The latest was Leo Moura, André Santos and Elano will return. It still sucks we have to deal with Muralha. He better play out of his mind...
According to this chart and to an article from Zero Hora newspaper, Grêmio will have the 2nd-best group stage record if it defeats Nacional this Thursday in Porto Alegre (a result I fully expect). However, if Santos Laguna draws at Arsenal, Grêmio loses the #2 ranking unless it defeats Nacional by 3 or more goals. Vélez Sarsfield has effectively guaranteed the best record. They currently have 13 points and if they defeat the weak Peruvian team of Universitario at home tonight, they jump to 16. Thankfully, while Vélez Sarsfield is a strong and experienced team, they have a recent history of morrer na praia, and it is not common for the best group stage team to win it all (Atl.-MG did it last year; it was the first time since CONMEBOL enlarged the tournament to 32 teams in the group stage). And as for possible all-Brazil matchups, we may see: Grêmio vs Botafogo Atl.-MG vs Cruzeiro Atl.-MG vs Flamengo Atl.-MG vs Atl.-PR This wouldn't please me... the more round of 16 all-Brazil matchups, the less likely, at least in theory, that we'll have another Brazilian champion. I would hate to see an all-Belo Horizonte matchup in the round of 16 as both have the potential to win it all (and as I'd love to see what Anelka can do for Galo).
I would love to get revenge on Defensor for 2007. However, I can see them giving us a lot of problems.
Plus, they'd have home field advantage if they face your team in the oitavas-de-final. Still, I would love to see Flamengo eliminate them - and with the exception of Santos Laguna, I am firm in my belief this year's Copa Libertadores will be won by either a Brazilian or an Argentine team.
Atlético Paranaense eliminated. It's too bad given that until very recently they were dubbed Brazil's best performing team, with 3 wins and only 1 loss. It was the home defeat to Vélez Sarsfield that doomed them - Vélez Sarsfield scored an early goal and Atlético Paranaense had several good chances, including a near score when they had just equalized. Winning in the Bolivian altitude was going to be a tall order; drawing was more realistic, and sufficient. Unfortunately, neither happened. With a Cruzeiro victory: - If Flamengo wins and if Atlético Mineiro defeats Zamora by 1 goal, and Newell's Old Boys defeats Atlético Nacional: Atlético Mineiro vs. Cruzeiro; Unión Española vs. Flamengo. - If Flamengo wins and if Atlético Mineiro defeats Zamora by 2 or more goals, and Newell's Old Boys defeats Atlético Nacional: Atlético Mineiro vs. Flamengo; Unión Española vs. Cruzeiro. - If Flamengo wins and if Atlético Mineiro ties Zamora, and if Newell's Old Boys defeats Atlético Nacional: Atlético Mineiro vs. Newell's Old Boys; Bolívar vs. Cruzeiro; Unión Española vs. Flamengo. - If Flamengo wins and if Atlético Mineiro defeats Zamora by 2 or more goals, and if Newell's Old Boys draws or loses to Atlético Nacional: Atlético Mineiro vs. The Strongest; Unión Española vs. Flamengo; Bolívar vs. Cruzeiro. For all 4 scenarios, I'm also assuming a Grêmio victory against Nacional and a Botafogo draw or win at San Lorenzo. We would need scenario #4 plus these two last results to ensure that the 5 remaining Brazilian teams do not face a fellow Brazilian team in the round of 16. Right now, Atlético Mineiro vs. Flamengo seems quite likely. For other same-country match-ups, depending on results, Vélez Sarsfield may face San Lorenzo or Lanús. So, the results I'm hoping will all happen: - Botafogo draws or wins at San Lorenzo - Grêmio beats Nacional - Flamengo beats León - Atlético Mineiro defeats Zamora by 2 or more goals - Cruzeiro defeats Real Garcilaso by 3 or more goals - Newell's Old Boys draws or loses to Atlético Nacional These are the 6 results I'll be watching for. There are others of course which must turn one way or another, but if the stars align, not only will the Brazilian survivors steer clear of each other, but Vélez Sarsfield will face Lanús - and Lanús may well oust Vélez Sarsfield. If this occurs, we'd be getting rid of the best-performing Argentine team.
"Atlético Paranaense eliminated. It's too bad given that until very recently they were dubbed Brazil's best performing team" no, actually, they were only the brazilian team with more points at that point, and anyone could see that happened because from their 3 most difficult matches (the two against Velez and away to Strongest), 2 of them were LAST matches of the group phase and the only one which they had already faced, against Velez, they had lost. I thought it was entirely predictable they could be eliminated considering they were not playing well and the matches they still had ahead.
