PtI: In somewhat positive news..next time someone sprouts the crap line "that no-one in Australia cares about Soccer anyway, well it's not a record, but season 2010-2011 just ticked over a half million paying customers on this last weekend with Perth Glory's home crowd of 8,870 taking total aggregate attendance for season#6 to 500,881 It might just be perception, but the end of AFL/NRL season** has seen no more parlous low crowds but a lot more of the 8,000 range, which funnily enough is the current crowd average of season6: 8,636 It is still much higher than the NSL ever achieved. AND unlike the NSL, there exists realistic historical evidence pointing to real scope for improvement. Call me an optimist, but with Summer looking like its finally arrived weather-wise, there's no reason that 8,636 cant climb higher to the 9k mark and hopefully beyond. **Or it could be tha GCU hasn't played at home very often recently(oops) PtII For shiggles, I removed Gold Coast United's home games from the equation to see what would happen if we followed MLS's lead in contracting the deadwood club(s): GCU-less 2010-2011= aggregate:481,403 average:9,258 Of course removing GCU would also take away a home game for every other club, but My brain is tired and I can't be bothered trawling through thedata to give the stats the 'Khmer Rouge' treatment. PtIII: Undoubtedly more Australians are watching top level club football than ever before... the problem comes from PERCEPTION. It looks bad when highlights are shown and there are empty stands in the background. Inevitably, football highlights are grouped together in sport-round-up shows, and no matter how good the goals are, empty stands is a bad look when compare to the EPL which is usually shown immediately before or after the HAL highlights. It gives credence to the sokkah haters rant of: "no-one cares about Soccer in Australia" which is what prompted me to highlight the simple fact that half a million fans already have cared enough to get out to a HAL game in a season only 1/3 complete. This year(s6) there will be 165 games not including finals. At present rate that will bring 1,424,940 through the gates. It's not hard to imagine getting closer to the 1.5 million mark for regular season aggregate..all that is needed is a crowd average of slightly above 9k. denouement: I don't believe its a long bow to draw that football is more popular in Australia right now than its ever been[and yet every time there's a football story in a news-limited 'news'paper I guarantee in the online comments you'll find that some half-wit will write "who cares?". When you include Socceroos home internationals, Australia were the 4th largest buyer of World cup tickets in South Africa this year(behind USA, England and ??) that just hammers home the point that We as a country obviously DO care and more so than ever before IMHO.
A good week from an average attendance standpoint with this week's average increasing the total average a few ticks. Three of the four games were above the league average and only the Heart were below. Good times. Code: % Complete: 35.15 [B]Season Average Change Median Change %<7k %>16k [/B] 2005/06 11818.1 - 11015.0 - 16.67% 20.00% 2006/07 11598.3 -1.9% 8612.0 -21.8% 23.33% 23.33% 2007/08 13524.6 16.6% 12344.5 43.3% 6.67% 23.33% 2008/09 11715.2 -13.4% 11024.5 -10.7% 13.33% 20.00% 2009/10 10667.4 -8.9% 9445.0 -14.3% 25.00% 14.58% 2010/11 8467.8 -20.6% 7463.5 -21.0% 41.38% 6.90% [B]Season Avg Rank Med Rank <7k Rank <16k Rank Overall [/B] 2005/06 2 3 3 3 2.75 2006/07 4 5 4 1 3.5 2007/08 1 1 1 1 1 2008/09 3 2 2 3 2.5 2009/10 5 4 5 5 4.75 2010/11 6 6 6 6 6 Code: [B]Round Comparisons Round 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 Grand Total [/B] 1 17551.5 15741.3 14553.5 13331.3 13631.2 10809.6 14112.1 2 11181.0 14583.8 16993.5 9669.8 12130.0 9045.0 12138.0 3 7920.5 5897.0 10134.5 13584.5 9153.2 10511.6 9556.5 4 11651.3 15024.0 14828.0 12869.5 8674.2 6623.6 11306.9 5 12031.0 8832.3 12290.5 9502.0 8360.6 6570.8 9433.8 6 8366.0 12658.3 15130.8 11280.5 12007.8 10017.5 11477.3 7 12087.3 9927.8 12442.0 12001.3 10083.6 4800.8 9816.9 8 10516.0 14909.5 10077.0 9817.8 6198.4 8745.2 9805.3 9 12175.0 14259.5 15352.0 14735.8 12529.0 10465.0 13117.7 10 10400.3 9823.8 18307.5 12294.3 12238.0 7358.7 11431.3 11 9299.3 12579.5 11149.3 10145.0 6890.8 8867.8 9704.7 12 10142.8 15235.3 16371.0 11395.5 9745.8 12443.2 13 13203.5 9639.8 10708.8 7521.8 7250.0 9549.8 14 7276.3 14960.3 15611.0 8232.5 9632.2 11070.5 15 10859.8 10527.8 14520.5 13956.5 8048.0 11414.2 16 9751.0 20002.5 14414.8 9901.3 10034.2 12688.0 17 11745.5 11681.3 13883.8 15626.8 7981.4 11983.6 18 10145.5 11643.3 17111.5 17378.8 6169.8 12188.8 19 9601.8 11941.3 13884.3 11006.3 11359.0 11549.0 20 9522.8 15545.5 21171.3 14505.0 10686.8 14114.9 21 14627.0 16259.0 17580.5 17043.5 9870.2 14828.1 22 7096.8 7096.8 23 11990.4 11990.4 24 10591.0 10591.0 25 9487.2 9487.2 26 10874.6 10874.6 27 12637.0 12637.0 Grand Total 10955.0 12936.8 14596.0 12180.9 9827.8 8467.8 11482.1
