Gonna change my predictions slightly. Though I know UMD wasn't nearly as good in 2013-14 as they were in 2012-13, the fact that WAS served them handily makes me think that I should probably bump WAS up into my 'mid' tier. Still think HOU will be mid-tier as well, but I'm swapping WAS and HOU's ranks in my prediction.
Alright, with nine fully predicted ladders and one partial ladder, we have enough to at least start looking at bulk statistics to see how we, as a group, are predicting the season: Code: team - avg +/- std 1. KC : 2.0 (1.1) 2. SEA : 2.4 (1.7) 3. POR : 3.3 (1.6) 4. CHI : 4.6 (1.7) 5. WNY : 4.7 (2.5) 6. HOU : 6.9 (2.2) 7. DC : 7.1 (1.1) 8. NJ : 7.3 (1.5) 9. BOS : 7.4 (1.1) With such large standard deviations on some of the middle-ranked teams, there are actually very few rankings that I can justify labeling as "outliers". I can, though, drop a #8 for CHI and a #6 for SEA, which doesn't really affect the average ranking at all. There's an obvious lower tier with DC/NJ/BOS; HOU is brushing against that lower tier, but can also distance itself, though not enough to try for a playoff spot - that is, it's those four at the bottom and the other five at the top. We think that the Shield is a two-horse race, while the last playoff spot is up for grabs.
1. Seattle 2. Kansas City 3. Portland 4. WNY 5. Wash 6. Houston 7. Chicago 8. Sky Blue 9. Boston 1/2 I can see swapping. I can see WNY dropping below 4 (Franch is a big loss) but I don't know who'd replace them. I can see Was/Hou/Chi moving around a bit. Boston and SB are my bottom at the moment, it's a coin toss on a day-to-day.
Here I go: Regular Season 1. FCKC 2. Portland 3. WNY 4. Seattle 5. Chicago 6. Washington 7. SkyBlue 8. Houston 9. Boston Playoffs · FCKC over Seattle · WNY over Portland · Final: WNY over FCKC Assessments of Strength At This Time Teams improved from 2013: Washington, Seattle, Chicago Teams remaining about the same strength: FCKC, WNY Teams not as good as 2013:Boston, SkyBlue, Portland
Regular Season 1. FCKC 2. Portland 3. Seattle 4. WNY 5. Chicago 6. Sky Blue 7. Washington 8. Houston 9. Boston Playoffs · WNY over FCKC · Portland over Seattle · Final: WNY over Portland - (Kat Williamson has the game of her life on defense)
Final Standings 1. FCKC 2.Seattle 3.WNY 4.Washington 5.Chicago 6.Portland 7.SBFC 8.Boston 9.Houston FCKC over Washington (Double OT penalty kick on bad call) Seattle over WNY(Solo returns to her childhood days) FCKC over Seattle(Nobody's happy cause FCKC shouldn't have been there, replay confirms the call) FCKC 2014 NWSL National Chu amps What it could happen!
Three more ladders! Updated stats time! Code: team - avg +/- std 1. KC : 1.8 (1.0) 2. SEA : 2.4 (1.6) 3. POR : 3.4 (1.6) 4. WNY : 4.4 (2.2) 5. CHI : 4.8 (1.6) 6. DC : 6.6 (1.4) 7. HOU : 7.1 (2.0) 8. NJ : 7.3 (1.3) 9. BOS : 7.8 (1.1) WNY/CHI and DC/HOU swap, with almost everyone's standard deviations dropping (except DC's) and HOU solidly joining the lower tier. As such, four more data points now appear as outliers: the recent #4 rating for KC, an early #3 rating for HOU, and the two early #9 ratings for WNY. Discounting outliers, the stats now look like: Code: team - avg +/- std 1. KC : 1.7 (0.8) 2. SEA : 2.1 (1.2) 3. POR : 3.4 (1.6) 4. WNY : 3.5 (0.9) 5. CHI : 4.5 (1.3) 6. DC : 6.6 (1.4) 7. NJ : 7.3 (1.3) 8. HOU : 7.5 (1.6) 9. BOS : 7.8 (1.1) WNY's standard deviation takes a HUGE drop from 2.2 ranks to 0.9 ranks, second only to KC's, which just goes to show how much general agreement there is that WNY is a playoff team (no other ratings below the two 5th-place finishes). Either way, the top 5 separate more from the bottom four as HOU slides down while most deviations tighten up; discounting outliers, CHI is left as floating in the middle of the league as the top 4 tighten even more.
