2012 Presidential Election Poll

Discussion in 'Elections' started by Iaquinta, Nov 1, 2012.

?

Who will win?

  1. Barack Obama

    57 vote(s)
    86.4%
  2. Willard "Mitt" Romney

    9 vote(s)
    13.6%
  1. Iaquinta

    Iaquinta Member

    Jan 8, 2007
    Club:
    AS Roma
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    Tell us who you think will win the election, and why. Electoral college predictions are of course welcome.
     
  2. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

    Jun 23, 2000
    Chicago, IL
    Obama, 300 electoral votes.

    Why is obvious. The state-by-state polls indicate something in that range. It would be silly for me to forecast anything else. What data do I have that the polls do not?

    I don't do amateur brain surgery, amateur climate science, or amateur poll prognostications. I don't trust those who do.
     
    GiuseppeSignori repped this.
  3. That Phat Hat

    That Phat Hat Member+

    Nov 14, 2002
    Just Barely Outside the Beltway
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Japan
    This poll is invalid because it doesn't give me third party choices.
     
  4. Iaquinta

    Iaquinta Member

    Jan 8, 2007
    Club:
    AS Roma
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    Has Nate Silver really taken all the fun out of predictions? ;)
     
  5. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

    Jun 7, 2000
    Baltimore
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Gibraltar
    Obama 281 - 259 (I think that's right)

    It will be a good night for Democrats. They will maintain the status quo in the senate and pick up a couple of house seats (although not nearly enough to win the house)

    I will look at this as a success because I think it basically stops the Tea Party revolution. This will be the Tea Party's high water mark. Their base will never be so motivated as it has been now between 2010 and 2012 and it still won't be enough to defeat Obama and win the senate. The Republican Party will be forced to reach out to add to its base. My guess is that they will reach out to Hispanics by moderating their approach to immigration.

    A scenario where the Republican party is forced to broaden its coalition and thus diluting the Tea Party influence is a good thing. Obviously I'm not suggesting that the Tea Party is going away any time soon ... just that it's not likely to grow any bigger than it is today.
     
  6. Minnman

    Minnman Member+

    Feb 11, 2000
    Columbus, OH, USA
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I would LOVE for the scenario posited by Boloni to be what I wake up to next Wednesday. I'll hold off making at predictions, however. because I'm a gutless SOB.

    That said, if Obama does win, and we get something along the lines of the status quo in Congress, seeing what happens within the Republican Party over the next few years will be absolutely fascinating. I'm not talking about irrelevant stuff like Rush moving to Costa Rica. I mean the real shape and direction the party takes in response to (1) a crushing defeat and (2) national demographic trends that make it increasingly difficult for a party with its kind of platform to win a national election.

    To be clear, I'm in the camp that thinks the country is far better off with a serious, sane Republican Party. I just have a hard time envisioning current party leadership steering back toward the middle.
     
    FormerGermanGuy repped this.
  7. That Phat Hat

    That Phat Hat Member+

    Nov 14, 2002
    Just Barely Outside the Beltway
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Japan
    I say it's about 70-30. Either they double down on the crazy because they're desperate to keep the base they have, or they decide they want to win a national election in 2032 when Texas is blue.

    It's like a capped-out NBA team - they could keep throwing good money after bad because, hey, they still have some recognizable players who sell season tickets and they're still making the playoffs as a 6-8 seed. Or they can blow up the team and suffer through some bad seasons to give themselves a chance to go deep in the playoffs.
     
    HouseHead78 repped this.
  8. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Indeed! Plus, there's no Grimes option.

    Hail Grimes!
    I suspect that'll take another cycle or two. If Romney loses, they'll blame his lack of true conservative credentials. And then they will triple down on the crazy for at least another 4 years.
     
  9. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

    Jun 7, 2000
    Baltimore
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Gibraltar
    There's not much to blow up. The Tea Partiers aren't going anywhere. If I was the Republicans I'd be more worried about the erosion of the libertarian wing of the party in Western and Northern states. Firing the neocons and moderating on some social issues will help keep the libertarians in the party. No big social issues like abortion or gay marriage but they could start with something like unfunding the war on drugs. The Tea Partiers won't revolt and you can raise some eyebrows in the middle.
     