Yup. Round 7 was brutal. As noted, if you point at the bottom of the list of team attendance pretty much everyone had a game. The only exception was Central Coast. Code: Home Attendance Gold Coast 2091 Gold Coast 2037 Melbourne Heart 5698 Brisbane 7080 North Queensland 4922 Newcastle 6977
The problem is, while the Socceroos are popular in Australia, for whatever reason that popularity doesn't translate over to the A-League. I'm sure a lot of that has to do with the limited number of A-league players that play on the Socceroos (only 2 in the WC team), but even then that doesn't really account for the disparity completely.
Football is a tribal game. the reason most people follow the game week-to-week is that they have a club team they identify passionately. Expecting fans to go in the other direction is counter-intuitive from the POV of the rest of the world. There was a great article in the SMH regarding this last weekend:
The problem is, nowadays the team a person follows is not always their local team. I'm not sure how things are in Australia, but every Saturday and Sunday I can watch multiple EPL and Serie A games, an A-league game, and sometimes an Argentina Primera Division game on TV. Add in the internet and if I wanted to follow an EPL team, I could do it almost as easily as I could follow a local team. The connection described in the article is something that takes generations to develop in most cases. If you look at MLS's attendance averages, only the Rapids are pulled in more people this year than they did in 1996 and the league average is about 800 less than the 1996 average, but most of that is due to the expansion teams. If you look at the seven teams that are above the league average, NY and LA are the only original teams on the list and Chivas USA is the only expansion team not above the league average. The problem with A-League is that it has already tapped its big soccer markets, so there isn't a Seattle or Toronto out there for them to tap to create a bit more buzz about the league. Expansion so far has meant hitting smaller areas, or tapping a big market for the second time.
Yoshou, it is definitely similar down here,the Euro-snob is alive and well in Australia Local sports segments on tele will regularly show a round up of the weekends soccer action, melding EPL and A-League action into one 3 minute grab. I'm pretty sure we get more EPL games live here than even the English do. "Viewers choice" is their friend!. The game is immensely popular at many levels, from being the most participated sport in the country to people getting up at strange hours to watch your Arsechester Uniteds on the couch or donning the green & Gold to watch the world cup in public squares. No other sport has that effect. The trick is converting that 'general interest' into support for a local team. The problem with Euro-snobs is they've made up their mind that the HAL is crap(which it is always going to be if you compare it to a big Euro league like EPL/LaLiga or Serie A etc) I go because I love the thrill of standing on the terraces with some like-minded peeps cheering & singing as the team that represents my city takes on a pack of bar-stewards from somewhere else...there is nothing like live football IMHO. I'm a fanatic though so I find it hard to figure out the mindset of the euro-snob. If the A-League can continue to improve its playing standard(every year so far has been a step forward) and the League can survive for lets say 25 years...that's one generation of fans that will grow up with it, that's how the other codes built their lifelong support(that and they ARE the best leagues of their sport in the world) I just worry sometimes that FFA have yet to find the business model that will ensure the 11 clubs we have now will not only survive, but will thrive going forwards into potentially a 16 team league that is one of the best in Asia(Japan's J-League is where we should be aiming IMO) You are lucky that the size of your country and its GDP allows MLS to aim even bigger (to be one of the world's top leagues) we are the size of California, our aims have to be a bit more modest.
