2012 NCAA Tournament

Discussion in 'Women's College' started by cpthomas, Oct 8, 2012.

  1. WPS_Movement

    WPS_Movement Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2008
    Ohai hurts ankle in final second of the match.
    Her ankle was wrapped afterwards.
    No telling if she'll miss anytime, but apparently she was in pain, and possibly emotional pain (hopefully not).


  2. kolabear

    kolabear Member

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2006
    Location:
    los angeles
    Country:
    United States
    Through the first 30 games, according to the bastardized Massey/AJ/Elo ratings, the expected win percentage for the favored teams was (.840). The actual win percentage was (.833). The average deviation was 0.7% -- The predicted result (games going to PKs counting as ties just as they are officially recorded) was 25.2 points for the favored teams. The actual result was 25 points
  3. Cliveworshipper

    Cliveworshipper Member+

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2006

    Pretty amazing. I look forward to you publishing the data for te next round...

    Before the next round.
  4. kolabear

    kolabear Member

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2006
    Location:
    los angeles
    Country:
    United States
    I should be able to. (I'm more concerned about getting in the 3rd round predictions in time because of my schedule next weekend) But note that, since it's all based on the bastardized Massey Ratings after the regular season, which is set and won't change (unless I tweak the bastardized conversion) it can really be done at any time, even reconstructed after a round without changing a thing.

    Of course, it won't be surprising if actual results deviate more than this -- small sample size, unscientific conversion to the Albyn Jones scale, etc. But this is the 3rd year, I think, I've been doing this (even without Albyn Jones' ratings) and it worked out pretty well the last couple years. Quite well if I recall.

    ***
    Here's the predictions from the 1st round, it was in post #70, page 3 of this thread:
    Press the little up-arrow thing-a-ma-jig to take you to the post.


  5. UFGator98

    UFGator98 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2001
    Location:
    Florida
    Wow, Miami(OH) with a miracle shot ties it with 9 seconds left, on to OT we go. Tennessee has to be stunned.
  6. Cliveworshipper

    Cliveworshipper Member+

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2006
    They weren't as stunned as they are now...
  7. kolabear

    kolabear Member

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2006
    Location:
    los angeles
    Country:
    United States
    Who'da thought that Miami (Ohio) would still be in the tournament and not Miami (Florida)?!
  8. WPS_Movement

    WPS_Movement Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2008
    Not that stunned Tennessee lost, even though I did pick them to win against Miami (Oh).
    Outside of Florida and Texas A&M, the SEC just ain't all that.
    Missouri is overrated. Tennessee isn't as good as they used to be (and they weren't all that great back then, but would still make the Sweet 16 quite a few times). LSU is weak. Auburn wins a giant game every once in awhile, but they are very inconsistent. South Carolina has declined. Georgia = meh. Kentucky has improved, but is not a world beater.

    The league has plenty of mediocre depth, behind Florida and Texas A&M.
    I still think the ACC, Pac 12, and WCC, have better conferences. Big East is at least equal to the SEC. Maybe even the Big Ten is stronger than the SEC, with Penn State, Ohio State, Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin. If Minnesota can stay as good as they've been (before this year), then I still think the Big Ten is stronger than the SEC.
  9. New Engalnd Nellie

    New Engalnd Nellie Member

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2008
    I just watched the Georgetown-Virginia Tech game and after one of the Georgetown players received a caution, the announcers said -more than once - that cards during the tournament accumulate. I've heard these guys before and besides being incredibly partisan, I don't think they know what they're talking about most of the time. Does anyone know if there a special rule for the tournament and what it is? Am I correct that in normal NCAA play a player has to sit out after five yellows?
  10. kolabear

    kolabear Member

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2006
    Location:
    los angeles
    Country:
    United States
    Expected win percentages for the 2nd Round:

    Using bastardized Massey Ratings unscientifically converted to Albyn Jones scale. Homefield advantage estimated at 60 rating points. (H) = favored team at home. (N) = neutral. Games assumed to be played at the #1 and #2 seeds - I'll revise this if this turns out not to be the case.

    In order of expected win percentage from lowest to highest


    seed
    favored team Home/Neutral rating opponent rating expected win pct
    4 Portland (N) 1795 Michigan 1785 0.517
    3 Wake Forest (N) 1835 Notre Dame 1745 0.651
    3 Baylor (N) 1845 Georgetown 1745 0.667
    4 Maryland (N) 1825 Denver 1695 0.711
    2 San Diego St (H) 1945 California 1825 0.777
    3 UCLA (N) 1920 Kentucky 1715 0.805
    4 Marquette (N) 1885 Princeton 1680 0.805
    2 Florida (H) 1925 UCF 1770 0.816
    1 Penn St (H) 1950 Boston College 1780 0.831
    3 Duke (N) 1885 Miami (Ohio) 1655 0.831
    2 North Carolina (H) 1925 Illinois 1715 0.867
    1 Florida St (H) 1995 Texas Tech 1745 0.896
    1 Stanford (H) 2055 Santa Clara 1800 0.899
    1 BYU (H) 1985 Auburn 1700 0.916
    2 Virginia (H) 1995 Rutgers 1610 0.956
    Texas A&M (N) 1845 Oakland 1390 0.959
  11. kolabear

    kolabear Member

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2006
    Location:
    los angeles
    Country:
    United States
    With both favored teams losing today, the average deviation jumps up to about 5%. Still okay for small sample, etc. But don't you get the feeling Cliveworshipper made offerings to the Soccer Gods today and they heard him?!
    :)

