We need to get to 6,137,000 to average 19,000 this year, last year we came 126,513 short. Week #1.....169,039 (6,137,000-169,039=5,967,961/315 =18,946 average to get to 19,000 average.
YISS. Thanks for starting this up, It's always a trend I like to keep an eye on, and if last year's trends hold up, we might have a shot!
OK, so I brought back my spreadsheet from last year. I set this up as a tool to be able to quickly and easily punch in future predictions for attendance and see what effect it has. I'll link it if anyone wants. In this version below, I used the 2013 end of season averages for all teams. Then I made some (IMO) reasonable adjustments: -I changed Vancouver up to 20500(2013 average was 19882) -Changed Toronto to a sellout crowd 21800 - Upped Seattle from 43000 to 45500 as a result of the extra full stadium game -Upped SJ from 13000 to 15500 for the same reason The result shows a end of season average of 18925 with a total attendance of 6,112,739 That leaves us 24,225 short. Thus, if the below capacity teams perform slightly above average. We can reach our target. Heck, a string of sellouts bt LA or NY could singlehandedly put us over....or it could just as easily go the other way. Full leagueCurrentRemainingFinalAverageTotalAveragetotalAverageTotalChicago00017147212502571714721250257Chivas USA183208320168230131680178235140000Colorado00017150872564791715087256479Columbus00017157832683111715783268311DC United1138401384016134902158401713511229680FC Dallas1180111801116157732523681715905270379Houston1223202232016200013200161720137342336Los Angeles1256342563416226203619201722797387554Montréal00017208233539911720823353991New England00017136332317611713633231761Philadelphia00017177533018011717753301801Portland1206742067416206743307841720674351458Real Salt Lake00017186933177811718693317781Red Bull NY00017190513238671719051323867San Jose00017155162637801715516263780Seattle1392403924016455007280001745132767240Sporting KC00017197923364641719792336464Toronto FC00017218003706001721800370600Vancouver1210002100016205003280001720529349000Overall821130169039315188695943700323189256112739
Not going to happen this year also (126,497, I made it to one game last year ), unless Dollar Menu sells the team or show that he cares about it.
Oh, also! DC has a double header at Fedex field in June. It should be a "free" 50k game, and so if everyone else averages the same as it did last year, except the ones I noted above, we should break 19,000 right there. Should be worth following.
Not sure it this has been noted but there will be 5 open stadium MLS games in Seattle this year. They are sold in a 6 pack which includes a friendly.
Good point. I Donno if everyone else knows. I built it into my calculations in the previous posts. And am assuming the 4 other full stadium games get a higher average than last year as well. Getting those games above a 60k average is essential if 19000 is to be a reality, barring across the board jumps from a bunch of other teams.
Seattle has 5 full stadium games this year, they had 4 last year (242,387 for a 60,597average), that could be a 20,000-25,000. San Jose has 2 games this year Stanford and Levi's stadiums, they had 1 last year (50,028), they 2 this year (50,000+40,000-50,000=90,000-100,000), that could be + 29,000-39,000 extra. DC United has a doubleheader game with Spain/El Salvador 40,000-50,000, that could be 27,000-37,000+ extra. Toronto is going to sellout every game (21,800 x 17 =370,000 vs. last year 308,000) that could be 62,000 extra. That's 138,000-163,000, so as long as the other teams match 2013 figures we should get above 19,000+
Bit of a weird question but what mls club would have a large or decent irish following? I usually see a flag at seattle games and it caught my interest? Bit out of nowhere but any replies is greatly appreciated!
You did the calculations differently, but our conclusions agree. Keep an eye on Houston and Vancouver. If they can maintain a near sellout situation from the start, as opposed to part way through the season, it will really help.
KC was sold out. SJ looked close to sold out. Phili was close to sold out. Seattle was close to sold out if not (didn't see that one). On the low end were NY (What's up with them? There were a lot of empty blue seats for the Red Bulls match) and Houston (looked like it had patches of orange seats too). I am pretty new to all of this but I can't imagine that NYCFC will help attendance for the Red Bulls.
San Jose 10,525 (10,525 capacity), Kansas City 19,431 (18,467 capacity), Philadelphia 18,651 (18,500 capacity) and Seattle 38,441 (capacity 38,300). Portland game tomorrow will be a sellout also 20,674 (20,674 capacity) New York 20,542 (25,189 capacity) and Houston 18,245 (22,039 capacity). The only downer will be CD Chivas who will get a crowd of 8,099-10,000.
Are you saying that NY sold 20, 542 tickets? If so there were a lot of no shows especially in the upper deck. Glad to hear it but where were they hiding? Houston looked a little lighter than 18245 but my view was only what I saw online.
Hey Acts, good to have some new blood here. The way the attendance numbers work, both here and in the weekly attendance thread in the news section, is the number of tickets "sold or distributed" This number is season tickets, plus single game sales, plus freebies given out to the community. There are a lot of problems with this, since all 3 types of tickets can have people simply not show up. Especially freely distributed ones. Unfortunately, we have absolutely no indication of the turnstile number which reflects actual butts in seats. So we take the numbers as is and move forward. This is standard practice in all professional leagues North American leagues if not worldwide, so I personally am not too bothered by it, but even if you are not much we can do about it. Overall the numbers were average, which these days means really good. It'll be very interesting to see how NYCFC changes things next year, one hypothesis is that NYRB did a bad job reaching out to NY soccer fans. If so, the audience NYCFC gets should be new, and the red Bulls should be mostly unaffected. For example we do know that the majority of NYRB fans are from NJ. But as far as this thread goes, we'll leave that till next year.
Ok fuzzx. Sounds reasonable and fair. Glad to hear so many were sold distributed for the Red Bulls. Your method is very sound. Let's shoot for 19k then. And I see that Houston had hard rains so the 18+ k is reasonable too.
If you enjoy discussing attendance in general, a much better place for it is the weekly attendance threads in MLS: News and Analysis. Here's week 1: https://www.bigsoccer.com/community/threads/mls-attendance-analysis-2014-week-1.2001710/ A lot of good analysis and detailed discussion, though pure speculation is not very welcome there, which is why I come here for that
Not sure there is a marked "Irish" group supporting any team.. Of course there are cities like New York or Boston with a huge number of Irish descendants but apart from Boston Celtics in NBA no teams that brand themselves in an Irish way I think. Notre Dame got a big pro-Irish fanbase though.
We need to get to 6,137,000 to average 19,000 this year, last year we came 126,513 short. Week #1.....169,039 (6,137,000-169,039=5,967,961/315 =18,946 average to get to 19,000 average). Week #2.....153,333 (5,967,961-153,333=5,814,628/307=18,940 average to get to 19,000 average).