J-League has advantages that I doubt A-League can take advantage of. If memory serves me correctly most of their teams are owned by corporations that are able to absorb the crushing debt that they inflict upon themselves to have their quality. Japanese also tend to be rather Japan centric, so they don't have the Eurosnob issue that pervades Australia and the US. It'll be interesting to see how A-league does in the next few years. With the dropping attendance and increasing payrolls it's going to be harder and harder for teams to remain solvent without owners that have some very deep pockets. Having billionaire owners is the main thing that saved MLS during our dark years. I'm not overly familiar with the owners of A-league teams, but based on what I've seen from the Newcastle and Gold Coast troubles this year it doesn't sound like the owners have very deep pockets and don't have realistic expectations about how much money they are going to be losing for the foreseeable future.
Where does this sudden immense drop come from? I spent the last year in Australia (and was able to watch a few games) and I can remember that 1-2 years ago when I first researched on the league, attendances for the Victory were around 26.000, Sydney FC 16.000 and the rest somewhere in between 8.000 and 15.000 (depending on performance, opposing team, etc.). Why is Melbourne suddenly at 16.000 (can´t be just the Hearts, can it?) and the rest in terrible ranges? What do you guys think will happen to the struggling teams (especially GC United, averaging 2-3k per game) and will that effect the expansion plans (Sydney Rovers. Was there more certain?)?
Since no one else has responded, if you factor out the Heart's derby game against the Victory, the averages for the Victory plus the Heart is only about a thousand over what the Victory were averaging last year. I think that makes it safe to say that a large part of why the Victory's numbers have dropped off is due to the Heart. I'm sure their poor performance has hurt them some. As for why the league as a whole is dropping off, I think you can blame the perceived lack of quality and the newness factor wearing off. If you look at MLS and J-League's attendance histories, you'd see a spike in their initial year as people came out to see the new leagues, but then in following years interest dropped off as people decided, for whatever reason, that it wasn't their cup of tea, so they stopped coming to games. A-League is a bit unique as its best year was technically it's third year in existence, but some of that may have been a residual effect from how A-league was formed and fans taking a few years to peel their allegiance from the NSL team and move to an A-League team. Since then, A-League has steadily improved in quality, but there hasn't been any flash in the pan signings of Marquee Players like you got in MLS with Beckham, Blanco, Henry, etc. to keep the Euro-centric fans interested in the game, so they started to drop off to watch the "better quality" play of EPL games on their TV instead of going to A-league games. Expansion seems to already be hurt by the problems that Gold Coast United and North Queensland are having in getting crowds, couple that with the specter of impending collapse of A-League and there seems to be problems getting sponsors for new expansion teams. Granted, the problems with the Rovers may have a lot to do with how they basically came out of nowhere and weren't really ready for prime time, but it sounds like A-League is having problems getting sponsors to offset the increasing salary of players.