Final Standings: 1. Seattle 2. FCKC 3. Portland 4. Chicago 5. WNY 6. Houston 7. Washington 8. Sky Blue 9. Boston Playoffs Seattle over Chicago FCKC over Portland FCKC over Seattle
1 Seattle 2 Kansas City 3 WNY 4 Portland 5 Chicago 6 Boston 7 Washington 8 SkyBlue 9 Houston. Seattle over Portland KC over WNY Seattle wins the prize I made a change.
Yup! Noted. =-) Also, my apologies to @WPS_Movement - my previous post said only three new ladders had been recorded (when it should have been four) as I hadn't thought to check for hidden content. Your ladder is now in my books!
Anyway, with WPSM's ladder, ForeverLost's ladder, and kernel's updated ladder, that's effectively three more, so let's update the stats again, shall we? Code: team - avg +/- std 1. KC : 1.8 (0.9) 2. SEA : 2.3 (1.5) 3. POR : 3.3 (1.5) 4. WNY : 4.4 (2.1) 5. CHI : 4.8 (1.5) 6. DC : 6.6 (1.2) 7. HOU : 7.1 (1.9) 8. NJ : 7.4 (1.3) 9. BOS : 7.9 (1.1) We're not getting much movement anymore - unsurprising, since we've got 14.5 ladders now. The top 3 have tightened up ever so slightly, and the bottom two have similarly tightened but in the other direction. With the shrinking standard deviations, it now appears that a #4 rank for DC is now outside the realm of reasonable grouping. So discounting our seven outliers, the stats now look like: Code: team - avg +/- std 1. KC : 1.6 (0.7) 2. SEA : 2.1 (1.2) 3. POR : 3.3 (1.5) 4. WNY : 3.7 (0.9) 5. CHI : 4.5 (1.2) 6. DC : 6.8 (1.0) 7. NJ : 7.36(1.3) 8. HOU : 7.39(1.5) 9. BOS : 7.9 (1.1)
I guess its time to give my prediction since the full rosters are now out. I'll list out strengths and weaknesses I see and why I think some teams will do well and others will struggle. FC Kansas City Blues: Yes this is a partial homer pick, so you will have to forgive me on this but I do feel justified at keeping them top of the league ladder. Here is why. System is the same from last year, so all the players will be not only familiar with it but should even be more comfortable with it. It wasn't until halfway through the last season, that FCKC's attack possession oriented system came into its own. Lauren Holiday and Erika Tymrak will dominant the middle of the pitch especially with Tymrak now starting for the full season. The defense could be an issue since it did get weaker with the loss of Sesselman and Scott, but the attack looks dangerous and should provide quite a few goals for the team. Portland Thorns FC: It was a toss up between the Thorns and the Reign but I decided that despite the loaded roster of Seattle, Portland has gotten stronger in the off season with the acquisition of Nadine Angerer and Amber Brooks and now with Veronica Boquete coming in May, Portland's midfield looks much stronger then last year. Question marks about Alex Morgan's health will be a concern but if Morgan gets back into match fitness sooner rather then later, Portland should be a threat for the top of the ladder board. Seattle Reign FC: Made many great trades and acquisitions and improved substantially from the back line to the midfield and forwards. Added much depth to a roster that did not have it last season. Big question marks on how they will use Sydney Leroux since playing top could be a mistake and stifle the possession offense that Seattle employed last season. Leroux if placed on the wing with Naho Kawasumi playing the other side Beverly Goebel at top would seem to be the more logical choice since Goebel and Naho have already shown great chemistry in the preseason. But that leaves the question where Megan Rapinoe plays since the midfield is already heavily congested with players like Kim Little, Jessica Fishlock and Keelin Winters. Because of this, Rapinoe has to play as a wing left forward which means Leroux MUST play at top and Naho would take over in the right wing forward position and that could spell trouble as Leroux problems in building possession could stifle the attack in the middle. Seattle would be forced to use the flanks to do their build ups and that could make Seattle very predictable and more easily defended. Chicago Redstars: Surprise, the Redstars get into the playoffs this year. Their overall team is much improved from last year. Stronger forwards, defense should be healthier since last season, 3 defenders went down to ACL and other season ending injuries. And more importantly Lori Chalupny will not have to do all the build up for Chicago, she will finally have desperately needed help. Vanessa DiBernardo will be a big improvement in her attacking talent and if