Another great day for Portugal--three games, one win, two draws, but most importantly, Porto, Benfica, and Braga all advance through to the quarterfinals. Brief summary: Porto 2-1 CSKA Moskva PSG 1-1 Benfica Liverpool 0-0 Braga This nets us only .8 UEFA points for the three results, but also .6 thanks to the three bonus points for advancing to the quarterfinals of the tournament. Hence we're now at 14.4 points overall. This more or less locks up fourth place, since we're ahead of Italy in fifth at 11.571 points (and they have only one team left, so no real shot at catching up). But of more interest, there's a plausible shot at catching up with a couple of the countries still ahead of us--Spain and Germany, at 2d and 3d place respectively, have about 14.8 points, and that's not very far ahead of us. Germany in particular has only one team left--Schalke--and if they lose in the CL quarters as they well might, then we could catch them if we keep our run alive. On the other hand, teams are not seeded in the quarters, and sides from the same national association are permitted to face each other, so a lot will depend on the draw. The best outcome would be for all three teams to get separated in the draw, and then win; though if two teams did get drawn against one another, that would guarantee points in the quarters, a team in the next round, and bonus points for reaching the semis. FWIW, I calculate the chances of two Portuguese teams facing each other in a randomly drawn quarterfinal to be about 50%. Here's how: 1. Start with a Portuguese team and randomly select an opponent. Chances of a Portuguese opponent: 2/7. 2. Next round: assume another Portuguese team and that the previous chosen team wasn't Portuguese. Chances of a portuguese opponent: 1/5. 3. 2/7 + 1/5 = about 50% (.485). Is this right? I am no stats person, so I'd put the probability that this is flawed at like 70%.