2012 MLS Magic and Tragic Numbers

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by aletheist, Sep 3, 2012.

  1. Earthshaker

    Earthshaker BigSoccer Supporter

    Sep 12, 2005
    The hills above town
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yes, we have played at the Giants stadium in SF. Lost to Houston 1-0 very early in the season for our only "home" loss. But, way too early to talk about these things.
     
  2. holiday

    holiday Member+

    Oct 16, 2007
    yeah, i thought so. my pick would be stanford, but the gridiron season makes the playing surface difficult to set up (pointyball markings and bumpiness). the other two aren't my idea of what mls cup needs.
     
  3. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member+

    May 31, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    So New England can be eliminated this weekend with a loss to DC or with it they tie and Columbus win.
     
  4. DoctorD

    DoctorD Member+

    Sep 29, 2002
    MidAtlantic
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I like conference-based standings. It's easier to keep track of which games are relevant for my team.

    The real problem with the East is my team sucks.

    The BigSoccer problem is that too many posters think that losses in April and May are meaningless because "only end-of-the-season games matter".
     
    henryo and Jasonma repped this.
  5. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Jun 26, 2007
    They mattered to Toronto, at least...
     
  6. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member+

    May 31, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    I think what you mean prefer simplicity over fairness. I understand that. It's just not a really valid argument of why conferences are better, but rather a personal hangup.

    On the other hand, a single table is even more simple and more fair (not trying to derail the thread, I'm just saying....I am aware of the travel issue and balanced scheduling).

    I don't know, it seems pretty reasonable to like close playoff races. It's not that end of season matches matter less, it's that you want a race. In fact, MLS has intentionally tried to create that by stacking divisional matches at the end of the year (I actually like this a bit, despite my opposition to divsions generally). It gives a more tense "playoff like" atmosphere to the six pointers at season end. Even Vancouver-Dallas should be pretty good this weekend.
     
  7. aletheist

    aletheist Member+

    Nov 17, 2010
    Olathe, Kansas, USA
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Here are the updated numbers; corrections are always welcome.
    Code:
    EASTERN CONFERENCE
    Rank Team  Pts   GR   MP   MN   TN   SS
      1   SKC   51    6   69    9   28   24
      2   CHI   50    6   68   10   27   25
      3   NYR   49    6   67   11   26   26
      4   HOU   46    5   61   14   20   29
      5   DCU   44    6   62   16   21   31
      6   CLB   42    6   60   18   17   33
      7   MON   39    4   51   23    8   --
      8   NER   28    5   43   --   --   --
      9   PHL   27    8   51   35    8   --
     10   TOR   22    5   37   --   --   --
    WESTERN CONFERENCE
    Rank Team  Pts   GR   MP   MN   TN   SS
      1   SJE   56    6   74   **   **   14
      2   SEA   48    6   66    2   31   27
      3   LAG   46    5   61    4   26   29
      4   RSL   46    5   61    4   26   29
      5   VAN   37    5   52   13   17   --
      6   FCD   36    4   48   17   12   --
      7   COL   29    5   44   24    8   --
      8   POR   28    6   46   25   10   --
      9   CHV   28    7   49   25   13   --
    
     
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  8. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    edwardgr and bunge repped this.
  9. athletics68

    athletics68 Member+

    Dec 12, 2006
    San Diego & San Jose
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It is way too early to be talking about such things. But we may not have many options given that Oakland isn't available (the Raiders play less than 12 hours after the MLS Cup would conclude), and Stanford may not be available if they go on to host the Pac-12 championship game (which is a possibility after they beat Pac 12 favorite USC this weekend) which would be held less than 24 hours before the MLS Cup at Stanford Stadium. That leaves only the two SF stadiums (AT&T Park and Candlestick Park). And neither is a very good option compared to Buck Shaw.
     
  10. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And Stanford doesn't even need to host, they just need to still be in the running two weeks before the Championship when MLS has to set the location of MLS Cup.
     
  11. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member+

    May 31, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    For Wed/Thursday matches, I believe nothing can be set (eliminations/clinchings), but a lot of numbers can be drastically reduced. Seattle will have a MN of 1, with a Chivas loss. San Jose will take their "effective MN" for the quarters down to 1 with a win. Philly would be whiddled down to a TN of 3 with loss on Thursday. And of course, DC can take a huge step towards playoff qualification with a win. Unfortunately, there aren't any real six pointers, most battles consist of one team in the thick of it, and one team that's almost eliminated.
     
  12. RapidStorm

    RapidStorm Member+

    Jan 30, 2005
    Denver, CO
    I'd argue VAN-COL is a "6-pointer". VAN wins, and COL's TN is reduced to 2 points. COL wins, and they're suddenly only 5 back of VAN with 4 games to play, which means they'd theoretically have a shot at the playoffs, even with the disgusting number of losses they've accumulated this season.
     
  13. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member+

    May 31, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Sorry, I was only counting midweek games. But to be honest, Colorado is more like Philly than a legitimate contender right now. Spade a spade and all that.
     
