then the pots should look like this Seeding Pot A * Turkmenistan * Philippines * Palestine Pot B * Tajikistan * Nepal * India Pot C * Kyrgyzstan * Afghanistan * Pakistan Pot D * Myanmar * Sri Lanka * Chinese Taipei Pot E (3 of these teams) * Macau * Mongolia * Laos * Guam * Brunei * North Mariana Island
Only 7 teams will qualify, not 8. Maldive is already there. The other way is to make 3 groups of 4 teams (top 2 qualify), and one group of 3 teams (top 1 qualifies).
If there are 3 groups and the pots are based on rankings then the pots will look like this Pot A * Turkmenistan * Tajikistan * Philippines Pot B * Palestine * Myanamar * Afghanistan Pot C * India * Nepal * Chines taipei Pot D * Laos * Pakistan * Guam Pot E (3 of these teams) * Sri Lanka * Mongolia * Brunie * Macau * Kyrgyzstan * North Mariana Island (in fifa rankings)
well there is a total of 18 teams which need to be reduced to 16 teams for the qualifiers right? so i would say 2 play offs? to reduce to 16 teams, 4 groups of 4?
Ok, speculations are over. The draw will be held on December 11. the national teams will be divided into five groups. The five winners of their groups, as well as the two best second teams will join Maldives. Laos, Myanmar, Kyrgyzstan, Nepal and the Philippines will host the qualifying groups. Source: website of Tajikistan Football Federation
The pots have been confirmed According to Kyrgyzstan Football Federation Pot A (Hosts) Philippines, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Myanmar, Nepal Pot B:Turkmenistan, Palestine, Tajikistan, India, Afghanistan Pot C: Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Cambodia Pot D:Macau, Mongolia, Brunei, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands http://filipinofootball.blogspot.com/2012/12/2014-afc-challenge-cup-pots-in-draw.html
Unofficial reports suggested that Cambodia withdrew from the qualifiers. My order of rankings Pot A: 1- Philippines, 2-Myanmar, 3- Nepal, 4-Laos, 5- Kyrgyzstan Pot B: 1- Turkmenistan, 2- Tajikistan, 3- Palestine, 4-India, 5-Afghanistan Pot C: 1-Bangladesh, 2-Chinese Taipai, 3-Pakistan, 4-Sri Lanka, 5- Cambodia Pot D 1- Macau, 2- Guam, 3-Mongolia, 4-Brunei, 5- Northern Mariana Islands
I doubt it, it will all random, all the big teams minus Philippines are in the same pot so they cannot be drawn into the same group, which makes me convinced that we will see the likes of -Turkmenistan- Tajikistan- Philistine- Palestine- India- Maldives (host) all in the final in 2014. with the 2 spots remaining and based on the pots, Laos, Myanmar, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh I feel have a chance to qualify.
This means that the Philippines will have a good chance of being grouped with one of the strong teams from Pot B. With only the winner advancing from the group plus the 2 best second placed teams, there is a possibility that one of the better teams from the last edition of the Challenge Cup will not qualify.
Корзина 1 (хозяева отборочных групп): Кыргызстан, Лаос, Мьянма, Непал, Филиппины. Корзина 2: Туркменистан, Палестина, ТАДЖИКИСТАН, Индия, Афганистан. Корзина 3: Пакистан, Бангладеш, Шри-Ланка, Китайский Тайбэй, Камбоджа. Корзина 4: Макао, Монголия, Бруней, Гуам, Северные Марианские острова. http://www.fft.tj/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1826 Also confirmed by Tajikistan FA website. Is Bangladesh and Cambodia back in the qualifiers ?
Well, Cambodia did say they were out. Can't see why they would change their mind or see whats happened to make them change. Bangladesh never said they were out, but never said they would be in. I expect they will be in though.