Jozy and the Footycats: Altidore at Sunderland

Ah, I see now they've put assists back on the website. But they no longer count drawn PK's as assists.

 

When it comes to the "was it/wasn't it a penalty" argument, despite the danger of seeming vain, I'll repeat my previous post and raise it

Raising it is this: the purpose of being a defender is to, well, defend, and to quote Bobby Moore, "you can't defend when you're on your backside."

Azpilacuetta was on his backside and made contact. He was either a) committing a foul, or b) incredibly negligent. Either way, it's his bad.

 

Alright, so then quadruply honest: perhaps "not sure I would've expected" is the most telling phrase of this post.

 

The EPL does not give an assist for PKs won. The Bundesliga does.

 

Jozy has missed tap in and not done well when rarely sent in by teammates. This only accounts for about two or three chances in the whole season but still.

The bigger point is that Altidore does not look as hungry as he was to score as he was at AZ. He doesn't attempt to turn his man...he doesn't take shots...he doesn't looks predatory in the box. Even if your team is bad as Sunderland..as forward at this level these should be natural. Wickham craves to score. Altidore, before he was benched looked reticent out there.

 

Yeah but the EPL did a few years ago as well.

Personally I'm okay with either approach. I understand how it makes sense, since the PK winner arguably has the most important contribution on the play, but I can also understand why you would leave it off, especially if you think that the assist stat is primarily supposed to tell you about a player's passing rather than just their contribution to a play.

 

Sensibly, you could argue that there might not have been contact or if there was it was not what caused Altidore to slip (and thus didn't impede him). However given that Altidore seemed to lose his footing at pretty much the exact time that there appeared to be contact, makes it most likely a penalty for me. Regardless I don't think anyone can rightly complain (not that that won't stop some, looking at you Mourinho), it was not a bad call by the referee.

 

Do they stock those eight balls at Walmart? I could use one.

 

Solskjaer was having great success subbing in 19 yr old Daehle at Cardiff so he decided to start him yesterday. Didnt work for various reasons I will not go into. The game was so important to Solskjaer that he over-thought it. Sometimes you let your wizard be a wizard. Sir Alex could have told him that.

Nothing wrong with coming on and creating goals.

 

I don't think what I said is at all unreasonable

 

Irony alert!

 

The way you describe it, Jozy fouled Azpilicueta. You cant move your foot away from the ball into the path of a moving defender who is not even moving towards the ball and claim a foul.

 

The Chelsea fans have taken the abuse of Altidore to a whole new level, with death threats and racist BS.

This time the S'land fans are defending him, though.

 

Didn't mean to suggest Liverpool was worst last year, just that Jozy went from being ragged on as worst player in EPL to - contributing to - determining who's in first. And of course Liverpool's own Borini the goal scorer will get the credit from Liverpool fans, that is to be expected. But...Jozy's now known for something else other than his abysmal goal-scoring record this season. That has to be good for him, and USMNT.

 

I just think the English are resistant to stats apart from goals and points. Kinda like they are resistant to tactics.

I should hope so for your own sake.... but that was precisely my point.

1 - He has? Was this in a closed-doors game no one was allowed to see?

2 - But still? Two or three set up attempts for a forward from teammates in 30 games gets a but still?

3 - On this, we agree 100,000,083%. That number is not a typo.

4 - Before he was benched, for example, Altidore got 10 touches in a half at Arsenal. I'm fairly certain you have not correctly identified the reticent parties on that team. So rather than use some sort of expressive emoticon to someone who kindly offered the guess of 2-3 teammate set-ups all season, let's see if you can imagine what the face I'm making at you right now looks like.

 

I only have the one camera angle to work with, so I can't be 100% certain. But for me this was neither a dive nor a penalty. It was just an unfortunate accident that was wrongly called a penalty. Jozy steps on the defender's leg and the defender's forward movement brings Jozy down. No penalty.

As a USMNT fan, I don't really care that much, except that this may save Sunderland from relegation. The bigger picture is that based on his play this season, Jozy just isn't starting EPL striker quality, and may get sold in the summer. However, Sunderland would do so at a loss, so they may have to retain him. At this point, it's hard to make a case for Jozy's inclusion into the World Cup squad, and impossible to make a case for him starting in Brazil. What a difference a season makes. I don't think the EPL is the right league for Jozy. He'd be better off playing in Italy or Spain, but I can't imagine there'd be much interest from clubs at this point.

 

Really? I am no expert and only am familiar with USSF advice, but this is some of the advice on tackles:

"Making contact with the opponent before the ball when making a tackle is unfair and should be penalized."

