€-Moneyball; High and Low Finance Football

Discussion in 'The Netherlands' started by Orange14, Feb 27, 2012.

  1. DRB300

    DRB300 Member+

    Sep 21, 2007
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    I think the Sneijder/VDV/Robben/RVP generation is still active then. Depending on team politics, that tournament will be a hit or miss. I think 2014 will be like Euro 2004 where we put a line under a past generation. Nicely 10 years later where the generation of now took over and will have to be given the handshake for their services. The circle of life.

    Isn't it much better to measure on Euro 2016?

    Also the way to measure itself, is a bit indelicate, no? In 2002 we missed qualification. What if we get in a hard group again?

    How about players being able to create market value for themselves internationally?

    [​IMG]

    How about player ratings in big competitions? Being able to solidify themselves as a deciding player at a big club? This last point really brought us to the final of WC 2010. Sneijder winning it for Inter and Robben bringing Bayern to the final on his back. I hear people saying RVP, but he is not with a top club winning trophy's and you always have to account for the group of players not capable to replcicate club form into NT form.

    I mean NT performance does not necessarily mean that kids are not longer educated in such a way that it enables them to compete with the top in the world. In an NT it can go wrong for other reasons. If we would do a "Poland" or something, we would see that very fast on club level I guess.
     
  2. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    What do you mean with the last paragraph?
     
  3. DRB300

    DRB300 Member+

    Sep 21, 2007
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    NT football does not consist out of that many games that it sorts out the luck factor to small proportions. I mean a quarter final in 2014 can go wrong quite easily, while having great material. Argentina has not passed the quarter final since 1990 and we can't say they had bad material in the mean time. Bad group cohesion can also lead to fast exits. Or a few stars that are not able to replicate club form into NT form, yet are pushed into the starting 11 by the media. This last Euro we saw the pseudo experts at VI Oranje pushing for RVP behind Huntelaar or on the wing. Both players had to play according to them and people in general, but it does not work. It simply does not work. However journalists and the masses are only human and quickly star struck with the material and go for names, not the optimal team.

    The multiple NT processes on the one hand and the limited number of games in the other make it a fickle business often. We are out here to see if the next generation can walk into the footsteps of generation Cruyff, generation van Basten, generation Ajax 1995, generation Sneijder/VDV/RVP/Robben aka magnificent 4. I think to measure that, it's best to see if the new generation can fulfill vacancies at top clubs in Europe and then push for the highest silverware with that club being a big factor in it all.

    An interesting case is Strootman vs Martinez. Quite similar players, however here we see how Spain is pushing. While Spain's first string is occupying the spots at Barca and Madrid, the guys behind those, Martinez being one of them, are pushing for the top spots at United (who also have De Gea), City (who have also Silva), Chelsea (who also have Mata) and Bayern. If those clubs look for a profile like Strootman but prefer Martinez, while Strootman is our first string, than we can quickly see how much ground we have lost and how much there is to gain.

    If top clubs start to reject Dutch talents or go for others, it's hard to believe Dutch NT will go any places and maintain it's high level of performance. Also big players at big clubs means a lot of market value, so quite a good tool also. For example if Dutch NT all of the sudden turns into a top 20 or 30 side in this respect, instead of "top 10" it is now, I would start to worry. I used Poland as an example that came to me as a country that once had a great NT side, but pretty much sucks the last decades.
     
  4. Orange14

    Orange14 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 27, 2007
    Bethesda, MD
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    ^good post. I would only add that the current generation came to the NT at very early ages and by the 2006 WC were starters for the most part. Sneijder was the oldest of the four when he moved abroad to a bigger club (though we Ajax fans always believe it is the biggest club). Looking at the younger prospects, this hasn't happened primarily because the NT roster since 2006 has changed relatively little. There is usually a two year period where the NT transitions to a new set of players and I think we will see this in 2014, the same way it happened in 2004. Personally I think there are some very good young Dutch footballers. Whether they are good enough to make it big internationally remains to be seen.
     
  5. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    Not only were they starters at an early age, also was Ajax much better between 2002 and 2005 as it is now.
     
