€-Moneyball; High and Low Finance Football

Discussion in 'The Netherlands' started by Orange14, Feb 27, 2012.

  1. BTV802

    BTV802 BigSoccer Supporter

    AFC Ajax
    Jul 11, 2006
    Vermont
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
  2. onzie77

    onzie77 Member

    Ajax
    Netherlands
    May 18, 2012
    miami
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    What's up guys? So I got some questions for you guys?

    What options are there for the Dutch league to gain revenue?

    Should teams be able to sell individual tv rights or should the Dutch league have revenue sharing in terms of foreign markets?

    If Ajax is the 10th highest branded team shouldn't they be able to profit by selling their game rights to any tv network on the planet?

    What laws are there in the Dutch fa rule book? Especially in terms of player development , tv rights?
     
  3. Orange14

    Orange14 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 27, 2007
    Bethesda, MD
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    Slim and none. There is little demand for television rights to the games and that's really the only way that revenue can be increased.

    The answer is pretty similar to the one above and if they are permitted to sell individual rights it will further weaken the league in the same way that the Spanish league is now having problems (none of the teams are profitable other than Barca and Madrid and they all have to sell players.

    Take away the CL football money of the past 2 1/2 years and Ajax quickly drops way down. Besides they are not the 10th highest team by revenue but just outside the top 20 IIRC. Who is going to pay for an Ajax match other than the Feyenoord and PSV matches? In the US only ESPN3 (Internet) and GolTV carry Eredevisie matches and GolTV added the league this season after they lost La Liga games to BeIn sports. A lot of cable carriers are now dropping GolTV as their ratings are now in the toilet.

    Once the Bundesliga wises up and starts to market their league better it will get even worse though maybe everyone is quickly tiring of boring Serie A matches. Really the only league that makes huge money is the EPL.
     
  4. onzie77

    onzie77 Member

    Ajax
    Netherlands
    May 18, 2012
    miami
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    Thanks, I'm still trying to figure out the legal aspect of it all because I was looking at "reported" balance sheets of some public teams and my accountant friend says the club's we did see are "cooking" the books. (Researching because making a football owner, manager app game) and as a Dutch fan in the end national team is more important than club, so on this blogsite I was depressed at the Dutch teams predicament in Europe.

    I don't know how they can raise revenues to compete. Especially with those debt laden teams. I'm thinking if at least Ajax could sell those individual tv.contract money would increase. But besides becoming a European powerhouse again it is a catch 22 can't compete because of money and bosman ruling, only way to compete is with money therefore no European glory.

    Until something in the future changes that dynamic no champions league trophy.in Holland
     
  5. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
  6. Orange14

    Orange14 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 27, 2007
    Bethesda, MD
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    Best source of unbiased financial information about football teams comes from The Swiss Ramble. Though he mostly focuses on EPL teams he does expand his horizons and has done analyses of both Ajax and PSV in the past several years. I don't know about PSV, but Ajax have adopted a policy that no player will be paid more than €1M per year. Once they hit that cap you can be pretty sure that they will be sold to a larger club. They also are supporting a large youth system which is not a trivial expense.
     
  7. Antario2

    Antario2 Member

    Jan 29, 2012
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    I think the current 10 year league deal with Fox prevents teams from signing individual TV contracts.

    Short of joining a stronger/richer league, find a billionaire owner or form a multinational European league there are no prospects for Dutch teams to become competitive again in Europe under the current conditions. The Eredivisie is already struggling to retain average players in their prime.
     
  8. Orange14

    Orange14 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 27, 2007
    Bethesda, MD
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    This will be quite difficult to do as well. Rich owners fall into three categories: Russian cronies of Putin, oil-rich sheiks from the middle east, and wealth USA businessmen. I don't know of any USA businessman who owns a team outside of the English Premier League and even there the record is quite spotty. Liverpool imploded while Hicks and Gillette owned the club and they had to sell at a big loss; Lerner has not done well at Aston Villa. The oil barons from the middle east are in England and PSG in France but I don't know of any other clubs (maybe Malaga in Spain???). Abramovich owns Chelsea and I think there may be one or two more (Does Vitesse have some Russian money??). Do you really think anyone from one of these three groups will swoop in to buy Heerenveen or Groningen? Ajax are a public stock company and I'm not sure about whether the incorporation rules will allow this (and this is really the major branded team in The Netherlands).

    There was talk some years ago about forming a new league that would consist of major clubs from "minor" Euro countries. It would include clubs such as Ajax, Anderlecht, Rangers, Celtic, Porto, Benfica, and some others that were too big for their own country league. I think UEFA prevented this from happening as they wanted to preserve the sanctity of the country football associations (they wouldn't allow the representatives from such a league to play CL football).

