Discussion in 'Borussia Dortmund' started by footyfan1, Jul 9, 2013.
A lot of time before we get to our draws, etc.
Hopefully, the new CL season won't end this way:
We've all been there..
Ah so the final is in Lisbon this year, does anyone know where the Europa league finals are in 2014? I can't remember, and I'm too lazy/busy to check .
I remember that CL final 2015 is in Berlin and EL final is in Warsaw but this one escapes me.
With the current squad I can see us definitely reaching the quarter-finals at least.
I would be completely happy with a quarter final berth, but of course I'm secretly hoping we can pull a Bayern and somehow win the thing the year after losing the final! I feel like all the pieces in our squad are there this year. Let's not forget, we're probably going to be seeded in third place in the group phase, so we're in for another tough group! So first things first - let's make the knockout phase, we'll see from there!
According to these rankings we're 31st now.
System of counting the points are sketchy, it says we've received 33.5 points for our CL campaign, with only Munich receiving more (36.5)
Way I've calculated it was like this:
4 points: Group stage participation
8 points: 4 wins in group stage, each worth 2 points
2 points: 2 draws in group stage, each worth 1 point
4 points: Qualifying from group
4 points: 1 point each for reaching Round of 16, Quarters, Semis and Finals respectively
3 points: Winning and tying Shakter (2:2, 3:0)
3 points: Winning and tying Malaga (0:0, 3:2)
2 points: Winning and losing to Real (4:1, 0:2)
That adds up to 30 (you can check my math if you're skeptical since I didn't bother) and the page isn't too specific about knockout stage point earnings. Perhaps we receive extra points for topping our group? I don't know.
Out of the 30 teams ahead of us:
Ranked 6th: Arsenal is in the playoff round
Ranked 7th: Inter finished 9th and does not qualify for Europe
Ranked 10th: Valancia finished 5th and qualifies for the EL
Ranked 12th: Lyon is in the 3rd qualifying round
Ranked 14th: AC Milan is in the playoff round
Ranked 15th Schalke has to play a playoff round
Ranked 17th Liverpool does not qualify for the CL
Ranked 21st Zenit St. Petersburg is in the 3rd qualifying round
Ranked 23rd Sporting Lisbon has not qualified for the CL
Ranked 24th Tottenham Spurs qualifies for the EL
Ranked 25th Dynamo Kyiv did not qualify for the CL
Ranked 26th Villarreal CF did not qualify
Ranked 28th PSV plays a 3rd qualifying round
Ranked 29th Sporting Braga (Por) did not qualify
Ranked 30th Metalist Kharkiv plays in the 3rd qualifying round.
Out of the possible remaining teams we're ranked 23rd. Out of 32 teams divided into 4 pots the lowest we're seeded is 23rd placing us:
Pot 1: 1-8
Pot 2: 9-16
Pot 3: 17-24
Pot 4: 25-32
For us to be ranked 16th all of the teams above must be knocked out in the CL prelims.
So it's pretty much safe to say we're in pot 3 for this season.
But if we have a similar season to this one 20-25 points would put us at a total of 80-85 points which would be enough for spot 15-16ish so with a strong CL campaign we'd see ourselves in pot 2 most likely next season.
Good stuff thanks. Your math is correct on the 30 points. We received an additional 3.858 points based on 20% of the Germany country coefficient. In this case 20% of 17.928.
Cup qW qD qL #W #D #L Bonus Points Average
Germany 7 teams 6 1 1 33 20 15 33 125.5 17.928
1 Bayern München CL 0 0 0 10 1 2 12 33.0
2 Borussia Dortmund CL 0 0 0 7 4 2 12 30.0
16 Schalke 04 CL 0 0 0 3 4 1 9 19.0
31 Hannover 96 EL 4 0 0 3 4 1 0 14.0
43 VfB Stuttgart EL 1 1 0 3 3 4 0 10.5
48 Borussia Mönchengladbach EL 1 0 1 3 3 2 0 10.0
51 Bayer Leverkusen EL 0 0 0 4 1 3 0 9.0
Guys you can use this http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/ for coefficients and stuff, it is very accurate and update 1-2 hr after a european match
Pot 3 is baaaaad. It feels like we are going to be in another group of death.
Spot on man! GREAT POST!!!
Honestly boys I will route for bvb and any other German team to go as far as possible as I have always done..
GL to bvb and GL to all German teams!!
Same here until they play Bayern
Another klassiker anyone
"We should win this comfortably"....
Famous last words from a Madrid fan prior to your tie.
Im all for another Klassiker
I feel like quarters or semis are realistic goals. When it comes to Europe, though, a lot of it comes down to luck and we should've been beaten by Malaga were it not for a truly heroic comeback. So you never know. And I'm not scared of groups of death, can't be worse than last time. Our reactionary style is very well-suited to taking on teams who are used to dominating possession and try to take us head-on (the exception being Bayern who adapted their style to beat us), which is why we stacked up so well against the likes of Manchester City and Real Madrid yet struggled against the likes of Malaga. So I wouldn't be scared of a group of death, if a group of death consists of the likes of Real Madrid or Manchester City as much as I would be scared of a group which consists of the likes of AC Milan or Malaga.
I honestly would be somewhat scared of Chelsea, I feel having faced us 4 times, the last time Mourinho got his tactics right, and City has Pelligrini (not sure if I spelled it right) and this time he has a "better" squad to deploy his tactics against us. So honestly a similar group to last year (Real and City) would worry me.
What about a team that wouldn't want to attack us dead on and would rather prefer to attack on the counter. I don't think there are much of those in pots 1 and 2, but running into a pot 4 team like that could really trouble our group stage advancement should they have the quality to make us stumble.
I think I'll reserve my full thoughts until the summer is over, the squad is set, and the group stage draw is finished, but it depends on the strength in depth and what the main focus is in the league on how far Dortmund could go in Europe. If the objective is to finish top four in the Bundesliga, then I feel they can make another run in Europe and still pull out the required results in the league to stay up there like they did last season. However, if the objective is to challenge Bayern for the title, then the big focus will be on the league matches and Champions League will take a backseat as a secondary priority. Again even then, it'll depend on the squad depth and what kind of shape the options are for the season whether they can go beyond the group stages. We'll see what happens, there's still a good six or seven weeks left till the window closes.
Don't think we'll see a run like last year's for quite some time unfortunately, particularly if Lewandowski leaves this summer.
That being said, a Pot 3 draw should result in a slightly easier draw than the Pot 4 one we had last year.
Very true. However, I also believe that challenge is what propelled us toward the tournament run we went on.
Also being finalists might give them that hunger boost this year...
When is the draw?
I hope that every team from Germany can reach as far as possible in international competitions until they're playing against us. The mentality about this in England and Spain is different than in Germany, I don't know why.
Probably because German clubs are historically overlooked, and a lot of uneducated loud mouths who follow the English game would like you to know that the EPL or La Liga is "teh best". So we rally together as Buli fans to prove them wrong.
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