Julie Johnston is placed at holding mid, Chicago will get that more tougher in the midfield and be able to control the middle of the pitch better with her there. Chicago will need to wait for Christen Press and may miss 9 matches until she arrives, which could throw this prediction out but when she does arrive, I expect Press and Adriana Leon to form a very dangerous 1-2 punch since both a talented technical players that can feed the ball to each other, add in Chalupny, DiBernardo and Johnston in the midfield and you have a dynamic play making group of players that can create for each other. Western New York Flash: Adriana Franch, her injury is a sizable blow to the club. There are people saying, a team can get by with a lesser keeper, I disagree if we are talking about making it into the top 4 teams in the league. Franch's injury is just too big to ignore and that should lose the Flash several close games that they may have either won or tied and they will lose enough points to miss the playoffs. Despite their attacking talent, I don't think they can recover from that injury. Houston Dash: Their pressing, possession attacking style of football will be pleasing to watch. In fact I think they will surprise a lot of teams and get some upsets. What will hold the Dash back is that 3 national starting defenders are missing from their squad. Sesselmann is out for the season with an ACL tear, Whitney Engen and Meghan Klingenberg won't be with the club until May at the earliest. At least 9 games and against the Houston Aces which they dominated, their defense looked very disorganized and against a top flight club, would get shredded and exposed. Offense could be a problem since Ella Masar isn't known as a goal scorer, so relying on her to score goals could be tricky. Kaelia Ohai should be a force but she will need help at top and Bock and Edwards are not attackers by trade. They will need a general in the midfield to organize the attack. Could that fall to Teresa Noyola? That will be the question since they need leadership to driving the offense. Washington Spirit: The Spirit are not in the basement this year. They have improved, no one can deny that. Their midfield has improved dramatically with the addition of Yael Averbuch, Veronica Perez and the first pick Crystal Dunn. I expect Dunn to be a starter and playing in the midfield. With Diana Matheson playing on the wing probably as a forward or in a 4-4-2. Christine Nairn probably will slot in as a forward with Renae Cuellar either at top or on wing. The defense might be a question mark since it was a weakness last season. Boston Breakers: Lots of question marks here. They at least have Lisa DeVanna but I don't think that will be enough, Lianne Sanderson will need to provide a substantial boost to scoring for the Breakers since there are very few options other then these two. Can Nkem Ezurike provide the necessary scoring to alleviate these problems? Compared to the midfield, the Breakers midfield is one of the weaker ones in the league. Its going to take quite a bit of effort on their part to overcome the disparity in talent compared to the rest of the league. Skyblue FC: Sadly for Skyblue they will take a fairly giant fall down the ladder to the bottom of the standings. Lisa DeVanna leaving has hurt their offense, they already lost a defender to injury Haagsma to injury and they have no veteran forwards at top. They will be relying on 2 rookies, Jonelle Filigno and Maya Hayes. Filigno at least has 3 years of international experience but Skyblue played a very direct game last year catering to DeVanna's speed who lead the league on offsides. They could try doing the same with Filigno and Hayes who both are very fast. But that style of football with their inexperienced front line could back fire badly. A good defense will shut down a long ball offense quickly. The offensive problems will probably be the big achilles heel for Skyblue and that should see them last on the league table. Playoffs: FC Kansas City vs Chicago Redstars: Winner FC Kansas City Portland Thorns FC vs Seattle Reign FC: Winner Portland Thorns FC Championship game: FC Kansas City vs Portland Thorns FC: Winner FC Kansas City
Regular Season 1. Seattle 2. KC 3. Portland 4. WNY 5. WAshington 6. Chicago 7. Houston 8. Boston 9. Sky Blue Play-offs: WNY over Seattle and KC over Portland. KC bests WNY in the final. No real basis for these opinions, I think a lot will depend of defenses ability to gel. IMO defenses are generally weaker this year in general.