    We really don't know what the impact of Platini's financial fair play rules will have but I'm pessimistic that there will be much of an impact. We are already seeing the implosion of Italian football; many of the teams now have to sell players and other than Juventus most of the arenas/stadiums are in terrible shape. They lost a fourth CL sport to Germany last year and I don't think they will recover that anytime soon. French football other than PSG is also not in good shape. I've been amazed that Portuguese teams have done well given the disastrous financial shape of the country (though maybe that is changing as their teams are not doing well in CL this season).

    My bottom line is to enjoy the Eredivisie; it's wild and wacky and always seems to go down to the final match day. On any given Sunday/Saturday any team can win. You can't say this about most other leagues in Europe. Regarding CL glory (or for that matter Europa League); it's not going to happen in our lifetime.
     
    Antario2 repped this.
  9. Antario2

    Antario2 Member

    Jan 29, 2012
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    A Russian billionaire, Alexander Tsjigirinski, now owns Vitesse. He made his fortune in real estate and construction not oil. Has ties with Abramovich of Chelsea but that's about all that is known about him. Some Asian and European business tycoons are also busy buying clubs in continental Europe.

    A hostile take over at Ajax is impossible due to the controlling stake of the association Ajax which protects the clubs identity. The members would have to vote in favor of changing the regulations for any type of takeover. Personally I hope this will never happen.

    Yes, the lure of easy access to CL money divides and conquers.

    In time I could see the premier league or the Bundesliga open up to foreign top teams. The Bundesliga could expand to 20 sides and the EPL is currently pretty much Manchester, Liverpool, London and some bland local teams that leach off the TV money.

    The way I understand FFP is that it only limits debt spending. Which is a problem for the 'projects' and poor teams, it doesn't affect teams with massive TV and/or commercial revenue like Bayern, Real, United, Arsenal and Barcelona. It's goal isn't to create a level playing field but to prevent clubs from risky spending. The top teams are breaking away from the rest of the field. It becomes increasingly tough for anyone to challenge sides from the top leagues in the CL as the best players are stock piled at an increasingly smaller number of clubs. I don't see any way for FFP to halt that development.

    Agreed, although never say never. The world can change very quickly and football might be unrecognizable 10 years from now.
     
  10. Lupin III

    Lupin III Member+

    Mar 17, 2011
    Denmark
    Club:
    Brøndby IF
    Nat'l Team:
    Denmark
    Qustion, does Ajax fans reject the idea that a external can takeover the club to protect the club identity? My Club Brondby (who just bought Bouhlarouz btw.) Was for many years a leading club in denmark with a very strong club culture compared to other clubs in denmark. The club president had the same oppinion to protect the club, but that almost sended the club to the brink of economic collapse, and at same times the supportergroups all petitioned for a possibilities so externals could by up the club. Said in other words the fans themselves wanted to be bought out so the club could gain strenght. Is that scenario impossible for an Ajax fan?
     
  11. Orange14

    Orange14 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 27, 2007
    Bethesda, MD
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    There is just no way to generate any more money. The club is in strong financial shape and supports an extensive youth program. They will contend for the Dutch league title every year and that's all we can hope for. A fifth European title is not going to happen
     
    aveslacker repped this.
  12. Antario2

    Antario2 Member

    Jan 29, 2012
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    The association Ajax is not made up of fans. It's an exclusive club of around 600 members made up of former (youth) players and ex-staff members and volunteers to the club. Membership is on invitation only and usually only given to people who have distinguished themselves in service to the club. These people are literally Ajax, it's hard to imagine them selling off the team. They control 73% of shares in the company Ajax.

    Fans are organized in a supporters shareholder association who own less than 10% of shares. Whether they sell their shares or not will not affect the balance of power in the club.

    Like Brondby, the professional department of Ajax suffered from mismanagement in the 2000s. After a legendary embarasing performance against Madrid in September 2010 where the team had abandoned the clubs philosophy of attacking football, Cruijff lead a member revolt against the professional management of the time with the help of the media. His people, mostly former footballers, have now taken over the club and turned both the finances and youth academy around. The fans had off course taken the side of Cruijff who pretty much has demigod status. Cruijff believes Ajax should be run by footballers not businessmen so I don't think a the idea of selling the club to a wealthy owner will have any support from the majority of fans.
     
    Lupin III repped this.
  13. Lupin III

    Lupin III Member+

    Mar 17, 2011
    Denmark
    Club:
    Brøndby IF
    Nat'l Team:
    Denmark
    It would also be too luxurious to hope for a fifth european title, we would be more than happy if we one day were able to reach our level from 1991 an UEFA semifinal (The team were ade up of those who later won the euro in 92).
     