Sorry about missing last week. Work blew up on me, so I didn't have time to get the data into the spreadsheets and formatted correctly. Week 11's numbers still aren't complete due to the need to reschedule the Newcastle/North Queensland game, and Week 13 still has two more games to be completed, but the week 13 games will be included next week along with the weekend Week 14 games. The Newcastle game will be updated whenever they play that game. This week was not a bad week thanks in part to well attended games for the Roar and Victory. Code: % Complete: 42.42% [B]Season Average Change Median Change %<7k %>16k[/B] 2005/06 11497.7 - 11015.0 - 19.44% 16.67% 2006/07 12425.9 8.1% 10235.5 -7.1% 19.44% 27.78% 2007/08 13533.5 8.9% 12278.5 20.0% 5.56% 22.22% 2008/09 11865.8 -12.3% 10613.0 -13.6% 13.89% 19.44% 2009/10 10295.7 -13.2% 8897.0 -16.2% 29.82% 14.04% 2010/11 8543.9 -17.0% 7463.5 -16.1% 41.43% 7.14% [B]Season Avg Rank Med Rank <7k Rank <16k Rank Overall[/B] 2005/06 4 2 3 4 3.25 2006/07 2 4 3 1 2.5 2007/08 1 1 1 2 1.25 2008/09 3 3 2 3 2.75 2009/10 5 5 5 5 5 2010/11 6 6 6 6 6 Code: [B]Round 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 Grand Total [/B] 1 17551.5 15741.3 14553.5 13331.3 13631.2 10809.6 14112.1 2 11181.0 14583.8 16993.5 9669.8 12130.0 9045.0 12138.0 3 7920.5 5897.0 10134.5 13584.5 9153.2 10511.6 9556.5 4 11651.3 15024.0 14828.0 12869.5 8674.2 6623.6 11306.9 5 12031.0 8832.3 12290.5 9502.0 8360.6 6570.8 9433.8 6 8366.0 12658.3 15130.8 11280.5 12007.8 10017.5 11477.3 7 12087.3 9927.8 12442.0 12001.3 10083.6 4800.8 9816.9 8 10516.0 14909.5 10077.0 9817.8 6198.4 8745.2 9805.3 9 12175.0 14259.5 15352.0 14735.8 12529.0 10465.0 13117.7 10 10400.3 9823.8 18307.5 12294.3 12238.0 7358.7 11431.3 11 9299.3 12579.5 11149.3 10145.0 6890.8 8867.8 9704.7 12 10142.8 15235.3 16371.0 11395.5 9745.8 8477.7 11451.8 13 13203.5 9639.8 10708.8 7521.8 7250.0 9519.0 9543.8 14 7276.3 14960.3 15611.0 8232.5 9632.2 11070.5 15 10859.8 10527.8 14520.5 13956.5 8048.0 11414.2 16 9751.0 20002.5 14414.8 9901.3 10034.2 12688.0 17 11745.5 11681.3 13883.8 15626.8 7981.4 11983.6 18 10145.5 11643.3 17111.5 17378.8 6169.8 12188.8 19 9601.8 11941.3 13884.3 11006.3 11359.0 11549.0 20 9522.8 15545.5 21171.3 14505.0 10686.8 14114.9 21 14627.0 16259.0 17580.5 17043.5 9870.2 14828.1 22 7096.8 7096.8 23 11990.4 11990.4 24 10591.0 10591.0 25 9487.2 9487.2 26 10874.6 10874.6 27 12637.0 12637.0 Grand Total 10955.0 12936.8 14596.0 12180.9 9827.8 8543.9 11425.1
Games at Gold Coast and North Queensland means this week is the second worst of the season so far. Plus side, Newcastle brought in their third highest attendance of the season and there is a midweek game for the Victory this week, so the number should go up some, the only question is by how much. If Newcastle isn't able to pull in a decent number in their midweek game, the increase could be practically non-existent. Code: % complete: 46.67 [B]Season Average Change Median Change %<7k %>16k [/B] 2005/06 11445.8 - 11020.0 - 20.51% 17.95% 2006/07 12161.8 6.3% 10493.0 -4.8% 20.51% 25.64% 2007/08 14069.2 15.7% 12458.0 18.7% 5.13% 28.21% 2008/09 12028.7 -14.5% 10710.0 -14.0% 12.82% 20.51% 2009/10 9901.2 -17.7% 8057.0 -24.8% 33.33% 12.70% 2010/11 8322.1 -15.9% 7339.0 -8.9% 42.86% 6.49% [B]Season Avg Rank Med Rank <7k Rank <16k Rank Overall [/B]2005/06 4 2 3 4 3.25 2006/07 2 4 3 2 