  10. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

    Jun 7, 2000
    Baltimore
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Gibraltar
    You could be right. But if there's a cleansing of Tea Party candidates in moderate states like Walsh, Mourdock, King, West, Akin and Bachmann it might raise the eyebrows of the ones that survive. We may get to a point where Tea Partiers who are not from bright red districts will begin to moderate for self preservation.
     
  11. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    WTF no third party option, BigSoccer joins the "Lame stream media" :p
     
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  12. That Phat Hat

    That Phat Hat Member+

    Nov 14, 2002
    Just Barely Outside the Beltway
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Japan
    Remember, whatever result we get, we have to unskew it so Obama doesn't look so good.
     
  13. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

    Jun 7, 2000
    Baltimore
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Gibraltar
    85% for Obama?

    So it's been true all along ... soccer fans are a bunch of commies
     
  14. The Devil's Architect

    Feb 10, 2000
    The American Steppe
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Gay commies
     
  15. atomicbloke

    atomicbloke Member+

    Dec 7, 2009
    Berkeley, CA
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    There is a non-negligible probability that some funny business will happen with the voting machines. Some of the electronic machines have no paper trail. It takes a flip of 5 votes per machine to flip a state and consequently the electoral college. It takes less than $30 worth of software to hack the voting machines.

    I make a living in computer security. So I am not just pulling this from my backside.
     
  16. BimmerBenz95

    BimmerBenz95 Member+

    Feb 24, 2012
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  17. FormerGermanGuy

    Mar 1, 2001
    Indianapolis
    Club:
    Fulham FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I would love to have to choose between two guys who I think would both do a good job for the country.
     
    SoFla Metro repped this.
  18. Funkfoot

    Funkfoot Member+

    May 18, 2002
    New Orleans, LA
    It's not asking who you want to win, it's asking who you think will win. No sane person thinks someone other than Obama or Romney will win.



    Of course Big Soccer does not require sanity as a prerequisite for posting.
     
  19. TheSlipperyOne

    TheSlipperyOne Member+

    Feb 29, 2000
    Denver
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Just say Knicks. You know you want to.
     
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  20. tomwilhelm

    tomwilhelm Member+

    Dec 14, 2005
    Boston, MA, USA
    Club:
    Fulham FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    303 (conservatively)

    I wouldn't be surprised to see Obama take FL and get to 332.
     
  21. Val1

    Val1 Member+

    Arsenal
    Mar 12, 2004
    MD's Eastern Shore
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    I think Obama will win, but it will closer than I'd hope, and closer than the Red Meat types thought earlier this fall. Which I think will just re-enervate the Obama-hating wing of the GOP for the next couple of years, clear until the 2014 elections. When we will have yet another Obama referendum. I don't have happy thoughts for the next couple of years. Of course, I live in red section of a blue state, so the vehemence I see is depressing.
     
  22. Dr. Wankler

    Dr. Wankler Member+

    May 2, 2001
    The Electric City
    Club:
    Chicago Fire

    I live a half a block away from the house Joe Biden grew up in. The vehemence I hear still surprises me, though it's gone down by half since the weather has gotten colder and the windows are closed so that I no longer hear my neighbor hysterically calling Obama a "lying ____________" (it varies widely) whenever he appears or is mentioned on tv.
     
  23. chaski

    chaski Moderator
    Staff Member

    Mar 20, 2000
    redacted
    Club:
    Lisburn Distillery FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Turks and Caicos Islands
    Do I need a picture ID to vote in this poll?
     
    Q*bert Jones III repped this.
  24. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

    Jun 7, 2000
    Baltimore
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Gibraltar
    That username sounds kind of commie so yes.

    Although that avatar is our preferred demographic so maybe no
     
    Matrim55 and chaski repped this.
  25. ToasterLeavins

    Mar 25, 2003
    NJ USA
    Club:
    Everton FC
    Wheres the option for Gary Johnson?
     

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