19,000 Average for the season....

Discussion in 'MLS: General' started by firefan2001, Mar 11, 2014.

  1. fuzzx

    fuzzx Member+

    Feb 4, 2012
    Brossard
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Here's my speculative table, updated with this weekend's results.

    The Blue numbers are 2013 Averages, except the Bold values which I modified.

    I pushed Chivas down a bit this time, If that ends up being justified, we are now 61145 short of our target.

    PlayedSpeculationFinal
    AverageTotalAveragetotalAverageTotal
    Chicago00017147212502571714721250257
    Chivas USA275021500415650097500176618112504
    Colorado00017150872564791715087256479
    Columbus00017157832683111715783268311
    DC United1138401384016134902158401713511229680
    FC Dallas1180111801116157732523681715905270379
    Houston2202834056615200013000151720034340581
    Los Angeles1256342563416226203619201722797387554
    Montréal00017208233539911720823353991
    New England00017136332317611713633231761
    Philadelphia1186511865116177532840481717806302699
    Portland2207444148815208003120001720793353488
    Real Salt Lake1205422054216186932990881718802319630
    Red Bull NY00017190513238671719051323867
    San Jose1105251052516155162482641715223258789
    Seattle2388417768215455006825001744717760182
    Sporting KC1194311943116197923166721719771336103
    Toronto FC00017218003706001721800370600
    Vancouver1210002100016205003280001720529349000
    Overall1620148322374307187415753481323188116075855
     
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  2. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    In Chicago on Saint Patrick’s day almost everyone is Irish-American. Some even down to the drunken fighting.
     
  3. The Devil's Architect

    Feb 10, 2000
    The American Steppe
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That's pretty much everywhere in St. Patrick's day.
     
  4. Mattbro

    Mattbro Member+

    Sep 21, 2001
    Anyone who refers to today's holiday as "Paddy's Day."
     
  5. The Devil's Architect

    Feb 10, 2000
    The American Steppe
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    So, Festival of the Micks is a no go as well?
     
  6. Mattbro

    Mattbro Member+

    Sep 21, 2001
    Anything is less annoying than Paddy's Day.
     
  7. thnkucomeagain

    thnkucomeagain Member+

    Jul 13, 2012
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Most annoying goes to Pattys day, because there is no such thing as Pattys day only St. Patricks or St. Paddys
     
    Mattbro repped this.
  8. FuzzyForeigner

    Oct 29, 2003
    WA
    Club:
    Seattle
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  9. G Enriquez

    G Enriquez Member+

    Apr 1, 2002
    Tampa
    Club:
    FC Tampa Bay Rowdies
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  10. ManuSooner

    ManuSooner Member+

    Nov 15, 2007
    Oklahoma City
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well, the league has started well in the first two weeks, even WITH Chivas dragging them down like a biblical millstone around the neck.
    The first two weeks showed an increase in attendance over both of the same weeks last year.
     
  11. GHjelm

    GHjelm Member+

    Apr 23, 2008
    Batavia
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Robbie Keane plays in LA. I'm sure his family supports him. That's probably about the biggest Irish-specific following I've heard of.
     
  12. firefan2001

    firefan2001 Member+

    Dec 27, 2000
    Oswego, Illinois
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Magee.......:)
     
  13. firefan2001

    firefan2001 Member+

    Dec 27, 2000
    Oswego, Illinois
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    We need to get to 6,137,000 to average 19,000 this year, last year we came 126,513 short.

    Week #1.....169,039 (6,137,000-169,039=5,967,961/315 =18,946 average to get to 19,000 average).
    Week #2.....153,333 (5,967,961-153,333=5,814,628/307=18,940 average to get to 19,000 average).
    Week #3.....167,179 (5,814,628-167,179=5,647,449/298=18,951 average to get to 19,000 average).
     
  14. fuzzx

    fuzzx Member+

    Feb 4, 2012
    Brossard
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    #39 fuzzx, Mar 24, 2014
    Last edited: Mar 24, 2014
    Here's my speculative table, updated with this weekend's results.

    The Blue numbers are 2013 Averages, except the Bold values which I modified.

    After pushing Chivas down last week, this week I pushed Toronto up with the assumption that they'll repeat Saturday's numbers for the rest of the season. Also the new Terrace in Portland upps their numbers just a bit.

    In addition, im assuming SJ gets 40,000 at their 2 big games, and that Seattle averages 60,000 in their 5 full stadium game. Huge room for error there.

    Anyways, if that's accurate we'll end up 43,881 short. That amount will have to be made up by the other teams who'll play above their 2013 average:

    PlayedSpeculationFinal
    AverageTotalAveragetotalAverageTotal
    Chicago1162281622816147212355361714810251764
    Chivas USA275021500415650097500176618112504
    Colorado1151351513516150872413921715090256527
    Columbus1175171751716157832525281715885270045
    DC United1138401384016134902158401713511229680
    FC Dallas2167883357515157732365951715892270170
    Houston2202834056515200013000151720034340580
    Los Angeles1256342563416226203619201722797387554
    Montréal1272072720716208233331681721199360375
    New England1131031310316136332181281713602231231
    Philadelphia1186511865116177532840481717806302699
    Portland2207444148815208143122101720806353698
    Real Salt Lake1204662046616186932990881718797319554
    Red Bull NY1205422054216190513048161719139325358
    San Jose1105251052516155162482641715223258789
    Seattle2388417768115451766776401744431755321
    Sporting KC2194003879915197922968801719746335679
    Toronto FC1225912259116225003600001722505382591
    Vancouver1210002100016205003280001720529349000
    Overall2519582489551298188045603568323188646093119
     
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  15. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator
    Staff Member

    Mar 6, 2006
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Good stuff as always.
     
