Original Post: http://enbsports.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-nasl-projected-standings-and.html Using the same method that I used to produce the 2012 MLS Projected Standings based on Statistical Expectations - http://enbsports.blogspot.ca/2012/03/2012-mls-projected-standings-based-on.html with some assistance from my partners at jugglethenumbers podcast (http://jugglethenumbers.weebly.com/) here is my projected standings based on statistical expectations for the upcoming 2012 NASL season. Team Wn-Dr-LS Pts Carolina 15- 6- 7 51 Tampa Bay 12- 9- 7 45 San Antonio 12- 6-10 42 Minnesota 10- 9- 9 39 Puerto Rico 9- 9-10 36 FT Lauderdale 8- 9-11 33 Edmonton 9- 6-13 33 Atlanta 7- 6-15 27 Projected Top Goalscorers using Expected Statistics: Campos (San Antonio) 15 Garey (Carolina) 14 Adderley (Puerto Rico) 11 Bracalello (Minnesota) 10 Denissen (San Antonio) 9 Expected Top Assist Provider (based on one assist per goal) Denissen (San Antonio) 10 Foley (Puerto Rico) 9 Saiko (Edmonton) 6 Zimmerman (Carolina) 6
2012 NASL Depth Charts Atlanta Silverbacks - http://enbsports.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-nasl-depth-chart-atlanta_09.html Carolina Railhawks - http://enbsports.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-nasl-depth-chart-carolina.html FC Edmonton - http://enbsports.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-nasl-depth-chart-fc-edmonton.html Fort Lauderdale Strikers - http://enbsports.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-nasl-depth-chart-fort-lauderdale.html Minnesota Stars FC - http://enbsports.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-nasl-depth-chart-minnesota-stars.html Puerto Rico Islanders - http://enbsports.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-nasl-depth-chart-puerto-rico.html San Antonio Scorpions - http://enbsports.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-nasl-depth-chart-san-antonio.html Tampa Bay Rowdies - http://enbsports.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-nasl-depth-chart-tampa-bay-rowdies.html
How much does the accuracy of the statistics depend on player turnover? In their first game, Atlanta had 3 starters that haven't played in the league before, I expect that number to go up as some of their others signings become available and match fit.
for the last 5 yeas i do statistics for all players in the NCAA and also do statistics for players in 60 leagues worldwide so I would say I had previous information for about 90% of the players in the NASL. I currently doing the same work for USL Pro and that is about 70% That being said the depth of data doesn't really compare to say the MLS or EPL so there is some concerns about an accurate projection. Although since I'm part of a podcast that discusses NASL and USL Pro I thought it be worthwhile to attempt something. On a related note Antigua in the USL Pro has the exact same roster from last season with no turnover so be interesting to see how different their stats are from the year before. Here are the USL Pro Projections - http://enbsports.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-usl-pro-projected-standings-and.html Club Gp Wn-Dr-Ls GF-GA Pts Orlando 24 13- 7- 4 34-21 46 Richmond 24 13- 6- 5 40-26 45 Wilmington 24 12- 4- 8 39-27 40 Rochester 24 10- 6- 8 31-26 36 Harrisburg 24 9- 8- 7 32-28 35 Charleston 24 9- 7- 8 31-28 34 LA Blues 24 7- 9- 8 31-30 32 Charlotte 24 8- 6-10 31-33 30 Antigua 24 7- 6-11 29-36 27 Pittsburgh 24 7- 4-13 24-36 25 Dayton 24 3- 5-15 18-49 14 DELICATE Richmond 13 GRIFFIN Orlando 11 BUDNYY Wilmington 11 TOURAY Harrisburg 10 BANKS Wilmington 9 DAVIS LA Blues 8 O'CONNOR Orlando 6 HERRERA Charlotte 6 ZAMUDIO Rochester 6 WATSON Orlando 6 GORRES Richmond 5 CHIRISHIAN Wilmington 5 PATERSON Charleston 5