  6. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord

    Poland has above all a side with average players, but only average players are not good enough. See also the youth squads of Holland of 2006 and 2007, who won their age group. Something tells me that things are not going well. We produce today many decent players but not those world beaters any more. Players like Buttner and Willems are not good enough. And many who have know-how like Van Gaal and Seedorf also said that the youth system is outdated. It is outdated precisely because it relies at substandard amateur academies, while Spain has fully professionalised their system and supports their amateur clubs.

    The difference with Spain and Germany is that they have top squads at every youth level. Under-17, under-19 and under-21. Holland hasn't.

    But that cannot be demanded either. A bigger problem is that no one of the 'succesful' youth squads since 2005 has broken through, except Huntelaar. If you compare this with Germany 2009, ironically Holland was as defending champion absent in that tournament, then you see that many of that team have made it in the senior team and at top club teams.

    Finally, I cannot stress enough how important it is that everyone should be reached. I do not propose a quota system or whatever, I just want to make people aware that we are now foremostly utilizing 20% of our population. Compare this with other countries or other eras like the 1990s and the problem is clear.
    If those migrants are the best, yes, they should play, but I do not believe in such a skewed talent distribution TBH.
     
  7. Orange14

    Orange14 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 27, 2007
    Bethesda, MD
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    ^but you also have to remember that some clubs youth systems bring in players from outside the country as they want to bring the best players into the club first team. This can work against giving some Dutch youth a chance at first team football. Look at the Belgiums and Danes that Ajax have trained and who are or have played first team football at the club. Ajax need to look after their club football above all.
     
  8. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    It is a food chain. Talented kids from Holland go (too early) to England and talented boys from those nations go at an early age towards Holland because the facilities in their nation are worse.
     
  9. johan neeskens

    Jan 14, 2004
    Totally irrelevant. Our best generations have never won anything at the youth level. And none of the players who won the under 21 Euros twice not too long ago has ever amounted to anything.

    The secret to Dutch football has long been that youngsters were allowed to have fun at a young age, the focus lying on improving their technique rather than their physique, and making them better as footballers far more important than getting results.
     
  10. johan neeskens

    Jan 14, 2004
    That is not a fair (or realistic) comment. Dutch clubs would love to hold on to their homegrown talent but the reality is, if a Dutch 19-year old is showing real class, he's gone to a higher paying league. What can Twente do when the likes of Fulham bid millions for Chris David, a kid who's never even played first team football in the eredivisie? Don't you think we'd rather see 100% Tukker Ola John on the left wing than Tadic, no matter how good the latter is? The truth is no Dutch club is even allowed to pay under 18s full pro wages, and no Dutch club can afford to match the wages paid to 19 year olds in other countries. And if they would start doing that, they'd be on the road to bankruptcy real quick.

    The problem isn't that the Dutch aren't committed to the development of homegrown youth, the problem is that the real quality youngsters are poached before they're established players in the Dutch league. And the bigger, underlying problem is that with the exception of the Bundesliga, all top leagues are a complete and utter financial disgrace.
     
  11. Orange14

    Orange14 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 27, 2007
    Bethesda, MD
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    +1 on this statement. But even Bayern poach players from other Bundesliga teams though Dortmund have managed to keep most of their players with the exception of Kagawa this year (as well as picking up Reuss). The top 10 teams in Europe have their pick of almost any player they want and they don't care about age or whether the player even makes it. If it's a washout, they just move onto the next one. Sadly, financial fair play is likely not to do much to resolve this.
     
  12. johan neeskens

    Jan 14, 2004
    I can accept that bigger clubs attract talent from smaller clubs, it's the natural order of things. IF, that is, they're bigger clubs based on merit, and not just because they're getting away with chronically being half a billion in debt or are managed in some dodgy ownership construction targeted only at getting some clever rich bloke's debt refinanced.

    Under 21s need to be protected by UEFA. And I say that in the knowledge that Twente itself has numerous foreign kids in its football academy. It all creates a completely unfair playing field which no other industry in the EU would even get away with legally.
     
