2012 NCAA Tournament

Discussion in 'Women's College' started by cpthomas, Oct 8, 2012.

  1. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Joined:
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    Location:
    Portland, Oregon
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    United States
    Now for the #4 seed review. This one was tricky.

    I ranked the teams' records against other teams in the brackets as follows. Consistent with what it appeared to me that the Committee had done with other seeds, I significantly discounted (almost ignored) ties, even ties at away sites. The more I think about this, for away ties, the less I agree with it; but doing it comes close to producing results consistent with the Committee's decisions. I don't know that they really did that, just that when I do it I get very similar results to theirs. Also, in ranking the teams I valued volume of good results as well as the quality of the results since it looks to me like the Committee might have done that. So, here are my ranks for records against teams in the bracket:

    1 Maryland
    2 Boston College
    3 Portland
    4 Pepperdine
    5 Ohio State
    6 Tennessee
    7 Marquette
    8 Santa Clara (hurt by the devaluation of ties, in particular away tie with #4 BYU)
    9 Notre Dame (only one win against bracket teams v #11 Santa Clara)
    10 Texas A&M
    11 Texas Tech
    12 Michigan (hurt by the devaluation of ties, in particular away tie with #3 Penn State; but also no other quality results)
    13 UCF

    Plugging these numbers into my system, which also figures in head to head results and results against common opponents, I came up with the following:

    Portland ahead of 10 teams
    Maryland 9
    Pepperdine 9
    Tennessee 8
    Ohio State 7
    Boston College 7
    Santa Clara 5
    Marquette 5
    Notre Dame 4
    Texas A&M 4
    Texas Tech 3
    UCF 2
    Michigan 2

    This is consistent with the Committee's decision so far as Portland and Maryland are concerned, as they received #4 seeds. But, what about Pepperdine and Tennessee? Is there an explanation for why Ohio State and Marquette got seeds and they didn't?

    I think a possible explanation, that makes some sense, relates to conferences and conference strength. Here are the conference average Adjusted RPIs for the top 7 conferences:

    1 ACC .6097
    2 Pac 12 .5863
    3 Big 10 .5772
    4 SEC .5726
    5 Big 12 .5699
    6 West Coast .5697
    7 Big East .5490

    Looking at teams' regular season conference positions and their conference tournament positions, the teams likely involved in the decision finished as follows:

    Ohio State, Big 10, 2nd place regular season, 1st place tournament
    Marquette, Big East, 1st place in regular season and tournament
    Pepperdine, West Coast, tied for 3rd place
    Tennessee, SEC, 3rd place regular season, tied for 5-8 in tournament

    So far, the Big East had no seed, the Big 10 and SEC had one each, and with Portland "in" the WCC had two seeds. I can see the Committee saying the co-#1 from the Big 10, and the regular season and conference tournament champion from the Big East, should get seeds. This would bump Tennessee out and leave a question as to which of Pepperdine and Maryland also would go out. Maryland's record against teams in the bracket is far superior to Pepperdine's, which would give the nod to Maryland and take Pepperdine off the seed list.

    I have no idea whether this is what the Committee did, but if it is, I would not quarrel with it. (I believe similar reasoning got last year's #25 Tennessee a seed.)


  2. Cliveworshipper

    Cliveworshipper Member+

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2006

    There are two things that might have prevented a redshirt - if she played any minutes in the second half of the season, of if a doctor wouldn't certify she was still injured.

    Maybe she wants to help her team towards a championship.
  3. UFGator98

    UFGator98 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2001
    Location:
    Florida
    She's a redshirt senior. The likelihood of a 6th year was prob slim, and I think she wanted to do everything g possible to get back and help her team, this year.


    Gators looked great, not allowing a shot and creating numerous chances in a 2-0 win. They are really playing beautiful soccer right now.
  4. WPS_Movement

    WPS_Movement BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2008
    Oh, I had no idea she had already redshirted in the past.
    She wants to get on with her life, I'm sure.
    Who knows, maybe she's burned out by college soccer.
    How many former women's college soccer players even continue to follow women's college soccer after they're done playing? Only the ones that get into coaching seem to.


