2012 Race for the White House II: The Two Towers

Santorum's razor.

 

Sometimes they believe their own BS to the point that they believe those affected will or should believe it too.

I think he was reaching out to the Great Silent Majority of Puerto Ricans who yearn to speak English at home and work...

I imagine stranger notions have been discussed in the sactum Santorum...

 

He just needed a little vacation and wanted to stay in the headlines.

 

Revised delegate count from AP...

Romney 521
Santorum 253
Gingrich 136
Paul 50

54 delegates are up in Illinois on Tuesday, but Santorum failed to file slates in four congressional districts, so the maximum he can win is 44.

 

CNN
519 239 138 69

NBC
443 184 137 34

CBS
493 218 120 42 (2 Huntsman)

Real Clear Politics
516 236 141 66

FOX
This is the stupidest and most useless election tracking website out there. I can't find any numbers.

ABC
501 253 136 50

The numbers are all over the place. No one really knows.

 

I know the Associated Press includes superdelegate preferences in their tabulations.

NBC, with the lowest numbers, contains this caveat...

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_(United_States)_presidential_primaries,_2012#Results

How you can not use Wikipedia on things like this is beyond me (well, double-check before you quote, but still).

 

At this point, who cares who wins the GOP nomination, none of them will be President.

At this point, with Virginia eight points away, North Carolina three points away, and Colorado/New Mexico/Nevada anywhere between 5-15 points away, where does Mitt think he gets to 270? Michigan? Minnesota?

 

If Obama is actually up 8 in Virginia and 3 in NC, the race is effectively over.

 

Shit, the simple fact that North Carolina is a battleground state again doesn't bode well for the eventual GOP nominee.

 

Exactly. If NC, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, and the like are swing states, rather than Nevada, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa, there is no path to the White House for whatever GOP candidate comes out on top. Even if the GOP candidate wins Florida and Ohio, the math just doesn't work.

 

My feeling in Indiana is that population wise we've shifted back to the nutty Right, so we'd be unlikely to go the same way as in 08 right now. That said, I'm interested to see the turnout here this year. I suspect many things will be different than four years ago.

 

How so? Have the demographics of Indiana changed a lot? Because as polarized as things are right now, I have a hard time imagining more than a few '08 Obama voters supporting Mitt, let alone Santorum, in '12...

 

Most people who were prone to vote for Mittens voted for John McCain anyway. The map if Indiana in 2008 compared to prior elections posted by NYTimes suggests that Obama got his support from the big cities. Not the suburban areas where working-class whites tend to live. In 2004 Kerry got 50% of the county that houses Indianapolis, but in 2008 Obama got 64%. That's a big difference. If the cities turn out in 2012 like they did in 2008, it will be very hard for Romney to play offense anywhere. Indiana may go red in the end, but I don't think it will go red by much.

 

That is my suspicion too. Indiana is still pretty much the same folks that lived there in '08, and probably '04, but the results are all about who actually turns out to vote.

And while I highly doubt that the huge number of '08 Obama supporters will replicate itself, GOP voters aren't likely to flock to their precinct to vote for Mittens either.

 

How dare you say that this man is uncharismatic!

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1KCFLeUaxsQ"]Mitt Romney Speech at CPAC 2011: America Needs a "New President" - Complete Video 2/11/11 - YouTube[/ame]

 

Romney's Gumby-like moral flexibility to take any position on any subject based entirely on the desire to blow smoke up the ass of his current audience, coupled with his complete inability to actually connect authentically with any audience is truly breathtaking.

 

Obama won IN on Republican voters. I don't think many of the same ones will cross the aisle again...at least they didn't suggest any willingness in the midterms. That Lugar is successfully being painted as a leftist right now doesn't bode well. We've traditionally been a moderate state, but it's getting Kentuckyish.

 

The city and county borders for Indy are the same, including most of the working class suburbs. The suburbs outside the city limits have the money. There were very few people who really got upset about the union busting and Planned Parenthood controversies statewide.

 

So it looks like Romney will win Illinois handily. Here's something to keep in mind. In Illinois in 2008, 899,422 Republicans voted. With 81% of the vote in, it appears that the GOP vote will be roughly 50,000 voters short of their 2008 tally. Again, I have to ask; wasn't this the election where overwhelming anti-Obama turnout propelled the Republicans to victory? Where are the voters? Why can't they even match John McCain? WTF???

 

Was that in the 2008 general elections, or the 2008 GOP primaries?

Sorry if its a stupid question.

 

Primaries. John McCain got over 2 million votes in the general.

 

Ya know-- for a party which supposedly has been leaking membership, and is contesting primaries among demented clowns from outer space for what appears to be the privelege of taking a Goldwater caliber beating in November, and which has spent the last ten days offending both the largest and the fastest growing demographic groups in the country-- well a drop of 6% in the primary turnout doesn't seem like all that bad a number...

 

I'd say that, even with the downward trend in membership and self-identifieds, the core is as fervent as ever. They're losing numbers among the moderates, but the loyalists aren't going anywhere.

 

Illinois 99% reporting
Romney- 428,434 (46.7%)
Santorum- 321,079 (35%)
Paul- 85,464 (9.3%)
Gingrich- 72,942 (8%)
Others- 9,127 (1%)

Associated Press delegate totals:
Romney 563
Santorum 263
Gingrich 135
Paul 50