1. FCKC 2. Seattle 3. Portland 4. WNY 5. Chicago 6. Washington 7. Houston 8. Sky Blue 9. Boston FCKC is very deep and I think will be the strongest when NT's are gone. I think with Portland short Morgan, Vero and Heath, they will start slower. But I think they will finish stronger. Concerns with Seatlles formation and if Leroux can handle the middle like that. Outside forwards doing a lot of work. Portland over Seattle FCKC over WNY Portland wins again
1. Portland 2. Seattle 3. Chicago 4. WNY 5. K.C. 6. Houston 7. Boston 8. Washington 9. New Jersey Playoff Chicago over Seattle Portland over WNY Chicago over Portland There, put that in your pipe and smoke it! P.S. What do I know?
Oh, crap! Now I gotta make sure my weekly predictions all "add up" to ensure my end of season predictions jive mathematically! This is hard work!
1. Seattle Reign 2. New York Flash 3. Kansas City 4. Portland 5. Chicago 6. Sky Blue 7. Washington 8. Houston 9. Boston Playoffs Portland defeat. Kansas City Reign defeat New York Flash Championship Reign defeat Portland Going with Reign this year to win it all, maybe the first double or "treble" lol. Reign have a really strong squad and this year should be different since the national team players will be there from the start. Some very impressive signings as well.,
@airbornerocks Your playoffs don't match your season standings. Portland would be playing the Reign and KC would be playing the Flash.
You don't get bonus points if your weekly predictions end up matching your ladder! I don't want to penalize people if key players get injuries halfway through the season, or if chemistry suddenly happens (or disappears) on a team. The ladders here are completely based on impressions. As holden pointed out, your playoffs don't match your ladder, so I can't count what you've posted, but predictions are open all the way to first kick, so you have time to repost something new! =-) Speaking of fixing playoffs, I don't have playoff predictions from @weelilbit , @MRAD12 , or @newsouth - if you want to give yourself the best opportunity for points, you should finish your predictions!
Now that the rosters are out, it's my turn. I didn't want to rush my predictions, since that would be foolish. And I'll go 9-1 to change things up a bit . If y'all want to skip the analysis, the short version is at the end. 9- SkyBlue FC. If I had made these predictions a few weeks ago, I'd have this team higher in the standings. They'd still be out of the postseason, but not last. But after looking at their roster, very little on there convinces me they'll be above the cellar this season. Positives- The defense looks to be solid once again. An injury or two won't hurt that part of the team much. If they stick to their preseason plan and keep O'Hara at LB, having her back there alongside a healthy Rampone could make a difference in a close match this season. And they have a solid number one in Cameron. She's one of the more underrated keepers in the league, and should give the SkyBlue backline a lot of confidence. Negatives- Offense looks sketchy at best, non-existent at worst. Ocampo did well last season in somewhat limited time, and Schmidt started last season strongly. If those two can bring that form, it may take some of the pressure off the rookies. But if one or both struggle early, that's going to put the scoring burden on Hayes and Filigno, neither of whom have played at this level before. We saw last season with the Spirit how placing that responsibility on rookies was a bad idea. Another thing that concerns me about SkyBlue is the lack of physicality in the midfield. When they're facing teams that have the physical play like WNY and Chicago, who's going to be the enforcer in the midfield? None of SkyBle's middies are physical players. If they can't figure that out, it's going to be very easy for their opponents to gameplan. 8- Boston Breakers. Even with their apparent weaknesses, they still get a slight edge over SkyBlue. Positives- Even after losing Leroux and Simon, this is still a decent attack. Scoring may be more by committee this season, but Boston does have some options. The addition of DeVanna will help ease some of the concerns if she's in form, and Ezurike is a promising talent that could surprise some teams. O'Reilly will never be a top 5 scorer, but she can still provide a goal here and there, and Sanderson looks in good form with England. She may be called on to add a few more goals this season. The one area that's most improved from last season's opener is having a firm number one in Naeher. She was good last year, and will need to be on her game for Boston to have a chance. Negatives- It doesn't take a genius to see where Boston is vulnerable. That backline is a mess. When your only true CB is Whitehill, that's a problem. Moving Jones to CB is a move that doesn't inspire much confidence. And the midfield is also a concern. It looks decent, but if they don't gel quickly, that's going to put a lot of pressure on the backline, and I could see them easily leading the league in goals conceded. 