Last night my mom and her good friend (both 70-something) remarked that Hillary needs to step down at the end of the year, take a couple years off, and get a makeover. At first, I thought they were talking about a makeover of her political persona (which i felt she had already successfully achieved), but they meant that she looked tired and out of shape. They were suggesting that she, and Chris Christie as well, needed an extended stay at some celebrity fat farm.
People saying that were clueless. No way a pro-Iraq war president was going to coast to victory in 2008. Also, keep in mind WHY Obama is president and won reelection. There are alot of reasons, but two of the biggest are his opposition to the Iraq War, and his call on the auto bailout. If there's gonna be someone who can take on Hillary, it would have to be someone who has that kind of sledgehammer in his/her arsenal.
If Castro doesn't want to come out a loser he's gotta wait. Cornyn will be up for re-election in 2014 and in 2020 he could retire, which ups the chances for Castro if its an open seat. 2018 will have the gubernatorial race which still might be too soon.
For everyone talking up Hillary in 2016, she'll be 69 by then, so 73 in 2020 for re-election. Just something to consider.
And as pointed out by GS, she's not aged well the past 4 years. We, as a country, may have successfully re-elected a black man, but a haggard, surprisingly frumpy-looking woman? I don't know if we've come that far....
Personally, I don't think her age would impair her performance. I don't think she's out of touch, and I don't think her health will be close to failing. Active women in their 70s do pretty well nowadays. And having watched the mistakes of other newly elected Democrats, I'd be delighted to send someone as experienced as Hillary to the White House in 2016. A harder question for me to speculate about is whether being older will limit her appeal to younger voters.
Decent lists. Add Susana Martinez, Rob Portman, and Bob McDonnell for the GOP. Things can change obviously, but I don't see Cain or Scott being relevant at all. Add Mark Warner, Antonio Villaraigosa, and Kirsten Gillibrand for the Dems.
What you lose in the young vote, you may gain in the women vote. Aging white independent/moderately conservative women will vote Hillary before Obama. But this really goes beyond demographics. Hillary will have the fundraising clout. She would have the best campaign staff. She would have the political shrewdness to navigate a contested race. She passes the foreign policy test. The age issue could be addressed with a VP pick ... maybe a Deval Patrick or Cory Booker
Susana Martinez would be a flop. So would Villaraigosa. Both parties need to be careful not to push a weak candidate just because of race. Rubio seems like a skilled Latino pick. Not sure I see any others on either side just yet
Maybe, maybe not. I could see both of them running. Villaraigosa is certainly interested, though. Christie and Rubio are easily the favorites at this point for the GOP. Rand Paul could be a wildcard if he continues on with his recent libertarian streak. The one to watch though is Christie, especially as he will be up for re-election in 2013.
Let that woman stay in the Senate until the day she dies -- ala Ted Kennedy. She'll be a greater force in there in the long run than she would be in a term or two as president. Really, I want her stay in the Senate for a long, long time.
There's no appetite for a Tea Party president right now even if your last name is Cruz. Even if you get a 10 point Hispanic bump it would be offset by a further erosion of women, young people and independents
I'm not sure you lose the young vote. I can see Hillary being a kind of Betty White who enjoys huge popularity in the later stages of her career across the generations. While its not absolutely determinative, Hillary's mother was sharp as a tack and fairly active well into her 90s. I raised age as a concern when McCain ran last time, and I would raise it again with Hillary, because I always look at voting for someone I expect to be in office for eight years. But to date, she seems to be more than on top of things, and her schedule the last four years would have exhausted many of us who are quite a bit younger than her.
Any speculation on whether Hillary will stick around at State for the 2nd term? That job seems uniquely mutually exclusive with running for president, simply due to the insane travel requirements.
Agreed. Hillary seems to grow more competent as the years go by. If she takes a few years off and then makes a run, I can see an energized base that will lead her straight to the Dem nomination. Her age is not an issue IMHO. I like the list that Matrim55 put out there. GOP Field: Chris Christie Jeb Bush Marco Rubio Rand Paul Herman Cain Rick Scott Bobby Jindal Huntsman and Christie are on the outs with the GOP. I see Rand Paul and Herman Cain as fodder for the primaries. Traitor, heretic, etc have been lobbed at Christie and elephants have a long memory. They won't forget how Governor Christie threw Romney under the bus because of Hurricane Sandy. The party base looks less at the destruction of Sandy and more of Obama and Christie being pals.
In real life perhaps they do, but not in politics. Three years is a long time, and if they think Christie is their best shot, they will fall all over themselves for him.
Rand as a VP pick, maybe. He's got social conservative baggage to hurt him with moderates, and foreign policy libertarianism to hurt him with the base. I don't see him as a nominee ever.
I liken this to all those 2014 USMNT roster predictions after the last World Cup. I look forward to coming back here in 2015 and remarking at how off we all were.