The dubbing wasn't done by me. Certain segments of Brazilian sports news said that - which I personally found odd because they weren't unbeaten, whereas your team (and Atlético Mineiro) were and are unbeaten. As I wrote, it was their home defeat to Vélez Sarsfield that doomed them. In previous posts, I said I view Grêmio as the best bet for a Brazilian title winner this time around and I stand by what I wrote. I too found it entirely predictable Atlético Paranaense would fall. This is why I predicted a victory by The Strongest in the most sabio forum.
And just like that, Botafogo crashes out. I didn't watch the game, but it's one of those nights when a team with very little Copa tradition like San Lorenzo manages to score a crucial 3rd goal to squeak by on GD when the other match was 4-5 (what a goalfest). Tomorrow, we have the final matches of the group stage. I have Grêmio, Atl.-MG, and Newell's winning their matches - these are what I see as realistic predictions. If we have these 3 teams winning, the fates of Brazilian teams will vary according to the other matches' results. The following results assume a Newell's Old Boys victory over Atlético Nacional, which I consider a probable and realistic result. I'm not figuring out a possible Independiente Santa Fe victory scenario over Nacional-PAR because I don't think that's likely. These results also assume Grêmio beats Nacional-URU by 3 goals or less. A 4-goal differential or greater affects the results. A Nacional-PAR win by 3 goals or less with an Arsenal victory result in: - Grêmio vs. San Lorenzo - León vs. Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro vs. Bolivar A Nacional-PAR win by 3 goals or less with an Arsenal-Santos Laguna OR a Santos Laguna victory draw result in: - Grêmio vs. Lanús - Cerro Porteño vs. Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro vs. Bolivar - Veléz Sarsfield vs. San Lorenzo A Nacional-PAR win by 4 goals or more with an Arsenal victory result in: - Grêmio vs. Lanús - León vs. Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro vs. Bolivar A Nacional-PAR win by 4 goals or more with an Arsenal-Santos Laguna draw result in: - Grêmio vs. Nacional-PAR - Cerro Porteño vs. Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro vs. Bolivar - Veléz Sarsfield vs. San Lorenzo A Nacional-PAR win by 4 goals or more with a Santos Laguna victory result in: - Grêmio vs. Nacional-PAR - Cerro Porteño vs. Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro vs. Bolivar - Veléz Sarsfield vs. Lanús
You are confusing Bolivar with the strongest. Atletico Mineiro cannot play against Bolivar even if they lose and are second in their group.
It's strange that the Zero Hora newspaper simulator and the Globo Esporte simulator produce different pairings with the same results... *shrug*
Then the Zero Hora simulator was bugged. Bolivar and Atletico are first in their groups, they can't face each other.
unbelieavable that Newell's was eliminated, like that, playing at home, to Atletico Nacional. but I can blame it entirely at their goalkeeper.
AcesHigh, what's your take on your team's matchup vs. San Lorenzo? Your team is definitely better but they have a manager who has won this tournament and their confidence is surely elevated now. Your team however has the best defense in the tournament and you guys withstood the pressure when facing Newell's; this will help you when you visit San Lorenzo.
Wouldn't really blame it all on the gk, there was a red card in the first 20 minutes for both two teams which favors the younger team with more fitness/speed to play the whole game with 10. Maxi Rodrigues got hurt early too and Nacional were really good. Mejia and Sherman Cardenas have been phenomenal.
My take is that football is unpredictable, and even if Grêmio played as well as Bayern Munchen, I would still not be certain of anything. We may have problems for the away game. Luan (who broke his hand) may not have returned yet and Alan Ruiz, his immediate replacement, is on loan from San Lorenzo and by the contract, he can´t play against his former club.
even if Atletico Nacional were much better the entire match (I don´t know because I did not see the entire match), still, the goalkeeper was DIRECTLY responsible for the 3 goals.
Bad night for Grêmio and for Atl.-MG. I only saw bits of Grêmio's match and it did seem that the team tried. San Lorenzo isn't that great a team at all, and while it's too bad Grêmio didn't score, a 1-0 result isn't the end of the world. No room for errors in Arena Grêmio next week, though. Luan played and this is good news. I saw nothing of Atl.-MG's match, but it seems Atl.-Nacional pressed Galo the entire match. If Galo doesn't show its championship mettle, its reign will come to an ignoble end.
Maybe it is because the brazilian teams have been disappointing but this years libertadores is missing the "magic". Bolivar was a good story and the group stages were decent at least but I have seen lots of low quality games.