  16. fuzzx

    fuzzx Member+

    Feb 4, 2012
    Brossard
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Yeah, I figured I'd keep the speculation off the attendance thread. This is the perfect place for it.

    Btw I have some sweet capacity tables that are just dying for a week 3 thread to be posted to :)
     
  17. BBBulldog

    BBBulldog Moderator
    Staff Member

    Jun 25, 2004
    Dinamo Zagreb
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    Hello, we are DC United and we will do anything we can to ******** up your little plan :D
     
    Mattbro repped this.
  18. firefan2001

    firefan2001 Member+

    Dec 27, 2000
    Oswego, Illinois
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    We need to get to 6,137,000 to average 19,000 this year, last year we came 126,513 short.

    Week #1.....169,179 (6,137,000-169,179=5,967,821/315 =18,945 average to get to 19,000 average).
    Week #2.....153,333 (5,967,821-153,333=5,814,488/307=18,940 average to get to 19,000 average).
    Week #3.....167,179 (5,814,488-167,179=5,647,309/298=18,951 average to get to 19,000 average).
     
  19. fuzzx

    fuzzx Member+

    Feb 4, 2012
    Brossard
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Just a little sidenote.

    I was thinking about what 19,000 means. In the end it's just a fun arbitrary number, since most people who i've seen reference our attendance round up 18.8k to 19k regardless.

    So I wondered what the next actual important value really is.

    The answer is the attendance of France's league 1 and the Dutch Eredivisie.

    their average shifts around quite a bit, but a 5 year average of their attendance puts them at 19761 and 19455 respectively.

    Not gonna happen this year, But with Capacity unconstrained teams like NYCFC at Yankee stadium, and OCSC at Orange bowl, plus Toronto expanding to 25,000, SJ to 18000 and Chivas getting sold, we might be in for quite a boost.

    That's not including Seattle and Vancouver upping their capacities.
     
  20. MLSFan123

    MLSFan123 Member+

    Mar 21, 2011
    Boston Area
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Citrus Bowl
     
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  21. fuzzx

    fuzzx Member+

    Feb 4, 2012
    Brossard
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Close enough ;)
     
  22. MLSFan123

    MLSFan123 Member+

    Mar 21, 2011
    Boston Area
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Right family of fruit :)
     
  23. Zxcv

    Zxcv Member+

    Feb 22, 2012
    Toronto expansion is to 30,000 if I'm not mistaken. Argonauts capacity at BMO will be 25,000.

    San Jose is one of the biggest things to happen to MLS attendance potential. Not only should they regularly sell out the stadium, but their future games at Stanford/Levi's could push them above 20,000.

    I think we all kind of want to break that 20,000 barrier, because its a nice round number, but for the most part its entirely irrelevant and will make little difference to the perception of anything. The biggest thing that changes perceptions from a visual perspective is full stadiums. So even if you're playing in an 10,000 seat stadium, and its full every week, it will improve the image of the league in a way that 20,000 in a 25,000 seater doesn't. That sounds ridiculous, but its true. I much prefer watching games from Buck Shaw rather than Columbus or Chicago.

    To me that's a major part of the appeal of the Premier League, because most games have the appearance of being sold out. It's also the reason why I ignore Sunderland home games. I know I'm watching soccer, rather than the stands, but its really jarring.
     
  24. fuzzx

    fuzzx Member+

    Feb 4, 2012
    Brossard
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    No, Toronto's expansion is a 2 year process.

    By spring 2015, they will only finish the 2nd deck.

    It won't be until spring 2016 that they build the larger end seating and the roof.

    Now that I think about it, they'll probably leave the existing end seating in, so I assume they'll reach 27k-28k. But it won't be 30k for sure.
     
  25. fuzzx

    fuzzx Member+

    Feb 4, 2012
    Brossard
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    So I took my table and modified it for next year.

    I assumed:
    - MLS USA LA2 gets a bump from being a real team: 10,000
    -San Jose averages 17,500 plus pulls in 40k for a game at Levis(capacity:70,000 btw): 18,350
    -Seattle inches up higher with fuller big games or a higher base capacity: 45,500
    -Toronto does it's thing: 25,500
    -A slight bump for Vancouver: 21,000
    -NYCFC and OCSC both average 25k in their oversized facilities.

    That's 340 games with a total attendance of 6,687,528 and average of 19,669.

    And this is with all the other teams being the same(and NYRB not regressing)

    In the next few years I expect Vancouver, Kansas City and Philadelphia to increase their capacity,

    SKC should expand to 26,000 or 28,000 which, if they sellout, will single handedly get us to just under 20,000(19,980)

    PlayedSpeculationFinal
    AverageTotalAveragetotalAverageTotal
    Chicago017147212502571714721250257
    Chivas USA017100001700001710000170000
    Colorado017150872564791715087256479
    Columbus017157832683111715783268311
    DC United017134902293301713490229330
    FC Dallas017157732681411715773268141
    Houston017200013400171720001340017
    Los Angeles017226203845401722620384540
    Montréal017208233539911720823353991
    New England017136332317611713633231761
    Philadelphia017177533018011717753301801
    Portland017208143538381720814353838
    Real Salt Lake017186933177811718693317781
    Red Bull NY017190513238671719051323867
    San Jose017183503119501718350311950
    Seattle017455007735001745500773500
    Sporting KC017197923364641719792336464
    Toronto FC017255004335001725500433500
    Vancouver017210003570001721000357000
    NYCFC017250004250001725000425000
    OCSC017250004250001725000425000
    Overall0#DIV/0!0340196696687528340196696687528
     

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