Timothy Chandler at FC Nürnberg [R]

As long as the Bundesliga`s foreign tv rights are bigger and growing faster than MLS´ domestic tv revenues, I just don`t think MLS will ever be in a position to catch up to the Bundesliga. But that doesn`t mean that MLS won`t continue to grow and be a good investment opportunity.

But back to the topic.

 

25-30 years I'd reckon. But would that mean the faulter of MLB or NFL for MLS to rise to such a stature? That's what I wonder.

 

You'd be way off. MLS TV revenue has grown from 10 to approaching 100 million dollars over the course of a decade. The Bundesliga hasn't had 1000% TV revenue growth over the last decade, that's for sure. That rate would obviously need to continue in order for MLS to catch up. Who knows if that's sustainable.

 

The Bundesliga`s income from foreign TV rights has grown from 15 million € to approaching 140 million € over the course of a decade. So it`s not that far off.

 

Really don't know who stays and who goes. Also is going to depend a lot which coach comes in. I don't think Chandler is quite a hot property like Drmic will be (regardless of whether we are relegated or not), but it might be a lower/midlevel team such as Stuttgart makes a run at him again.

But it would have to be for the right price, and Chandler does not seem that keen to leave and if we plan on going back up in one season, we should be able to hold on to a lot of players like Hertha did last season.

 

Looks like we were a bit hasty with the Leipzig stuff. Maybe they won't be Nurnberg's 2 Bundesliga competition after all.

http://www.welt.de/sport/fussball/a...g-darf-nur-mit-neuem-Wappen-in-Liga-zwei.html

RB Leipzig need to change their logo. They also need to alter their structure to comply with 50+1. Finally, they need to lower membership fees. Current fees are 800 euros per season. For the record, Schalke's memberships fees are 50 eruos (just the one I know off the top of my head), so 800 euros is clearly ridiculous.

 

There appears to be a lot of misinformation about MLS TV revenues being spread. Here is a crash course

*Total current domestic is $27 million per year
ESPN for $8 million a year
Univision for $9 million a year
NBC for $10 million a year

*The ESPN and Univision deals go back to 2006. NBC replaced Fox last year.

*The TV deals include money for US Soccer rights. So while we don't know the exact break down, most of us who follow this stuff in depth believe the breakdown is roughly 75% MLS 25% US Soccer

* All domestic TV deals expire this season and are currently in negotiations.

* NBC has officially withdrawn from consideration, leaving likely ESPN and Fox as the two english rights holders while Univision has publicly stated they intend to stick around with the league.

* In January, it was rumored by multiple sources that MLS and US Soccer were close to signing a $70m deal for the English rights. Which if you then add the expected Spanish rights from Univision, would put them in the $90m range. The total years rumored for the deal were anywhere between 8 and 10. The longer the deal, the more money MLS and SUM are expecting per year.

* Recently Don Garber lowered these expectations significantly when he publicly stated at a conference that he expected the new TV deals to grow by 50%, which puts the total deal closer to the $40m a year range for all domestic rights. Remember again, this deal is for both US Soccer and MLS, all the money does not go to MLS.

* This is all we know right now as we await the contract to be finished. Many of us believe the delay is due to Fox wanting to use FS2 to broadcast games, when obviously MLS would prefer FS1.

* So if we do some back of the envelope math for growth, we have this (please note this is all estimations since we don't know the numbers of the new deal).

- Assume new domestic contracts are $65m (middle ground between the rumored 40m and 90m)
- Assume the break down is 75% MLS and 25% US Soccer

That gives an 8 year growth profile from $20.25m to $48.75m per year. Nice but hardly earth shattering, especially if the new deal is in the 8 year range again.

Making ~$20m in 2006 and making ~$49m in 2022 should not make anyone think that MLS is a rocket ship of TV revenues.



========================

As a side note, anyone expecting MLS to catch the NHL in terms of revenue in the next 25 years really needs a new calculator. The NHL did $3.2 billion in revenue in 2011/2012 and is expected to shatter that number this year. The NHL just recently signed a $5.2 billion (yes billion!) TV contract in Canada. There is no way MLS can compete with these numbers in our lifetime.

So while it is certainly true that if MLS ever grew as big as the NHL it would be one of the biggest leagues in the world but not only won't that ever happen in any reasonable time frame, the gap in revenue between the NHL and MLS continues to widen.

 

The NHL deal is 12 years so ~US$400MM per year. Contrast with NFL which is ~$7BB per year in total media rights.

 

I don't really know what to say to this...

 

That NHL deal was only the Canadian rights. The US rights are another $200m a year. That is a combined $633 million a year. That is roughly $600 million more per year than what MLS takes in from US and Canada.

It will take MLS a long long time to get anywhere near that level even if one makes the incorrect assumption that the NHL completely stagnates revenue wise.

Not sure why you brought up the NFL when we are trying to compare NHL to MLS.

 

No worries just want to clarify that the NHL Canada Can$5.2BB deal was in total while the MLS US$90MM speculation was yearly

 

The point I was trying to make was, what the hell does your USA's back line preference have to do with this thread at all? You were discussing something completely unrelated to Yanks Abroad which got me previously suspended from posting here.

 

His mentioning of hoping that Chandler could fit into the US backline at RB certainly seems on point for a Yanks Abroad thread based on Chandler.

 

It's odd you chose to go after his post which is actually about Timmy Chandler rather than the majority of the posts in the last two pages which have nothing to do with him but are about RB Leipzig and NHL/MLS/Bundesliga TV rights.

That's true but there's definitely some teams that could use a decent RB. If he doesn't want to leave permanently, I wonder if a one year loan to another BL side is possible.

 

A one year loan makes zero sense for us. We have no significant cover for his position. If we loan/lose Chandler we'd actually have to buy another rightback. Also, why should Chandler get to play in the first division when the rest of his colleagues will be expected to work their asses off in the second division if we do get relegated?

No, either he gets sold (which is quite possible) or he goes down to division 2 with us.

 

See that is what I thought as well. My intention was honestly not to be a jerk, but I just think it's completely unfair that I got banned from here for literally posting nearly the same thing. I mentioned a midfield pairing on one of the yanks abroad page and I was issued a warning . I disputed that saying that it involved the player and his recent club play, which angered the all mighty admin, who in turn restricted my posting privileges. I will there was some consistency.

 

Those posts happened after the original post, but they do not relate to this topic so I expect them all to be deleted included my own posts.

 

Look I understand you upset about getting suspended but there is no need to take it out on everyone else. You said you weren't meaning to be a jerk but it defiantly came off that way. I'll refrain from posting anything but strictly chandler updates at nurnburg in this thread on your behalf. Sorry for the crapstorm.

 

Dude's just taking the internets too seriously at the moment. It's all good.

 

Sorry man. Unlike what the poster above is saying, I was actually being not serious at all. I was serious when I said that admins have warned me for doing what you did, but I honestly do not care whatsoever. I think it's dumb that it's against the rules to post about stuff outside of Chandler at Nuremburg. It makes the topic so dull.

 

So how many games do you think Chandler would need to play to be match-fit enough to warrant a call-up by Klinsmann for the pre-World Cup camp?

 

I would say probably two full 90's.

 

Yeah given the circumstances I think they throw Chandler back in the fire immediately

 

It will be interesting to see what N'berg do tomorrow...he may not start the match but he may be brought on later since he's a good attacking threat down that flank. Only thing is: N'berg need points and usually you don't see many subs on the backline so they may feel compeled to start him or not play him. He's been doing full training so we'll see.