2.75 2007/08 1 1 1 1 1 2008/09 3 3 2 3 2.75 2009/10 5 5 5 5 5 2010/11 6 6 6 6 6 Code: [B]Round 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 Grand Total[/B] 1 17551.5 15741.3 14553.5 13331.3 13631.2 10809.6 14112.1 2 11181.0 14583.8 16993.5 9669.8 12130.0 9045.0 12138.0 3 7920.5 5897.0 10134.5 13584.5 9153.2 10511.6 9556.5 4 11651.3 15024.0 14828.0 12869.5 8674.2 6623.6 11306.9 5 12031.0 8832.3 12290.5 9502.0 8360.6 6570.8 9433.8 6 8366.0 12658.3 15130.8 11280.5 12007.8 10017.5 11477.3 7 12087.3 9927.8 12442.0 12001.3 10083.6 4800.8 9816.9 8 10516.0 14909.5 10077.0 9817.8 6198.4 8745.2 9805.3 9 12175.0 14259.5 15352.0 14735.8 12529.0 10465.0 13117.7 10 10400.3 9823.8 18307.5 12294.3 12238.0 7358.7 11431.3 11 9299.3 12579.5 11149.3 10145.0 6890.8 8867.8 9704.7 12 10142.8 15235.3 16371.0 11395.5 9745.8 8477.7 11451.8 13 13203.5 9639.8 10708.8 7521.8 7250.0 8640.6 9322.5 14 7276.3 14960.3 15611.0 8232.5 9632.2 5968.6 10089.4 15 10859.8 10527.8 14520.5 13956.5 8048.0 11414.2 16 9751.0 20002.5 14414.8 9901.3 10034.2 12688.0 17 11745.5 11681.3 13883.8 15626.8 7981.4 11983.6 18 10145.5 11643.3 17111.5 17378.8 6169.8 12188.8 19 9601.8 11941.3 13884.3 11006.3 11359.0 11549.0 20 9522.8 15545.5 21171.3 14505.0 10686.8 14114.9 21 14627.0 16259.0 17580.5 17043.5 9870.2 14828.1 22 7096.8 7096.8 23 11990.4 11990.4 24 10591.0 10591.0 25 9487.2 9487.2 26 10874.6 10874.6 27 12637.0 12637.0 Grand Total 10955.0 12936.8 14596.0 12180.9 9827.8 8322.1 11357.2
Another round of fun with numbers. Newcastle's new owners seem to be doing something right as they had the highest attendance this week. They've also had above average attendance every game since the team's sale. On the downside, Sydney had their poorest attendance of the season. All in all, an above average attendance this week for the league, so despite Sydney's poor attendance, things went well. Code: % Complete: 50.91% [B]Season Average Change Median Change %<7k %>16k[/B] 2005/06 11205.8 - 11010.0 - 20.93% 16.28% 2006/07 12424.9 10.9% 10895.0 -1.0% 18.60% 25.58% 2007/08 13806.5 11.1% 12326.0 13.1% 4.65% 25.58% 2008/09 11838.6 -14.3% 10710.0 -13.1% 11.63% 18.60% 2009/10 9949.2 -16.0% 8456.0 -21.0% 33.33% 13.04% 2010/11 8375.0 -15.8% 7463.5 -11.7% 41.67% 5.95% [B]Season Avg Rank Med Rank <7k Rank <16k Rank Overall[/B] 2005/06 4 2 4 4 3.5 2006/07 2 3 3 1 2.25 2007/08 1 1 1 1 1 2008/09 3 4 2 3 3 2009/10 5 5 5 5 5 2010/11 6 6 6 6 6 Code: [B]Round 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 Grand Total [/B] 1 17551.5 15741.3 14553.5 13331.3 13631.2 10809.6 14112.1 2 11181.0 14583.8 16993.5 9669.8 12130.0 9045.0 12138.0 3 7920.5 5897.0 10134.5 13584.5 9153.2 10511.6 9556.5 4 11651.3 15024.0 14828.0 12869.5 8674.2 6623.6 11306.9 5 12031.0 8832.3 12290.5 9502.0 8360.6 6570.8 9433.8 6 8366.0 12658.3 15130.8 11280.5 12007.8 10017.5 11477.3 7 12087.3 9927.8 12442.0 12001.3 10083.6 4800.8 9816.9 8 10516.0 14909.5 10077.0 9817.8 6198.4 8745.2 9805.3 9 12175.0 14259.5 15352.0 14735.8 12529.0 10465.0 13117.7 10 10400.3 9823.8 18307.5 12294.3 12238.0 7358.7 11431.3 11 9299.3 12579.5 11149.3 10145.0 6890.8 8867.8 9704.7 12 10142.8 15235.3 16371.0 11395.5 9745.8 8477.7 11451.8 13 13203.5 9639.8 10708.8 7521.8 7250.0 8640.6 9322.5 14 7276.3 14960.3 15611.0 8232.5 9632.2 6763.7 9993.8 15 10859.8 10527.8 14520.5 13956.5 8048.0 9039.4 10957.5 16 9751.0 20002.5 14414.8 9901.3 10034.2 12688.0 17 11745.5 11681.3 13883.8 15626.8 7981.4 11983.6 18 10145.5 11643.3 17111.5 17378.8 6169.8 12188.8 19 9601.8 11941.3 13884.3 11006.3 11359.0 11549.0 20 9522.8 15545.5 21171.3 14505.0 10686.8 14114.9 21 14627.0 16259.0 17580.5 17043.5 9870.2 14828.1 22 7096.8 7096.8 23 11990.4 11990.4 24 10591.0 10591.0 25 9487.2 9487.2 26 10874.6 10874.6 27 12637.0 12637.0 Grand Total 10955.0 12936.8 14596.0 12180.9 9827.8 8375.0 11326.9
