This happened, so I guess the East teams are "set" in that we know who will be in the playoffs, just not what seed. Congrats to DCU in particular. Sporting would have to lose at home to Philly, but if they do, DCU could even win the Eastern Conference with a win @ Chicago. Wow.
Here are the updated Eastern Conference numbers after tonight's results; corrections are always welcome. Keep in mind that I am not taking the goals scored tiebreaker into account, even though it is pretty much settled at this point. Code: EASTERN CONFERENCE Rank Team Pts GR MP TN MN T4 T3 T2 1P SS 1 SKC 60 1 63 ** ** ** ** ** 1 -- 2 DCU 57 1 60 ** ** ** 1 1 7 -- 3 CHI 56 1 59 ** ** 1 2 3 -- -- 4 NYR 54 1 57 ** ** 3 6 -- -- -- 5 HOU 53 1 56 ** ** 5 -- -- -- -- 6 CLB 49 1 52 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 7 MON 42 1 45 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 8 PHL 36 2 42 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 9 NER 32 1 35 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 10 TOR 23 1 26 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Congratulations to SJE on clinching the 2012 Supporters' Shield.
Eastern Conference scenarios for the final week, this time applying the goals scored tiebreaker assuming no changes in the current rankings; corrections welcome: SKC finishes 1st with a win or draw vs PHL, or a DCU loss or draw at CHI. DCU finishes 1st with a win at CHI plus an SKC loss vs PHL. DCU finishes 2nd with a win or draw at CHI plus an SKC win or draw vs PHL. DCU finishes 3rd with a loss at CHI plus an NYR loss or draw at PHL. DCU finishes 4th with a loss at CHI plus an NYR win at PHL. CHI finishes 2nd with a win vs DCU. CHI finishes 3rd with a draw vs DCU plus an NYR loss or draw at PHL, or a loss vs DCU plus an NYR loss or draw at PHL plus a HOU loss or draw at COL. CHI finishes 4th with a draw vs DCU plus an NYR win at PHL, or a loss vs DCU plus an NYR win at PHL plus a HOU loss or draw at COL, or a loss vs DCU plus an NYR loss or draw at PHL plus a HOU win at COL. CHI finishes 5th with a loss vs DCU plus an NYR win at PHL plus a HOU win at COL. NYR finishes 3rd with a win at PHL. NYR finishes 4th with a loss or draw at PHL plus a HOU loss or draw at COL. NYR finishes 5th with a loss or draw at PHL plus a HOU win at COL. HOU finishes 3rd with a win at COL plus a CHI loss vs DCU plus an NYR loss or draw at PHL. HOU finishes 4th with a win at COL plus a CHI loss vs DCU plus an NYR win at PHL, or a win at COL plus a CHI win or draw vs DCU plus an NYR loss or draw at PHL. HOU finishes 5th with a loss or draw at COL, or a win at COL plus a CHI win or draw vs DCU plus an NYR win at PHL.
Here are the updated Western Conference numbers; only the hosting order of the playoff rematch between SEA and RSL is still to be settled. SEA (at LAG) is 5 ahead of RSL (vs VAN) on goals scored, so they will almost certainly take 2nd place with an equal or better result. Code: WESTERN CONFERENCE Rank Team Pts GR MP TN MN T4 T3 T2 1P SS 1 SJE 65 1 68 ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 2 SEA 56 1 59 ** ** ** ** 4 -- -- 3 RSL 56 1 59 ** ** ** ** 4 -- -- 4 LAG 51 1 54 ** ** ** -- -- -- -- 5 VAN 42 1 45 ** ** -- -- -- -- -- 6 FCD 38 1 41 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 7 COL 34 1 37 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 8 POR 33 1 36 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 9 CHV 29 1 32 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
If you're Seattle or RSL, do you care that much? I might think it better to sit my players, if the only reward is the second leg.
Other things at stake would be moving/staying ahead of DC and Chicago for potential MLS Cup home field advantage, and moving into 3rd place overall, which will mean CCL qualification if either SJ or KC reach MLS Cup.
Tony Edwards had the same impression that '99 NY had -34 GD as well, : http://www.ussoccerplayers.com/ussoccerplayers/2012/10/questions-goal-difference.html
Also makes sense given that they'll have a bye to the quarters, it's not like they'll play right away.
SKC has clinched 1st place and will face the winner of the wildcard game in the Eastern Conference semifinals, hosting the 2nd leg. There are 27 potential combinations of results on Saturday that will determine the other match-ups in the playoffs. Here are the possibilities, assuming that none of the goals scored tiebreakers change from how they would be applied currently. 2 scenarios (7%): If NYR loses or draws at PHL, DCU wins at CHI, and HOU wins at COL, then the wildcard game is CHI-NYR (CHI hosts) and the other semifinal is DCU-HOU (DCU hosts 2nd leg). 3 scenarios (11%): If NYR wins at PHL and CHI wins vs DCU, then the wildcard game is DCU-HOU (DCU hosts) and the other semifinal is CHI-NYR (CHI hosts 2nd leg). 6 scenarios (22%): If NYR wins at PHL and DCU wins or draws at CHI, then the wildcard game is CHI-HOU (CHI hosts unless CHI loses vs DCU and HOU wins at COL) and the other semifinal is DCU-NYR (DCU hosts 2nd leg). 16 remaining scenarios (59%): The wildcard game is NYR-HOU (NYR hosts unless HOU wins at COL) and the other semifinal is DCU-CHI (DCU hosts unless CHI wins vs DCU). So far NYR has 54 goals, DCU 52, HOU 48, and CHI 45; so there is only a slight chance of a reshuffle in this order that would affect the final standings.
Exactly, there are only very small chances of a total GS reshuffle occurring this weekend. It would take something like NY winning 1-0 at Philly and DC losing 4-5 at Chicago for United to claim the 3 seed ahead of NY as the 4 seed (with the team tied on 57 points). (Or something like CHI losing but scoring 3 more goals than a winning Houston side this weekend, for CHI to overtake HOU on the GS tiebreaker if both teams finish on 56 points.) (But what I am most interested in seeing is a NY shutout loss at Philly and then HOU and Colorado playing to a 7-7 tie, or higher, so HOU grabs the 4 seed with 54 points but more GS than NY.)
It's official: Following the conclusion of 2012 Regular Season, a new record has been set for the "Injustice Gap" (9 points: E6 CLB.'s 52 vs. W5 VAN.'s 43), topping the previous record set in 1999 (8 points: W5 S.J.'s 37 vs. E4 MIA.'s 29).
The real question, was Pando sand-bagging his way through the regular season (No goals in 62? shots not from the penalty spot - before bagging the game-winner in MLS Cup) to change the odds. Now that he's been banned for life by FIFA, his whole career is suspect.
We had a big discussion on this in the Galaxy forum, consensus was he sucked the whole season then won big on a prop bet for first goal scorer in the MLS Cup final.
Also noteworthy is the fact that Columbus missed the playoffs entirely despite earning more points this year (52) than the team that finished in first place (SKC) did last year (51).
Time for a 2013 edition? If I've done my figuring correctly, DC United currently has a tragic number of 3 for the Supporters' Shield race. (It would be 2, but RSL doesn't have any games left against Colorado, KC, or the Red Bulls.) Their playoff tragic number is 7.