It's certainly a very tall order now. http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/Union.html 8 wins and 4 ties from our remaining 14 games gives us a 73% chance of making the playoffs. As a fan I'm always optimistic and there's certainly some winnable games coming up including two against NE, but my gut tells me we just don't have the creativity and firepower to get that sort of job done.
I agree with your first sentence, but a tie would all but mathematically eliminate the Union too. We have very little chance of catching any of the top 3 teams in the East at this point. DCU is 3rd in PPG and will reach 50 points even if they only take 14 points from their last 13 games...realistically we aren't going to catch them. Chicago is currently in 5th place and on pace for 54 points (with 2 other non-playoff teams - MTL and CLB - also ahead of us on PPG). The Union probably need at least 50 points to get in the playoff conversation. It's almost impossible to reach that total without winning 8 of the final 14 games (though 7 wins, 1 loss, and 6 draws would also do it). Do you really think a team that has lost more than half the games it's played in the league this season is going to finish with 8 wins in their last 13 games? Or, to put it more simply, you can't allow a team you're 12 points behind in the standings to get a road draw at this point in the season. Win, or it will be time to start a 2013 SuperDraft thread.
We need to keep in mind that the standings are going to potentially change a LOT in the next 3 months due to the unbalanced schedule. Lots of in conference matches will lead to a lot of 6 pointers........... We need to finish this month strong, and win all three home matches. A draw against DC would be nice as well. That would give us 10 more points. Having 33 pts heading into the Sept/Oct stretch run would give our boys a fighting chance. That said making the playoffs will be a very tall order. It's not impossible, but it will take at minimum an unbeaten run at home the rest of the season (I figure we need to get 5 wins and two draws at home = 17 pts) and we need to go about 2-3-2 on the road the rest of the way for 8 pts. That would give us 48 pts, and seeing as all but one of our remaining matches is a 6 pointer......... we just might be able to make up enough ground to eek into the playoffs, or at minimum be in the running going into the last week of the season.
I call booshizz: Bakary Soumare said "it doesn't matter" that his Union debut might come against his former club, Chicago.— Christopher A. Vito (@ChrisVito) August 8, 2012
Did the union ever make an official announcement that valdes would not be available for this match? If he is not going to be there it seems important to let fans know that an allstar will not be there and heres why.
I hope you turn out to be right but your post seems a little optimistic about our playoff chances at 48 points. The following records would get the teams currently ahead of us in the East to 50 points (W-L-T): PPG 3. DCU (3-5-5): 1.08 4. New York (3-5-3): 1.09 5. Chicago (4-5-3): 1.25 ____________ 6. Columbus (6-4-4): 1.57 7. Montreal (6-1-2): 2.22 It's not like the teams in playoff position need to play particularly well to beat 48 points. When you look at how well Montreal needs to play to get there and then realize that they're actually ahead of the Union on PPG, it tells you just how many points we'll need going forward to make the end of the season relevant. Obviously we have more games to play with than the Impact but an 8-3-3 record (which gets us to 50 points) would mean the Union was playing at about the level of the Supporters' Shield-winning LA Galaxy last year for the final 40+% of the season. It would be a hell of a run though.
That ship left awhile ago, right after Noah's Ark took off. Our lack of strikers and Sean Johnson's recent beasting? I think headers are the best chance...maybe a certain tall guy who hasn't played but is tall and we paid good money for and is tall!
You do realize that all of the teams above us have to play one another, and most play one another twice over the last third of the season? The top 3 teams are unreachable, but that 5th spot is still within reach. Montreal, is probably out of the playoffs, and I think we'll finish with more points then them. We do have 5 games in hand on. I never said it was going to be easy or even likely, I just said that it is possible.
Hmm, try reading the post again. Finishing ahead of Montreal won't get us in the playoffs. Yes, the teams in the East all play each other but unless every game ends in a draw, someone will probably be going home with 3 points often enough to make things difficult for the Union. Of course it is possible. I never said otherwise.
Hoppenot has a facial fracture from the headbutt, but he should be able to play on Sunday. http://www.mlssoccer.com/news/article/2012/08/09/rivas-headbutt-leaves-hoppenot-facial-fracture That doesn't excuse what McInerney did, but, seeing as it was definitely more serious than it looked, I like the fact that Jack tried to do something about it.
I do think retaliation should be punished but what bothers me is Chivas did the same thing to us after the Garfan/Nowak incident and they got away.
Glad Soumare is going to be in the lineup, but I really hope people don't seriously think one player is going to change everything about our aerial presence. It'll help, but I feel like that's something that needs to be fixed from a coaching standpoint.
Agreed. While height would be nice, a lion's share of our set piece failures have been more related to poor marking than anything else.
I think you and STV are probably both right and I'd be surprised if one player fixed everything. On the other hand, while Soumare effectively eliminating the biggest aerial threat on the other team would be great for the Union, he can also presumably push everybody down one spot. Basically, you'd see Williams/Pajoy/whomever end up marking the 3rd/4th/5th biggest threats for the other team and hopefully we'd win a lot more of those battles.