And since we are at the halfway point of the season, here's the club stats: Code: [B] 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 Home Average Change Average Change Average Change Average Change Average Change Average Change Grand Total[/B] Adelaide 10,947 - 12,162 11.1% 12,697 4.4% 11,712 -7.8% 10,765 -8.1% 9,963 -7.4% 11,444 Brisbane 14,785 - 16,465 11.4% 16,949 2.9% 12,995 -23.3% 8,652 -33.4% 8,793 1.6% 12,984 Central Coast 7,899 - 9,828 24.4% 12,738 29.6% 10,465 -17.8% 7,426 -29.0% 7,623 2.7% 9,375 Gold Coast - - - - - - - - 5,382 - 3,145 -41.6% 4,636 Melbourne Heart - - - - - - - - - - 9,031 - 9,031 Melbourne Victory 14,158 - 27,728 95.9% 26,064 -6.0% 24,516 -5.9% 21,105 -13.9% 14,371 -31.9% 21,677 New Zealand 3,909 - 3,092 -20.9% - - - - - - - - 3,481 Newcastle 8,912 - 11,442 28.4% 13,086 14.4% 9,729 -25.6% 6,340 -34.8% 7,420 17.0% 9,452 North Queensland - - - - - - - - 6,723 - 4,847 -27.9% 6,066 Perth 9,734 - 7,671 -21.2% 7,606 -0.8% 7,942 4.4% 9,209 16.0% 9,623 4.5% 8,644 Sydney FC 16,669 - 14,999 -10.0% 16,382 9.2% 12,380 -24.4% 12,987 4.9% 8,861 -31.8% 13,829 Wellington - - - - 11,683 - 7,193 -38.4% 8,940 24.3% 7,140 -20.1% 8,833 Grand Total 10,955 - 12,937 18.1% 14,596 12.8% 12,181 -16.5% 9,828 -19.3% 8,375 -14.8% 11,327
I have a feeling that a lot of it comes from last year's "failure" of a season. They had absolutely awful crowd figures in the Champions League group stages (Adelaide had even better crowds and that's after finishing at the bottom of the table). Their start to the league has been pretty slow, as well, so I don't think that's really convinced many people to keep going to games. If you add the crowd figures between Heart and Victory, while they're near to the old Victory figures, I think the recent derby throws the number off balance. I think you'd probably find their combined attendances don't really make up for Victory's crowd loss.
Depends what point you consider as the Victory's crowd figures. If you consider the Victory's average attendance last year against this year's + the Heart's average (minus the derby game), then the crowd figures are almost exact. If you consider the numbers they were pulling from 2006 to 2008 as the Victory's crowd figures, then you're right, the Heart's average (minus the derby game) don't get you back to that number.
But, like I said, Heart's average takes the derby match into account and a lot of those were Victory supporters/people who came along just to see the spectacle and not really support anyone. Throws the balance out somewhat.
Which is why I put in the (minus the derby game). If you factor out the 25k from derby game from the Hearts' average you get about 6,600. That plus the 14,700 for the Victory's average gives you 21,300 which is just a few hundred over the Victory's 2009/10 average, but a few thousand less than the 25k-ish the Victory were pulling in from 2006/07-2008/09.