7- Houston Dash. With few exceptions, expansion teams don't generally get to the postseason, and while Houston has some promise, it won't be enough to make the top 4. Positives- Well, the offense has looked good in preseason, even though all those results should be taken with a grain of salt. Ohai has been the team's top player in preseason, and could make a case for that elusive NT callup with a strong season. Ochs was one of the few bright spots for the Spirit last season, and with a great W-League campaign under her belt, she might get the goals that were denied her last year. Bock and Edwards are a strong pair in midfield, and will provide veteran leadership and stability in there. And if McLeod can summon her Canada form, that could keep them in some games. Negatives- Backline, again. Until Engen and Klingenberg arrive and settle in, it's going to be an adventure back there. Rookies and underachievers could cause a few blowouts. Add that with some players like McCarty and Washington who were duds for their previous clubs, and it may be a long summer for the newest member of the NWSL. 6- Washington Spirit. Their additions will keep them from the bottom, but some work still needs to be done. Positives- The Spirit have improved in almost every area of the field. The most obvious improvement is their offense. Signing Taylor was a big boost, as she has scored goals by the bucketload no matter where she's played. Weimer was a steal for them, and should provide a great 1-2 combination with Taylor. The additions of Nairn and Averbuch in the midfield will give Matheson more freedon and ease the pressure off the Spirit backline, and of course we can't forget about Dunn. Her uber-versatility is going to be key for Washington's postseason hopes. If the backline stays healthy this season, they have potential to be one of the top backlines in the league, with the likes of Krieger and Gayle manning the flanks. Negatives- Not all the additions have been positive. I'm still baffled by the trade of Ochs for Adams, who has never been that good as a pro. She's done okay in preseason, but odds are greater for her to stumble early and find herself on the bench. Sandvaj has looked shaky in preseason, and may struggle with adjusting to the speed of the American style of play. Lindsey had a strong season for Canberra, but at 34, there may not be much left in the tank. And although Harris can't really be considered a negative, she struggled at times last season. Washington is going to need her to find her 2011 form if they want to succeed. 5- Chicago Red Stars. Improved as well, but a start similar to last season may put them out of the playoffs. Positives- Two words: Christen Press. Arguably the biggest import Chicago has gotten, look for her to boost the offense when she comes in. No matter her current scoring issues with the USWNT, she's a goal-scoring machine at club level. She, along with the likes of Leon, Hoy, and possibly Tancredi could give Chicago a fairly potent attack. Chalupny will once again be the spark in the midfield, and having great options up top will take some of the pressure off her to score. Mautz was perhaps the biggest success story of the much-maligned supplemental draft, and will provide an additional scoring punch from midfield. Negatives- I'm beginning to sound like a broken record, but it's the backline yet again. With both Hemmings and Santacaterina recovering from injury, and Vandenbergh taking the season off, the backline looks questionable. Johnston was a no-brainer draft pick, but she's untested at this level, and the rest of that line will be manned by unproven young players and Quon, who's only had one season under her belt. Another concern is the age of some players. LeBlanc had perhaps her best club season ever with Portland, but at 34, how much does she have left? And will Tancredi be in form when she arrives? If neither one is up to par, Chicago may end up outside the playoffs once again. 4- Portland Thorns FC. Yeah, I put Portland 4th. It's my effing list, so zip it. Positives- Sinclair, Sinclair, Sinclair. Nothing more need be said. Oh, there's more? Okay, then. How about Vero? The 2011 WPS MVP will be a huge addition once she comes in. A game changer in every way. Bringing in Brooks at DM will help plug the hole that was left by Edwards' departure. Huffman has versatility, which should be useful wherever she's played. Van Hollebeke, while a disaster at times for the NT, can be solid, if a bit prone to giving up dumbass fouls. And Heath will be an upgrade for the midfield once her PSG stint is over. Negatives- Take a wild guess- it's the backline. That seems to be a common theme for most teams this year. Outside of VH and maybe Moros, it looks less firm this season. Marshall had a great postseason, but was shaky at times in the regular season. She'll need to bring her postseason form for Portland to not leak goals like a sieve. Then there's the brick-footed snail that is Long. She'll need to show the skills she supposedly has, or she should go to the bench. Angerer may also fall into the negative category, surprisingly. She's fantastic internationally, but her club form has been lacking recently, and her age is a concern. But by far the biggest issue has to be Morgan and her injury. How long will she be out, and will she be as effective when she does return? If not, much of the scoring burden will fall on Sinclair. 