208 To 1: World Cup 2014 Elimination Timeline [R]

Repped for perceptive precognition.

NZ, Solomons stunned by Francophone duo

Correct; that's why I didn't say "129. Solomon Islands // 128. New Zealand". But wufc accurately predicted that New Zealand would get knocked out of the 2012 OFC Nations Cup.

It's a shame for NC and Tahiti that this didn't double as WCQs, as I don't know if NZ would have played any better. They pretty much brought their first team to the Solomons. Seeing that the World Cup qualification starts in 3 months, goes over the course of 6 months, and is double round robin, New Zealand should get it together and make it to the playoffs. Should.

Double-round-robin is a much more reasonable way to advance teams in World Cup qualification -- much less randomness than single-elimination knockout.

With today's results, South Korea and Iran sit in the two qualifying spots in Group A, despite each having only played one match -- in both cases away from home -- while the three other teams in the group have each played two matches. Qatar, Uzbekistan, and Lebanon have their work cut out for them.

Of course, at least one of those three teams is either going to come back and qualify directly, or is going to advance to the AFC fifth round. The AFC fifth round is a two-leg aggregate-scoring playoff against Group B's third-place team, with the winner proceeding to be an underdog in the intercontinental playoff against a CONMEBOL team.

True enough, but I like whomever is 3rd in the other bracket (Iraq or possibly Australia) to go to the intercontinental POs, and I'll think the 5th placed CONMEBOL team will win the PO rather easily.

I don't think it would be rather easy like you say. I'm sure the Asian nations would put up a good fight at home. An Uzbekistan or a Australia would do well at home, and could score 2 or 3 when they arr on fire.

They could meet a Venezuela or Colombia for instance.

Of course, the Conmebol team could do the same on home turf. I think against an Middle Eastern team more so.

I think Australia-CONMEBOL would be a near toss-up. I think CONMEBOL would be heavily favored against Uzbekistan.

Well, I don't think so, the cold weather conditions. The scary state for many players going their. I think whoever might play Uzbekistan (if this was to happen) would struggle. Again, Uzbeks would struggle in South America in my opinion.

It's maybe just a pity the 4 teams that play in inter-continental qualfiers don't play a round robin in a neutral host. It wouldn't be the look of the draw like we have now, where in theory both conmebol and AFC teams could probably beat both OFC and Concacaf for instance.

you've got to remember that with Brazil already qualified, this years 5th SA team will be the normal 6th place team... if could be Ecuador, Venezuela, Peru, etc... on the other hand, it could be Colombia or Paraguay... they would obviously be the favorites but I'm not sure if it's going to be a walk in the park either, especially if the Asian side gets a good result at home..

Japan, Korea or Australia would all be favourites over the 6th ranked C-Bol team, and I'd put Iran as even money at worst. Of course these 4 teams are also the very heavy favourites to get direct qualification anyway. Uzbekistan, if they can sort themselves out, can be a very strong team and Iraq have loads of talent so they could cause an upset - but it would be an upset. Qatar could possibly do the same but I can't see any of the other teams making it over 2 legs.

The drop-off in quality for the 5th best team is pretty big. Besides I doubt they'll change the formula... AFC will play OFC and CONCACAF will play CONMEBOL.

And weather conditions are pretty big factors,

The thing that bugs me about Asian qualifying is the 2 groups of 5 in the final stage. One team from each group always gets a bye whether it's for one week or several months. If they went with 2 groups of 6, that would eliminate the problem.

Which then means they have to change the previous round to suite aswell. AFC doesn't have 10 strong nations to begin with, so to throw a couple more in at that stage would be for all the worng reasons.

The formula has been changed already. It's Concaf - OFC and AFC against Conmebol

Really? Ok. Then unless one of the top teams in Asia has a bad run I can't see CONMEBOL not winning the tie. Maybe Uzbekistan due to the extreme benefits of home advantage they seem to have.

On one hand, Asia had 38 countries start in Round 1 or Round 2 competing for 15 spots in Round 3 (5 countries started in Round 3). If Round 3 went up from 20 to 24 teams, the 38 countries would just need one round before the first group stage to get down to 24 countries. The good thing about Round 4 having groups of five is that the AFC champion can have off for the matchday during the Confederations Cup.

lol what "extreme benefits" do Uzbekistan have? When they score a goal, it doesn't count, when they win a WC playoff game they should have won by more, FIFA nulls it, when they try and host a FIFA tournament - they get it taken away... , when they get players booked - they get extended suspensions..... ladies & gentlemen, introducing the world's most unluckiest team ever... Uzbekistan!

Hehe I meant the fact that according to some presenters who comment games Uzbekistan really has an really strong home advantage, as playing conditions there are pretty harsh and almost no teams really cope with it.

Besides - good luck has to come sometime ;D

This problem would be solved by inviting the winner and runner up of the OFC Nations Cup into Group A/B of AFC Fourth Round Qualifying.

This time around that would have been New Caledonia and Tahiti. Both guaranteed to finish last in either group. New Zealand would also struggle to finish higher than 3rd.

The AFC playoff would then become a game to qualify.

The bye problem would be solved, AFC would not have to change their qualifying structure, the Oceania problem also solved.

come on man it is ridiculous to think that FIFA would ever do this... it is too logical and reasonable for FIFA to ever consider it...

But what you have done there is make the OFC Nations Cup even more important and actually taken a whole bunch of games away from the region in one big swoop.

Imagine n0w that AFC just used Asian Cup and then put them 16 qualifiers into another round of qualfieirs with say CAF, what happens to the teams that didn't qualify for Asian Cup? The Jordan's, Syrias etc, do you expect them to not play football in a competitive environment for 3 years or so?

This is roughly what FIFA had suggested for 2010 (only 1 OFC nation tho' and 11 AFC teams). Rumour at the time had it the suggestion was cut down by the big AFC countries who wanted free dates for friendlies.

But feel free to blame FIFA for everything.

J