  14. CANADA-AZ

    CANADA-AZ Member

    Feb 3, 2005
    Hamilton-Canada
    AZ made the UEFA semi in 2005--and lost the most heartbreaking game ever--last minute goal thru Perez's legs from a corner in a rain storm in the 123rd minute --so that is still a possible IMO--the date was 5/5/05

    AZ got to the quarters 2 years ago-- Fulham got to the final---so that is do-able

    Going anywhere in the CL is impossible under the present conditions--getting into the elimination round could still be done but Ajax seems to get done in by FIFA every year--either the opposition gets a PK for a dive or some team loses by 6 goals on the final day--- it kind of smells to me--like FIFA has a predetermined the out comes (and Dutch soccer does not pay the right people)
     
  15. Antario2

    Antario2 Member

    Jan 29, 2012
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Shady refereeing in the CL is a given unfortunately. I doubt UEFA are involved, they've rigged the qualifying and group stages enough to make sure teams from richer/bigger leagues have an easy road to the knock out stages.

    There have been some media reports that gambling cartels are actively involved in bribing players and referees national leagues and in European competitions for money laundering purposes. Particularly in matches with a lesser profile.
     
  16. Orange14

    Orange14 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 27, 2007
    Bethesda, MD
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    Nice piece by Simon Kuper on the wasted money that goes into hosting the World Cup!
     
    Blondo repped this.
  17. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    The German taxpayers also had a much lower ROI than 'forecasted' ahead of WC2006 ... they reached the same conclusion, Germans will not recoup what they invested. The Dutch and Belgian taxpayers probably have been bailed out by the Russians ... getting stuck with the bill for a prestige project when the tax bite is already too severe, makes me less eager to host the event. Maybe EURO2020 is on the right scale?

    About our WC2018 bid ... FIFA confirmed that we were the frontrunner, but we lost out because of the bottomline. You can argue that FIFA commited a precontractual fault ... still I can imagine that the criteria were written with an 'ideal' candidate in mind + proving that FIFA violated their duties will be hard. Unless EURO2020 becomes the standard or FIFA changes their 'ideology' ... I assume other countries will be hosting the event ... go China2030 :cautious:

    PS this is the quote from Michel Sablon, technical director at the Belgian FA, in Dutch:

    "Naderhand heeft de FIFA ons bevestigd dat wij de beste bid hadden om het WK2018 binnen te halen. Maar de FIFA heeft een politieke keuze gemaakt en is gegaan voor commerciële en televisierechten. We zijn daar een beetje naïef in geweest. Als we op voorhand hadden geweten dat bij de stemming zoveel nadruk zou worden gelegd op het politieke aspect, dan hadden we ons heel wat tijd, geld en moeite kunnen besparen."

    PPS you can still check out J.Stewart's unique perspective on Qatar2022:

    http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/tue-november-19-2013/unnecessary-muffness
     
  18. Orange14

    Orange14 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 27, 2007
    Bethesda, MD
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    IIRC the only recent Olympic Games to make money was the 1984 Los Angeles games. I think they only had to build a swimming arena and cycling velodrome and used existing facilities for everything else. College dormitories were used to house athletes.
     
  19. aveslacker

    aveslacker Member+

    Ajax
    United States
    Apr 2, 2006
    Old Madras
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Since 1976, most Olympics have shown a net profit for the host country or broken even: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_the_Olympic_Games.

    The most egregious example is Athens (which took place when I lived there - I got to see several events), which lost in the neighborhood of $15 billion.
     
  20. Orange14

    Orange14 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 27, 2007
    Bethesda, MD
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    Well this should be interesting, the European Commission has opened an inquiry about whether clubs in Spain have received preferential treatment from localities to help them resolve financial problems. It may be that the deal between PSV and Eindhoven gets called into question if this one progresses successfully.
     
  21. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    Oh, the humanity of it all ... think of the children ... erm ... fans:



    Not in-depth but well-made.
     
  22. Orange14

    Orange14 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 27, 2007
    Bethesda, MD
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    THIS highlights another huge failure of football. Atheltico Madrid would have to pay Chelsea €3M/match if they want to play him against them in CL semi-finals if the draw goes that way.
     
    PuckVanHeel repped this.
  23. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    The power and financial differences are really too big nowadays. It stiffles competition and creativity. Sadly, it will not change in the near future. Thanks for the link.
     
  24. Orange14

    Orange14 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 27, 2007
    Bethesda, MD
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    ^ No problem. Can anyone think of any intra-Eredivisie loan where the player was prevented from playing against the team he was loaned from? I know that in Ajax's case all the loaned players did play against Ajax unless injured or suspended. In England these non-compete clauses are quite common with player loans. Personally I think it's rotten!
     
    MrOranjeBal repped this.
  25. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    I can only agree and Wenger does too ... Lukaku has helped Chelsea with one of his best performances during the first Meyerside derby of this season (scoring twice in a sensational match) and City still has to go to Everton ... Arsenal could even miss out on the UCL after their recent defeat to Everton. I expect that the rules will change eventually as this clearly is an unfair competitive advantage for rich clubs.
     

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