3- Western New York Flash. I really hope I'm wrong about this, but it may prove a difficult task to retain the Shield this year. Positives- This should be obvious. The Flash led the league in scoring last season, and with improved depth up top, are poised to do so again. If Abby can regain her fitness, look for her to challenge for the Golden Boot again this season. There's also the threat of Lloyd, who is playing the best soccer perhaps of her career, and Kerr and Adriana on the flanks. The top 4 worked very well together last season, and if they can click like that again, few defenses can stop them. On most other teams, Kete would be locked in as a starter, but may start on the bench and provide a late game speedster to run at tired backlines. The midfield was incredibly strong last season, and with all 3 starters back, look for them to dominate in that area once again. Zerboni, Salem, and Lloyd are a strong unit, and Vicky will be key off the bench, or starting when Lloyd is unavailable. Negatives- While not as weak as some other teams, there are question marks on the Flash's backline. The departure of Johnson left a big hole next to Taylor, and it remains to be seen if either Barczuk or Williamson can fill it. Palmer looks to have the starting job at LB, but she's untested at this level. And the big question is can Williams be as good for the Flash as AD was? She has experience, but may take time to get up to speed. 2- Seattle Reign FC. So many changes, but may fall short due to international callups. Positives- Where do I start? Much like the Spirit, Seattle made vast improvements to their roster. Biggest upshot is obviously the offense. Leroux, while a feast or famine forward, did score 11 goals last season. She might not hit that number with all the other options around, but that's half the combined total Seattle had all last year. Having Rapinoe for an entire season will also help tremendously, with only a slight concern for her still present inconsistency. Naho has been superb in the preseason, and will provide quite a few assists on the flank. Kim Little is an extremely underrated player by the mainstream soccer world, and she and Fishlock could be deadly together. And that's just the tip of the iceberg. I'll leave it at that, or this post will be 20 pages long. Negatives- Backline, AGAIN. The individual pieces are good, but collectively, something has been missing. Central defense, even with the drafting of Frisbee, looks to be a weak spot. And when the NTers are gone for international duty, the roster looks a little thin. It's kind of nitpicking a bit, but still a concern. 1- FC Kansas City. If they've fixed their issue with conceding late goals, they take the Shield. Positives- Perhaps the most complete unit. They were already a strong team. Add in Hagen, another goal machine, and Gorry, who can playmake with the best in the world, although her lack of size may be a liability in a physical league, and this roster has number 1 written all over it. The second best scoring duo of 2013, MVP Holiday and ROTY Tymrak will threaten every backline in the league. DOTY Sauerbrunn will anchor a strong backline, and KOTY Barnhart brings a steady presence between the pipes. Not to mention the role players like Mathias, Robinson, and Buczkowski. Negatives- The starting backline is great. Beyond that, nothing. Andonovski had better pray there are no injuries, or that strength will quickly turn to weakness. And I had Barnhart as a strength, but the minor injuries she seems to be picking up recently may be a concern with Santiago also injured, and the other backup is an unproven rookie who did not appear to be that strong in preseason. Short version for those that don't want to read my ramblings: 9- SkyBlue 8- Boston 7- Houston 6- Washington 5- Chicago 4- Portland 3- WNY 2- Seattle 1- KC Postseason prediction: KC over Portland. WNY over Seattle. WNY over KC.
1. Seattle Reign 2. New York Flash 3. Kansas City 4. Portland 5. Chicago 6. Sky Blue 7. Washington 8. Houston 9. Boston Playoffs Reign defeat Portland Kansas City defeat New York Flash Championship Seattle Reign defeat Kansas City @holden thanks and Siberian THUNDER!
Not that I disagree with your overall ladder much @BlueCrimson , but just one point of order: This year, six of their first nine are against the projected bottom three, while last year six of their first nine were against the eventual playoff teams. If anything, it'll be July that kicks them out of the postseason this year, not April+May. Thank you @airbornerocks ! Recorded. =-)
Which is why it's even more important for Chicago to get off to a good start. If they don't, it's an uphill battle for them with needing to get points against top teams.
sorry, somehow I had a brain cramp there (merged quote with my reply, above) - my reply: ok, thanks SiberianThunderT! Thanks too for putting this all together!