  14. RapidStorm

    RapidStorm Member+

    Jan 30, 2005
    Denver, CO
    I didn't notice the "Wed/Thurs" lead-in for your post, my bad.

    I'm not claiming Colorado is good or a contender - spades and all. But comparing them to Philly in this case isn't quite the same, as Philly now has to, somehow, make up 18 points in 8 games on the 5th place team in order to make the playoffs, and have DC and Montreal somehow not gain any points, either. In the weaker West, somehow Colorado has just 8 points to make up in 5 games to make the playoffs, their next game happens to be against the team they need to make up those points against, and they only have to worry about DAL not gaining any points either. Philly is a much crispier toast than Colorado is.
     
    nlsanand repped this.
  15. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member+

    May 31, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Good point.
     
  16. aletheist

    aletheist Member+

    Nov 17, 2010
    Olathe, Kansas, USA
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Here are the updated numbers; corrections are always welcome.
    Code:
    EASTERN CONFERENCE
    Rank Team  Pts   GR   MP   MN   TN   SS
      1   SKC   54    5   69    6   25   19
      2   CHI   50    6   68   10   24   23
      3   NYR   49    5   64   11   20   24
      4   DCU   47    5   62   13   18   26
      5   HOU   46    5   61   14   17   27
      6   CLB   45    5   60   17   15   28
      7   MON   39    4   51   23    6   --
      8   NER   28    5   43   --   --   --
      9   PHL   27    7   48   35    3   --
     10   TOR   22    5   37   --   --   --
    WESTERN CONFERENCE
    Rank Team  Pts   GR   MP   MN   TN   SS
      1   SJE   57    5   72   **   **   13
      2   SEA   48    6   66    1   31   25
      3   LAG   46    5   61    3   26   27
      4   RSL   46    5   61    3   26   27
      5   VAN   37    5   52   12   17   --
      6   FCD   36    4   48   17   12   --
      7   COL   29    5   44   24    8   --
      8   POR   29    5   44   24    8   --
      9   CHV   28    6   46   25   10   --
    
    It is quite possible that four of the five playoff spots in the Western Conference will have been claimed by the end of this weekend, before any team in the Eastern Conference clinches. I believe that SKC can get there with a win over Montreal (no gimme) if CLB loses or draws at CHI (could happen) and DCU loses at home to CHV (not likely).
     
    nlsanand and Revolt repped this.
  17. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member+

    May 31, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Aletheist, did you manually adjust the MN's in the East for the CLB-DCU game? Props.
     
  18. aletheist

    aletheist Member+

    Nov 17, 2010
    Olathe, Kansas, USA
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yes--ever since someone pointed out the implications of that game to me, I have felt obliged to incorporate it into the calculations. Thanks.
     
  19. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member+

    May 31, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Congrats to LA and RSL (yes I am calling LA already). God we suck.
     
  20. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member+

    May 31, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    FYI, if you run the numbers tonight you won't need to adjust it (as DCU and CLB are not close to each other.
     
  21. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member+

    May 31, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    San Jose has clinched a quarterfinal berth. Congrats as well.
     
  22. aletheist

    aletheist Member+

    Nov 17, 2010
    Olathe, Kansas, USA
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    True, but I am waiting until after tonight's games to post the update. If DCU loses to CHV, then the adjustment will still be necessary.
     
  23. aletheist

    aletheist Member+

    Nov 17, 2010
    Olathe, Kansas, USA
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Here are the updated numbers; corrections are always welcome.
    Code:
    EASTERN CONFERENCE
    Rank Team  Pts   GR   MP   MN   TN   SS
      1   SKC   55    4   67    3   23   18
      2   CHI   53    5   68    5   24   20
      3   NYR   50    4   62    8   18   23
      4   DCU   50    4   62    8   18   23
      5   HOU   46    4   58   12   14   --
      6   CLB   45    4   57   14   12   --
      7   MON   40    3   49   19    4   --
      8   PHL   30    6   48   29    3   --
      9   NER   29    4   41   --   --   --
     10   TOR   22    4   34   --   --   --
    WESTERN CONFERENCE
    Rank Team  Pts   GR   MP   MN   TN   SS
      1   SJE   60    4   72   **   **    9
      2   LAG   49    4   61   **   **   24
      3   RSL   49    4   61   **   **   24
      4   SEA   48    5   63    1   28   25
      5   VAN   38    4   50   11   15   --
      6   FCD   36    4   48   15   11   --
      7   COL   30    4   42   21    5   --
      8   POR   29    4   41   22    4   --
      9   CHV   28    5   43   23    6   --
    
    Needless to say, the SKC-CHI match this Friday is huge.
     
  24. SoccerMan94043

    SoccerMan94043 Member+

    May 29, 2003
    San Jose
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Is it too much to ask for a tie?
     
  25. ColinMcCarthy

    ColinMcCarthy Member+

    Apr 2, 2010
    San Jose, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    What is San Jose's magic # for the SS? Can someone smarter than me figure it out and post it?
     

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