I don't like the fiddling around with this. You don't get the AFL for example removing the event games from their crowd averages. How many turn up to the MCG on Anzac day for the event and just hoping to see a good game without supporting either Essendon or Collingwood. If people paid to attend the game then the number should stand. Victory will get a home derby too, swings and round a bouts. That would be like saying, if we discount the Adelaide Oval game from United end of season average, because it is an event game held at a ground with a much higher capacity than Hindmarsh. we could see the end of season average(unlikely though it is) be larger than the capacity of the official Home ground(16,500)
When trying to understand the impact that the Heart are having on the Victory's attendance, I think there is some value in discounting the derby game for now. First, a number of the people attending the Heart game are going to be current Victory fans so if you're trying to say that X number of Heart fans were once Victory fans, it's hard to argue that the large number of Victory fans that attended the Heart's end of the derby should be included in that number. Second, the Victory haven't hosted their end of the derby yet and once they have held their game, the two numbers should "cancel" each other out. Third, and this one doesn't have anything to do with the comparison between the Heart and Victory, but the Heart's end of the derby was the 5th home game of the season for the Heart, so the impact of the game on their season average was quite disproportionate - their average jumped from 6,656 to 10,505. As the Heart have more games at their "true" average, the impact of the derby match will be reduced and in the end, the game will just be another match in their 15 match season average.
Last round's averages took a tumble once the last two games at poor performers Wellington and Central Coast were taken into account with the round average dropping about 1,100. This round is already starting off towards the low end with Adelaide being the only team to get above the league average and midweek games in Sydney and Gold Coast virtually guaranteed to be below the league average will likely lower the round average as well. Code: % Complete: 55.15% [B]Season Average Change Median Change %<7k %>16k [/B] 2005/06 11069.3 - 10868.0 - 21.28% 14.89% 2006/07 12422.6 12.2% 10895.0 0.2% 19.15% 25.53% 2007/08 13972.6 12.5% 12231.0 12.3% 4.26% 25.53% 2008/09 11851.2 -15.2% 10516.0 -14.0% 10.64% 19.15% 2009/10 9771.5 -17.5% 8456.0 -19.6% 33.33% 12.00% 2010/11 8240.5 -15.7% 7339.0 -13.2% 43.96% 5.49% [B]Season Avg Rank Med Rank <7k Rank <16k Rank Overall[/B] 2005/06 4 3 4 4 3.75 2006/07 2 2 3 1 2 2007/08 1 1 1 1 1 2008/09 3 4 2 3 3 2009/10 5 5 5 5 5 2010/11 6 6 6 6 6 Code: [B]Round 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 Grand Total [/B] 1 17551.5 15741.3 14553.5 13331.3 13631.2 10809.6 14112.1 2 11181.0 14583.8 16993.5 9669.8 12130.0 9045.0 12138.0 3 7920.5 5897.0 10134.5 13584.5 9153.2 10511.6 9556.5 4 11651.3 15024.0 14828.0 12869.5 8674.2 6623.6 11306.9 5 12031.0 8832.3 12290.5 9502.0 8360.6 6570.8 9433.8 6 8366.0 12658.3 15130.8 11280.5 12007.8 10017.5 11477.3 7 12087.3 9927.8 12442.0 12001.3 10083.6 4800.8 9816.9 8 10516.0 14909.5 10077.0 9817.8 6198.4 8745.2 9805.3 9 12175.0 14259.5 15352.0 14735.8 12529.0 10465.0 13117.7 10 10400.3 9823.8 18307.5 12294.3 12238.0 7358.7 11431.3 11 9299.3 12579.5 11149.3 10145.0 6890.8 8867.8 9704.7 12 10142.8 15235.3 16371.0 11395.5 9745.8 8477.7 11451.8 13 13203.5 9639.8 10708.8 7521.8 7250.0 8640.6 9322.5 14 7276.3 14960.3 15611.0 8232.5 9632.2 6763.7 9993.8 15 10859.8 10527.8 14520.5 13956.5 8048.0 7965.0 10551.9 16 9751.0 20002.5 14414.8 9901.3 10034.2 7165.8 11626.1 17 11745.5 11681.3 13883.8 15626.8 7981.4 11983.6 18 10145.5 11643.3 17111.5 17378.8 6169.8 12188.8 19 9601.8 11941.3 13884.3 11006.3 11359.0 11549.0 20 9522.8 15545.5 21171.3 14505.0 10686.8 14114.9 21 14627.0 16259.0 17580.5 17043.5 9870.2 14828.1 22 7096.8 7096.8 23 11990.4 11990.4 24 10591.0 10591.0 25 9487.2 9487.2 26 10874.6 10874.6 27 12637.0 12637.0 Grand Total 10955.0 12936.8 14596.0 12180.9 9827.8 8240.5 11268.4
