2012 Race for the White House II: The Two Towers

The next president of the United States will be inaugurated in January, 2013, and it will be neither of Obama, Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul. It will be whoever emerges from the deadlocked GOP convention.

How likely?

Almost as likely as me getting elected. Barack Obama will get re-elected. And after my post causes a big

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9fEjJ4Ecy9Q"]South Park Rabble Rabble Rabble - YouTube[/ame]

for the umpteenth time by conservatives who can't possibly think Obama can win, or by emogressives who think because they won't put up a yard sign Obama's done, I will wait calmly until after Election Day when whomever the GOP nominates gets toasted, and post a "I told you so" thread.

As somebody wrote of Michele Bachmann, "She's more sure of everything than I am of anything." Sorry to compare you to Crazy Eyes ... but you get the point.

At any rate, without your certainty, I am starting to share your view. The economy is looking up. The stock rally feels pretty genuine too. Most of our rallies since 2008 have been beaten-down stocks bouncing back to cheap after being CHEAP ... now we're seeing cheap starting to move toward avearge prices on the expectation that the economy is returning to something approaching normalcy.

By the way, whatever happened to the meme that businesses, the market, etc. couldn't function under Obama because of "uncertainty." Oh yeah, that's what happened -- it disappeared because The Chamber of Horrors and The Wall Street Journal fabricated that story out of absolute nothing, and when even the true believers wouldn't believe the horse and the crap anymore they stopped saying it, and instead moved onto new hooey that would please the true believers.

I'm still in the "the-economy-is-going-to-stall-once-again-because-of-high-gas-prices-over-the -summer-and-not-be-looking-so-good-in-late-October-so-Obama-isn't-a-shoo-in-because-the-main-factors-that-will-influence-this-election-haven't-played-themselves-out-yet" camp.

Even so, come autumn, Obama can start playing the "are you better off than you were 4 years ago" card. Because, at that point, 4 years ago we were heading for a economic cliff and were involved in two wars. We're still in Afghanistan, of course, but balancing that, we're out of Iraq, Bin Laden is dead, and there's the string of generally positive news re: the Arab Spring; money-wise, unless things truly go to shit in Europe and that leads to a serious swoon in our economy, I just can't believe that the standard "are we better off now" question will be necessarily a hard one for Obama to deal with. Economically, things were nightmarish the last quarter of 2008.

Too, the main factors that will influence this election absolutely must include the nature of the Republican candidate, and all signs point to this person being horribly flawed, if not downright unelectable.

You don't just get handed too many Presidential elections; you need to win them. And the Repub's seem incapable of making a serious run at doing so in 2012.

I gassed up yesterday and found to my astonishment that the price of Shell premium here is down .28 a gallon since last time.

Its a Prius; I only gas up middle of every other month, so thats about 60 days, but still, this anticipated gas price crisis will have to be enormous to affect northern New Mexico...

There is zero chance that Obama will emerge from a deadlocked GOP convention. So either you need to drop his name, or drop the next sentence.

At this point, I put Santorum as just under 50%, Romney just under THAT, with something like 5% that it'll be Gingrich or some brokered convention. 49-46-5, say.

I, for one, am sick of their being some Race in the White House. We should of done more to keep Hussein Obamer out of their. THe muslins and the Radical Gay Agenda won't be hard for real Americans to overcome this time.

Jealous like a mother fcker. I fill up every 5-6 days, but its my fault because I drive about 400 miles a week. Perhaps that's why I can't climb the economic ladder like I should.

I'm guessing Gingrich would be Saruman?

Obama raises $29 million for campaign, Democratic Party in January; builds fundraising pace

"The Obama campaign did not immediately provide a breakdown of the January fundraising but said 98 percent of the January donations were $250 or less.

"Many of those donors, however, are repeat contributors, meaning that their aggregate donations over the past year would exceed $250. Still, the non-partisan Campaign Finance Institute, which analyzes contributions, found that small donors, those whose aggregate contributions amounted to less than $200, accounted for 48 percent of Obama's campaign income in 2011.

"That more than doubles the small donor contributions to his campaign in 2007, as he mounted his first campaign for president. What's more, the institute found that small donors accounted for only 9 percent of 2011 fundraising for Republican Mitt Romney, who is battling for front-runner status in the GOP presidential primary and is the top fundraiser in the Republican contest."

Its way too early to think Obama has it in the bag. The campaigning for the general election hasn't even started.

Elections aren't won over issues, or the economy. Americans are too stupid to critically analyze the issues and then vote accordingly. Americans vote for whom they can "have a bear with", or who is "exactly like them". Elections are won over personality, identity politics, and fear mongering.

This election season is going to be all about negative campaigning from the super PACs, thanks to Citizen's United. Wait until Americans are bombarded with ads about how Obama has a secret plan to exterminate all god loving patriotic white people in gas chambers, and how this plan was hatched in cahoots with the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Kenya, and how he plans to ban guns, and seize property, and how the NDAA was signed to secretly execute birthers, etc, etc.

The tea party has already started a birther super PAC which is going to receive millions of dollars in funding. Just wait till the Limbaughs, the Becks, the Hannities, and the Palins start exposing Obama's secret plan to impose Sharia law in America.

You might think Obama has the youth college educated vote sealed up. But remember, these are Americans we are talking about. All it will take is one Tim Tebow endorsement of the GOP nominee and watch that demographic stampede towards the GOP column.

Of course, Obama is a master campaigner too. And his campaign staff has very smart people. I am sure they have anticipated all this, and have plans to counter them (I hope so).

One thing is certain, this is going to be the nastiest election season ever. 9 more months of insanity and absurdity, with each negative ad outdoing the previous one in outrageousness. At the end, irrespective of the outcome, America is going to be the laughing stock of the world.

RAWR!

RAWR means "I want to dance with you" in Bear, according to RFrancisR.

George W. Bush is gonna be mighty pissed.

The more I read about the GOP candidates, the more frightened I get for the USA if they win. I can see Romney bringing in some Tea Party loon as VP to try and bring them on board and going a bit that way.

Not that Obama is much better, as he supposedly has a lot of links to Goldman Sachs and the crooks who helped ruin the world's economy. He promised change, but in reality it is more of the same, just with bigger debts. How much of that was down to having to fight an increasingly stubborn and right wing GOP I do not know.

And that Rick Santorum becomes the GOP candidate.......he is becoming the President in Escape from LA!

Yep, that's the perfect match. Deranged villain who likes to hear himself talk and who grossly overestimates his power; a stooge who unknowingly carries forth the plans the true BOSS -- the eye that never blinks, the unceasing source of schemes and deception, aka Mitt.

So if Jerry Brown turns around California, would I be faulted for wanting to vote for him in 2016 or 2020?