2012 Race for the White House II: The Two Towers

People made similar predictions in '08 and weren't even given "best case scenario" by many. They just laughed. Then those "best case scenarios" turned out to be not so best case... Final tally: 365 to 173

We'll see in November, but so many factors currently favor the President. The GOP base is... (what's the opposite of motivated?) by their nominee. The Democratic base is very motivated by the Tea Party '10 cum intensification of the culture war. Romney couldn't possibly be less authentic, particular when you stick him on a stage next to Obama. Women and Latinos want absolutely nothing to do with him (outliers aside). The economy continues to grow, albeit slower than it could due to obstructionism. Down ballot issues and races, particularly where the GOP nominee is uber-right wing, are going to hurt the GOP.

Basically, without a complete European meltdown that takes the world economy with it, I'm telling you he wins reelection easily.

 

I'd take issue with a few of your assertions, but that's neither here nor there. You are correct in that polls in May aren't especially relevant, as well as the fact that we certainly will see in November.

 

It's going to take a worst case scenario for Romney to win at this point. Unfortunately, that worst case scenario looks like it might happen thanks to Europe backsliding into recession, but Romney is going to have to carry almost all of the swing states in order to win this.

 

I know someone was looking for an actually delegate count and not a projected count. This site has a better view of whats going on.

http://thereal2012delegatecount.com/

 

I'm not smart enough to respond to this post. Clearly, I don't know what a prediction is, or that there can be "current trends," or that Obama losing states he won in 2008 without picking up new ones is a "best-case scenario." Either I'm completely brain-dead, or you are, or we both are, because nothing you wrote makes sense.

 

Not sure I follow. I'm just not ready to make a prediction until we get closer to the election. However, his "best-case scenario" as I put it seemed to indicate that he thought that every single swing state would go blue. Unless my math is off, which is entirely possible.

 

Based on RCP's numbers, he had 27 of the 125 swing votes go to Romney. I'm guessing he had AZ, MO, and IA go Romney and the rest go Obama. I don't think that is too far out of bounds, but I'd be tempted to take IA out and put NC in.

 

That's where I'd put my money. I don't know how NC will go, but I'm guessing/hoping the Amendment One vote lit a fire under the urban/college town liberals.

 

Arizona and Missouri are very borderline "swing" states. I would be absolutely shocked if those went blue. The rest not so much. Hence, it looks like he had nearly every true swing state going blue.

 

Ans most of the rest aren't swing either. Obama's lead in those states is just as large Romney's lead in AZ and MO. The only true swing right now is Florida.

 

Johnson wins New Mexico and...New Hampshire?

 

Sorry, maybe I was being too subtle. You may not be ready to make a prediction yet, but people far more capable and competent can and are. A 349-EV vote for Obama is not out of line, given how few states have switched for re-election bids in modern presidential politics. In fact, since 1948 (the first postwar election effort), incumbents have won virtually the same states. Eisenhower won 47 of the same states. Reagan won 45 of the same states. Bush I won 40 of the same states as Reagan. Clinton won 47 of the same states. Bush II won 47 of the same states. The only exceptions were 1964 and 1972 when the incumbent faced an abnormally weak opponent (feel free to compare 1960 to 1968), and in 1980 when Carter was the first incumbent unseated (Ford is an obviously unique case but feel free to compare 1968 to 1976). The truth is that we have pretty stable regionalism in this country, and stable voting blocs that take a generation or two to realign or dealign. Obama will very likely win roughly the same number of states. If I were a betting man, I'd bet he ekes out a win in Arizona and North Carolina, loses Indiana and Florida, and hangs on to the rest of the '08 coalition. I also predict that many Plains states revert to their 2000 and 2004 mean (which is what we are noticing with these national polls showing more support for Romney than Virginia or Ohio state polls).

See how those are predictions? Or are those just hopeful, 'best-case scenario' guesses?

 

Again, I will cut off my ear if Arizona goes blue. Just ain't happening.

 

Is there anyone saying it will? Even the prediction you called a best case scenario had AZ going red...

 

The post above mine.

 

I'm saying it. The Obama people will take the state very seriously.

 

Did you click on the link?

I've got Ohio and Florida going Obama. That's ballgame right there. Sure, maybe one might not fall that way, but it's gonna take some crazy shit going down for both of those states to vote Mitt. Particularly Ohio. Obama saved the auto industry and Mitt is on the record saying he'd have let it die. That's not something Ohioan's are going to forget. (It's also why Michigan, nominally Mitt's "home" state isn't even in play...)

PA being a swing state is a joke. Obama will win it by double digits.

Virginia went blue last election and I don't think it's going back anytime soon. Look at the demographics.

North Carolina is much more toss up than Virginia, but as Phat Hat noted, the recent "******** you, gay loving liberals" vote may come back to bite the GOP there.

Iowa will swing Obama, just like 2008. The Iowa GOP is a complete disaster. They couldn't get their mother to get out and vote.

Colorado: See Virginia

New Hampshire is already sick of it's GOP controlled state legislature.

What's left of the swing states?

Nevada: I'll give Mitt Nevada, even though their GOP org is just as messed up as Iowa's.

MO and AZ aren't even swing states. And winning them isn't going to save Mitt.

Errr... what's left? Obama steals a vote in Omaha like last time. Mitt steals a vote in Maine potatoe country.

I mean seriously. How do you slice it that Obama doesn't win running away?

 

Let me put it another way...

The only scenario I can envision in which Romney wins involves ALL of the following states swinging in his favor:
Ohio
Florida
Virginia
North Carolina
Nevada

If he loses ANY of those states, Obama gets reelected.

 

The economy goes into the crapper.

 

Fixed it for you. Romney needs to win the big four and then one of those five.

But it's been like this for awhile in presidential elections. The GOP has to get Ohio and Florida as per usual, and then Romney has to turn VA and NC back red. I wouldn't count on getting Arizona or Missouri, they are not really in play. Put it this way, Romney has a better shot at Michigan than Obama does at Arizona.

 

Totally. Michigan and Arizona are not at all in play.

Nor is New Mexico, but I'll give you the longshot on Iowa, Colorado, or New Hampshire.

I think we both agree (and really, I haven't seen anyone say otherwise) that the crux of the election is this:

Romney has to win Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina. If he can't win all 4, there's almost no other math that works to elect him.

 

Absolutely. But the fact that there are so many critical swing states is where I take issue with your assessment that it won't be close. There will nailbiting races in all these states on election day, especially in Nevada.

 

Sure, but when one guy starts 17 votes from the finish line and the other starts 79 away, it's going to take one hell of a lot of nailbiting to pull off the upset.