  13. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    Correct, and that is why they until recently rarely qualified for youth tournaments. Precisely because of the lacking physique at their age groups.

    But now they do and even start to win prizes...
     
  14. DRB300

    DRB300 Member+

    Sep 21, 2007
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    Hence the use of the word "suck".

    Could be, but U21 teams are loaded often with players, "te groot voor het servet, te klein voor het tafellaken." I would not pay any attention to those. U17 is more important IMo

    Should not be named in the same sentence. Willems can become a great player. The guy just turned 18. What he has pulled off is already crazy. Also on club level.

    I don't necessarily disagree with you, but I just think measuring downfall from a quarter final 2014 place is not sensitive enough. I would go for other ways. That was my point. Spain and Germany are off the grid for us, but there is still talent coming through that could become outlier. The way you write off Willems, goes way to quick for me. If there is a path for a player becoming top 5 in his position, Willems is on schedule for now. He was already much better the time he came back after Pieters was injured again. then in a few weeks he had to make the jump to face the best NT's in the world (Portugal and Germany (where against Denmark he was best with Sneijder) where he looked out of depth again as in his first spell at PSV. He never had any time to settle. To quick to conclude from what we saw he is no world beater.


    o_O Are you sure you react on something I have said, or something you think I said? :thumbsup:

    I talked about Strootman vs Martinez and top clubs choosing between the two. Obviously I talk about the top teams being United, Chelsea, City etc.[/quote][/quote]
     
  15. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    I´m happy with Van Gaal as NT coach. He is also the right man to change things.
     
  16. We in the Netherlands have a ridiculous number of amateur clubs pro 10 000 people with quality grounds, so we donot need something like the German support bases.

    I donot think you are trying to be or are racist with those comments. Just giving an analysis of the situation.

    When you look at how the Feyenoord Academy is operating I cannot see what is wrong with that. I even think it is of world class, as are all other academies in this country.
     
  17. Orange14

    Orange14 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 27, 2007
    Bethesda, MD
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    Ajax youth teams were involved in a number of competitions with other Euro youth teams (and even went to an Asian tourney recently) and have done exceedingly well. The big difference between Germany and Spain is population differential and nothing else.
     
  18. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    The problem is that Ajax is very stupid to let other club teams look in their academy. Like Bayern Munich, who looked at the Ajax academy and picked the best elements. Although I've heard that also Adidas had a role in this.
     
  19. Orange14

    Orange14 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 27, 2007
    Bethesda, MD
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    ^and how are they going to stop this? Dutch coaches are or have been in all the major leagues in Europe and have implemented systems from the youth up to the first team. Your statement is rather foolish in light of what Cruijff did in Barcelona and that was a lot of years ago now.
     
  20. he so scrumptiouz

    Jun 1, 2006
    amsterdam
    Not entirely true.
     
  21. he so scrumptiouz

    Jun 1, 2006
    amsterdam
    Ajax are making money off it (https://www.ajaxonlineacademy.com/) while other clubs do it for free. Ajax and Bayern have always been exchanging knowledge however, Cruyff has been a big fan of their management structure and we're trying to implement it in Amsterdam with their help.
     
  22. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    IMO a big mistake, which does not take into account the cultural differences. Holland need flat organizations, to begin with. See publications like Trompenaars for more info.
     
  23. Orange14

    Orange14 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 27, 2007
    Bethesda, MD
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    ^can you really be more specific about the flaws in the Ajax academy? Last season there were a number of matches where most of the starting players came from the ranks of the academy; probably more than any other Eredivisie club. I only worry about Dutch teams since that's what the benchmark should be. This club will never have the financial resources of the top 20 teams in Europe or for that matter most EPL teams whose television revenue alone is more than the Ajax yearly budget. From my perspective the club is doing just fine in the area of player development and the new training staff is retooling things in line with Cruijff's vision of what an academy should look like.
     
  24. johan neeskens

    Jan 14, 2004
    The way Ajax has been raiding the youth academies of other Dutch clubs this summer I'm not likely going to feel sorry for them.
     

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