    For the 32 games, the expected win percentage was (.836). The predicted result (counting PK games as official ties in the record book) was just about 26.75 points for the favored teams, meaning either 26.5 or 27 points were equally close. But the actual result remained stuck on 25.
  12. Forgedias

    Forgedias Member

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2012
    I agree this year the SEC has had an off year, but equal to the Big East? They are no where that bad. Remember the SEC has at least beaten ACC teams in non conference play, not a single team in the Big East has done that.

    You may be right about Missouri being overrated. they did well in the beginning of the year, but have tailed off badly in the end, Tennessee isn't as bad as you say they are. They play with alot of skill, they just lost to a miracle goal that shell shocked them. Florida is probably the only team in the SEC that can take any team in the nation on and beat them, including any team in the ACC and Stanford.

    This year, ACC and Pac12 are the better conferences then the SEC. But you are not going to convince me that the WCC is better then the SEC. Florida and Texas A&M can take on any team in the WCC including the mighty BYU. And as for the Big10, the only team in the Big10 that is a legitimate contender to win the NCAA championship is Penn State. The SEC has Florida, but all the other teams in the Big10 are being highly valued, what did they do in their non conference play to give them that edge? Other then Penn State and Ohio with Ohio only beating Maryland as their one ranked win in non conference play, has any other team been that impressive? Florida played 4 ACC teams in their non conference schedule and all 4 of those teams made the NCAA tournament. They beat Duke, even though Duke hasn't played like last year's form, they still kept the bulk of that team that went to the finals.

    I think making any generalization about the SEC being an inferior conference should be taken lightly since Florida is a legitimate national title contender. Big10 has Penn State which makes the whole conference better, but the SEC has Florida and they had an equally tough schedule that Penn State had. I just don't think the Big10's other teams did that stellar in non conference play compared to the SEC. After all Ohio lost to Rutgers and Texas A&M beat them.

    Edit. Forgot about South Florida, they actually beat Miami, they didn't make the tournament with their strength of schedule.
  13. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2008
    Location:
    Portland, Oregon
    Country:
    United States
    Kolabear, I'm wondering about something. In your recent table, for some of the games at the bottom, it looks like the win likelihoods are awfully high. Using Virginia v Rutgers as an example, the table assigns Virginia a 95% win likelihood. That means one would expect Virginia to beat Rutgers 19 of 20 times. That seemed high to me, so I checked to see what the RPI's expected win percentage would be given the RPI rating spread between the two teams and Virginia hosting. It comes up, roughly, with a Virginia 85% win likelihood with the remaining 15% split just about evenly between a tie and a Rutgers win. (The Virginia-Rutgers RPI numbers are based on this year's regular season. The percentages, given their site-corrected rating difference, are based on 5 years' data -- ~15,000 games.)

    Of course, maybe a 95%-85% difference isn't significant?
  14. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2008
    Location:
    Portland, Oregon
    Country:
    United States
    Re the Forgedias-WPS_Movement discussion, here are the top conferences' average ARPIs through the end of the regular season:

    ACC 0.6047
    PacTwelve 0.5863
    BigTen 0.5772
    SEC 0.5726
    BigTwelve 0.5699
    WestCoast 0.5697
    BigEast 0.5490

    Alternatively, if you prefer Massey's ratings:

    ACC 1.88
    Pac 12 1.76
    Big 10 1.65
    SEC 1.64
    WCC 1.63
    Big 12 1.55
    Big East 1.40

    In 2012, the ACC was the strongest conference, followed by the Pac 12. There's a drop and then you have the Big 10, SEC, and WCC pretty close and maybe the Big 12 too. The Big East is significantly weaker.

