That Michigan ad might work. The Dem needs to get specific about her stance on certain issues, and have a few "woman on the street" ads putting a human face on the legislation. ??? Why is it shocking?
Because Tillis hasn't been polling anywhere close to 40%. With the NCCivitas poll showing him at 39% and 19% undecided, even taking into account margin of error, Brannon could take more than 3/4 of the remaining undecideds and still lose.
Ah, you meant the MARGIN, not the VICTOR, was shocking. OK, I'll buy that. The MOE was 5.1%, which is pretty high. And I think that means that 95% of the time, they're right +/- 5%. Either Tillis has serious momentum, or this poll is one of the 5% of outliers, not one of the 95% within the norm.
Conventional wisdom all along has been that Tillis and Brannon were heading to a money-draining, candidate-weakening runoff. By needing only 40% to avoid a runoff, Tillis has to be thrilled if he really is that close to 40% already with so many still undecided.
I don't think that's entirely true. Indiana's failure, for example, to do the Medicaid expansion will have pretty negative effects for them. NC is a bit more purple than IN, but both will have a bit of blue rebound once Obama is out.
Undecideds end up following the rest of the voting population, they just decide to do so at the last moment. In the majority of presidential elections, they split roughly 50/50.
You are saying because nagin and blanco messed up the response the republicans benefited from it. Not really Louisiana was already swinging to the republicans in 2000 win GWB won it comfortably and again when he took it in 04. It has taken longer for republicans to take over it locally but now they are in complete control. Landrieu will just be collateral damage in this shift.
A blue rebound in Indiana no way. Obama barley winning Indiana was once in a lifetime event for dems. They are never winning Indiana for a long time. NC is a true purple state he lost NC in 12 because of lower turnout in the research triangle and a lower vote total for him in eastern NC.
No, I am not saying that. I'm saying many, many black people moved out of Nawlins and never came back. PS...It's cute how you let Bush off the hook there. And by "cute" I mean hilariously obvious and weak.
Well sounds to me that that is where a lot of the sampling regarding Indiana is coming from. I will be shocked if Indiana goes Blue for Hilary.
It wouldn't go Blue for Hilldog (and nobody ever said it would). That said, with any luck, she won't be the candidate. It's quite possible that the Reeps will lose the governorship, Indy's mayoral seat, and a congressional seat though.
I really should not talk shit about Indiana; we are probably going to have a Republican Governor here in Illinois pretty soon. Democrats that want to run for Governor in 2018 have the knives out for Quinn.
True with the demographic shift. Bush was just as fault and even more then both nagin and blanco I meant local fault. Bush is a boob and his presidency tanked and rightfully after katrina.
Sure, I'll defer to your knowledge of the state. I'm sure you're an expert on the political happenings here.
Romney beat Obama by 10 points http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Indiana,_2012#Campaign On the presidential level your democrat party is toast in Indiana.
What the governorship, a congressional seat and the mayoral job of Indianapolis?? Well Indianpolis is a Democratic city so they should naturally have a democratic mayor guess they are just underperforming. What makes you think Pence will lose his job. He is really conservative and win by only 3 points but let's see if the Ds can knock him off in 2016. Picking a congressional seat big deal you should have a couple In your state anyway.
Indinia is a consistently republican state however not a crazy republican state like Oklahoma or Tennessee. Hence a nut job like murdouck losing to a moderate dem like Donnelley can and does happen. However the margin for error for dems in your state isn't large. Even a nut like Murdock got 44% statewide so their is a well entrenched conservative base in the state.