Same here. Forecasting/budgeting is very much based on this. The concept of not being able to judge till the results are in, makes no sense in my field, or many others.
Yeah, I don't remember anyone being vocal at the time that it wasn't a good signing. IIRC, he was scoring for Honduras and had a couple of nice goals at the Olympics, so I think I might have remembered a nay-sayer. Then again, I can't be arsed to look through all the old posts, so if LDD says so, I'll believe him. Still, regardless of the outcome, Bengston is the type of signing we should be looking to make. Just because they haven't had a good track record, this actually looked like the kind of signing that might start to balance that out (even if it would take several years of 1-2 good signings to do that). Yeah, I know the high-end contracts in the past were almost always guaranteed, and I would think that any DP contract would also be. If his agent didn't insist on it, he should be fired.
George, you can accuse me of quibbling if you like - You wouldn't be the first. But in our profession, we address hypothetical problems all the time. We ask if there is a reasonable likelihood of a problem arising (for example, using clinical prediction rules such as the CHADS score), and ask how we can prevent the bad outcome from occurring. It seems to me that the posters here are just taking the available evidence accumulated over years of observation, and making thoughtful, reasonable predictions.
I can be useful to use the hypothetical in forming an opinion but it is fallacious and unwise to trust any hypotheticals as a fact.
Doc that "disease" doesn't have to be terminal - if the revs go through a SKC-like transformation, it's very possible this club could be successful enough that those same fans no longer need to be treated for "opticalanalopathy". Well said, Jon. Doc fails to acknowledge our hippocampus works when it comes to the evidence -years of recurring observations, trends and results that form the basis of these reasoned predictions. We remember.