    Or, if you prefer my "Improved" RPI, which has an adjustment to correct regional issues:

    ACC 0.6071
    PacTwelve 0.5945
    SEC 0.5763
    WestCoast 0.5746
    BigTen 0.5726
    BigTwelve 0.5600
    BigEast 0.5420

    This is more like Massey, with the SEC, WCC, and Big 10 being pretty close.
  15. Forgedias

    Forgedias Member

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2012
    Well the NCAA tournament will clear things up. Each bracket has all the key top teams in them. BYU, Penn State and Florida are in their own brackets. We'll see how well the three teams do as the tournament progresses.
  16. UFGator98

    UFGator98 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2001
    Location:
    Florida
    Tennessee was a one in a million shot away from advancing. They are still a quality team. That said, and I find it funny, that the 2 most aggressive and penalized teams in the league, are gone. Karma from the soccer gods? Doubtful, but UT and especially Mizzou were the yellow card mavens in the league, content to inflict their pain on teams instead of playing real futbol. They tied for the league lead in fouls and went 1-2 in yellows, over one a match. Neither coach is well liked, maybe the team play has a lot to do with that?
  17. kolabear

    kolabear Member

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2006
    Location:
    los angeles
    Country:
    United States
    It could be. My conversion to the Massey Ratings isn't scientific. But based on rating distributions back in the Albyn Jones days, neither does this seem that far off from what we saw between one of the very top teams and a team that ranked on the low end of the bubble or even perhaps below the bubble (if the AJ ratings were used for that purpose).

    And maybe the difference between what you calculate using the RPI and this bastardized Elo rating isn't all that far off, as you suggest. If you have Virginia winning 85% of the time and a tie roughly half of the remaining 15%, you have an expected win pct of 88 to 89%. Then you add in homefield and it doesn't seem so different. Not hugely different at any rate.

    Rightly or wrongly, Massey just isn't rating Rutgers very highly, #63 in fact, below several schools that did not receive an at-large bid from the Committee. They're lucky to have been included and lucky again to have drawn Colgate in the first round (pretty remarkable when you think of all the tougher teams some of the seeded teams had to play in the first round)

    Of course, we've already had an upset close to this magnitude in the tournament: Oakland advancing on PKs over Ohio State.
  18. kolabear

    kolabear Member

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2006
    Location:
    los angeles
    Country:
    United States
    Y'know, Rutgers is an interesting case, which I should've suspected and, since cpthomas brings them up, I should say something about that and the limitations of an Elo system for predicting. Rutgers is a wildly inconsistent team which produced very inconsistent results over the season. There's a couple of them every year.

    To put it in a nutshell, they are one of the rare teams that did noticeably better against higher-rated teams than lower-rated teams. So I can see some sophisticated system that was really geared towards prediction (such as for gambling) - Sagarin's Predictor system, for instance, recognizing that and lowering the odds of Virginia, say, winning. But that's not the objective of the systems that we're putting to the test (put another way, it's not what we should expect from these systems: RPI or Elo) Or maybe it should be the objective!?!?

    I'll try to post some numbers a little later.
  19. New Engalnd Nellie

    New Engalnd Nellie Member

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2008
    Does anyone know the tournament card accumulation rule? Also, am I correct to assume at least half of the second round games (those not involving the hosting team) will not be televized or does hosting require streaming all the games?
  20. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2008
    Location:
    Portland, Oregon
    Country:
    United States
    Rather than set out the entire rule here, I suggest you go to the NCAA's Rules of the Game here: http://www.ncaapublications.com/productdownloads/SO13.pdf

    Start out on page 61 and review Rules 12.11 (yellow cards), 12.12 (red cards), and possibly 12.15 (illustrative examples). Whatever the fact situation you're checking out, you should be able to find the answer there.
    Nacional Tijuana repped this.
  21. New Engalnd Nellie

    New Engalnd Nellie Member

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2008
    Thanks!

    PS. No situation in particular - I noticed a pile of cards given out at the Baylor game and something the commentators said at the Georgetown VT game and I wondered if it really mattered.
  22. New Engalnd Nellie

    New Engalnd Nellie Member

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2008
    So for those that are interested - if you earn five yellows in the regular season you must sit out the next game - whenever that is - post season tournament/NCAA tournament/the following year. I remember Michigan in 2010 had at least one player who had to sit out or perhaps two. However once you are in the NCAA tournament you can wait until you've accumulated 8 yellows , including those accumulated earlier in the season, before you must sit out. Not sure why the VT commentators were so concerned about this rule as the yellows were already accumulating during the season and the limit went up in post season. Obviously double yellows in a game are different.
  23. IKNOSOCR

    IKNOSOCR New Member

    Joined:
    Nov 12, 2008
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Country:
    United States
    Well things are balancing out in the soccer world- outside of the big 4 -6 teams that we are always talking about. Parity is being established Summit Conf.(Oak) team beats Big 10 ( Ohio St); MAC (Miami) beats SEC (Tenn), OVC (UT Martin) takes SEC (Kentucky) to OT. Just shows that good players are dispersed throughout conferences. Some players elect go to lesser known schools because of lower high school GPA; ACT scores; want to stay close to home/ friends etc- doesn't mean they a lesser players.
  24. Wayne Famous

    Wayne Famous Member

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2012
    Club:
    FC Bayern M√ľnchen
    Country:
    United States
    They should keep the yellow rule for the entire season including postseason so hack teams like Baylor, Mizzou, etc. can't get away with what they do.
  25. cachundo

    cachundo 2011 National Champions

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2002
    Location:
    Stanford
    Club:
    Manchester United FC

Share This Page