  5. UFGator98

    UFGator98 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2001
    Location:
    Florida
    Watching Portland-WSU. Normally, I think Portland is a very savvy, soccer smart fan base. No clue who the female analyst is, but she is a flippin moron. WSU has outshot, outplayed and outhustled Portland, and going into OT, she says WSU is probably tired by being outplayed and that should favor the Pilots. I like Portland. I like their style and tradition and their fans are awesome, but this analyst is an idiot and doing her best Fox News impersonation. I mean, this girl is ridiculous to listen to.
  6. raiderD15

    raiderD15 Member

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2011
    I turned my mute button on. I can understand the announcers being biased, especially if they're working for the school's website instead of ESPN or Fox Sports channel, but this woman is literally yelling, "NO!" and "UGHHH!" when Wazzu saves a Portland shot or something goes wrong with Portland. Take the Fandom down a notch, please.
    Anyway, after a combined 7 missed penalties, Portland goes on to the next round. Wazzu had three chances to win in the shootout, but Portland's goalie saved each one.
  7. UFGator98

    UFGator98 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2001
    Location:
    Florida
    What a drama filled PK session between the Pilots and Cougs. The Pilots announcer is still a moron :) Who is that woman? I would like to tweet her. She sounds like she may have played the game at some point, and homerism is fine, but she was Helen Keller watching the match. Kudos to Portland, the keeper made big time saves in PK's, but WSU was the better side all match regardless of what the analyst declared. I should have muted it, haha.
  8. raiderD15

    raiderD15 Member

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  9. WPS_Movement

    WPS_Movement BigSoccer Yellow Card

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  10. thesoccerphantom

    thesoccerphantom Member

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    Location:
    Dallas Texas
    Are any of the games this afternoon or this evening streaming video ?
  11. WPS_Movement

    WPS_Movement BigSoccer Yellow Card

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  12. thesoccerphantom

    thesoccerphantom Member

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    Location:
    Dallas Texas
  13. Cliveworshipper

    Cliveworshipper Member+

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2006

    If you click on a game at the NCAA.com interactive bracket, a window pops up which should tell you if the game is broadcast or streamed, and one click to get there.

    Now if they would just get rid of Flash so the 100 million mobile devices that don't use it wouldn't have to jump through hoops.
  14. WPS_Movement

    WPS_Movement BigSoccer Yellow Card

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  15. WPS_Movement

    WPS_Movement BigSoccer Yellow Card

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  16. thesoccerphantom

    thesoccerphantom Member

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    Location:
    Dallas Texas
    Your right............ thank you !
  17. WPS_Movement

    WPS_Movement BigSoccer Yellow Card

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    Apr 9, 2008
    If UNC loses to Radford, it will be the biggest choke in college soccer history.
  18. WPS_Movement

    WPS_Movement BigSoccer Yellow Card

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    Apr 9, 2008
    BYU barely wins, 2-1, over Utah State.
    Santa Clara hangs on to beat Long Beach, 2-1.
  19. socdad

    socdad Member

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    Nov 9, 2011
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    Dayton, Oh
    Ohio Sate lost to Okland in PK's (1-3)
  20. WPS_Movement

    WPS_Movement BigSoccer Yellow Card

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    Apr 9, 2008
    First real upset of GoFemBurr madness.
  21. WPS_Movement

    WPS_Movement BigSoccer Yellow Card

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    Apr 9, 2008
    West BurrJinya is in some real trouble.
    They are down 2-0 in the 2nd half to Princeton.
    Princeton has the smarter girls, but this is still a moderate upset if it holds.
  22. WPS_Movement

    WPS_Movement BigSoccer Yellow Card

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    Apr 9, 2008
    The NCAA site says Colgate is beating Rutgers 1-0.
    When clicking on the streaming video link, the score on the bottom of the live feed shows 1-0 Rutgers leading instead.
  23. WPS_Movement

    WPS_Movement BigSoccer Yellow Card

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    Apr 9, 2008
    Miami vs. UCF, going to penalty kicks.
  24. WPS_Movement

    WPS_Movement BigSoccer Yellow Card

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    Apr 9, 2008
    UCF wins in penalty kicks.
  25. WPS_Movement

    WPS_Movement BigSoccer Yellow Card

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    Apr 9, 2008
    West Virginia cuts the deficit to 2-1.
    8 minutes left.
    Can they get the tying goal?

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