Further, the guidance is "careless." Was Azpilicuteta careless in his tackle? Slide tackles that make contact are almost, by definition, careless. The defender has no "right" to that area. Just like "bridging" is explicitly called out in USSF's advice as a trip if the defender "moves under the opponent and uses the body to upset or upend the opponent."That quote is more in reference to balls in the air, but the concept is the same - the defender has no "right" to that area, just because the attacker is "in the air" and even though his feet may be "moving away from the ball."

I do not think your assessment is correct according to USSF interpretations. Again, the EPL/FA might have different guidance.

 

I don't seem to remember you making a point. Altidore has really shown any hunger to get into the positions to get chances and when he has been in the position the finishing has been poor.

Saying Altidore hasn't been really bad in front of goal 1000 times won't make it any different.

 

Never said he did.

 

Azpilicueta was not moving his foot towards the ball and contacting Jozy before contacting the ball. He was moving in a line that would block the path of the ball on the ground between the ball and the goal. Jozy's foot became planted in the line the defender was moving. Was Jozy entitled to that space when he arrived there first or was he interfering with the defender?

B.t.w., I havent seen enough yet to convince me that it was/was not a foul so I imagine it must have been a difficult call for the ref. The vids are really difficult to analyze by themselves separately. Chelsea were not cheated, they gave the ball away to a striker in the area of the box for cripe's sake.

 

Our new director of football is Welsh and he's a huge stathead (http://espnfc.com/columns/story/_/id/1180420/hesse:-the-houston-problem?cc=5901).

I don't know what kinds of algorithms are being used by people who are actual decision-makers now. I know Andy Carroll's big move to Liverpool was vindicated by some because you can quantify aerial duels fairly well and Andy Carroll is exceptional in aerial duels. Of course, he's a one-dimensional player who requires the team behind him to play in a very specific style - which you could have found out by asking an intelligent season ticket holder at Newcastle United (hard as that may be to find )

I don't have as much faith in football stats to convey the on-pitch experience as I do in baseball, hockey or basketball. Hockey goalies face so many more more shots against and shot quality normalizes a little more. Something like Corsi is very useful, it's "advanced" but it's so simple: 5-on-5 shots for while a player is on the ice minus 5-on-5 shots against. You can adjust it for quality of competition by noting who's out there for the opposition, you can measure things like offensive zone starts which have a huge impact on both Corsi and the big "counting stats" of goals, assists, points and plus-minus. Looking at hockey through an entry-level advanced stats-lens has enhanced my understanding of the game.

I haven't reached that place in football yet. Everything is so much less quantifiable in a sport which is about the interactions of 22 players on a given day. There are no stops and starts, there is no easy way to account for quality of competition and sample sizes across the board are (for me) extremely small in comparison. I don't know what Lee Congerton's specific approach to using advanced stats as part of a scouting portfolio is. Because my club is trusting him with a lot of money, I hope he's either using tools I don't know or putting the ones we have in context. Sunderland's transfer business over the last ~five years might be some of the worst in the world, so it's hard to be against any new approach. My favorite was when O'Neill bought glacially slow players for a counter-attacking system and wondered how we were ending games with zero shots on target.

Turnovers, for example, is a terrible statistic by itself. Gus should put me up front because I might be atrocious (and ineligible for the competition, not that that's stopped us before), but I have 0 turnovers in Premier League play this season. Let's look at why Altidore doesn't have too many turnovers compared to other Premier League forwards. He's not on the ball very much - easy to see, widely groaned about here. Everything runs through a Luis Suarez, so he'll ship the ball away more. He's conservative in possession; Wickham looks like he tries more tricks and through passes, regardless of how efficient he is with it. There's nothing outrageously wrong with being conservative in possession and his lack of involvement in the attack is a complicated issue, but I don't know how a stat that basically pays lip service to those two points vindicates Altidore.

 

There have been many more occasions of him getting into position but not seeing a pass or a good pass or a properly-timed pass than the occasions of him "not showing any hunger" or finishing poorly from a good set-up combined. By a lot. And the the claim he does not go for positions or have good finishes saved/waved at all seems pretty much down to the fact your opinions on this player can tend to lean that way. And that was my point.

And saying Altidore hasn't been really bad in front of goal but a couple times is not a commentary on Altidore at all. It is a commentary on the team "behind" him serially neglecting one of the first tactical priorities of the sport regardless of who is up top, which tends to reduce the number of goals scored by those players through chance starvation. Hell, Wickham received as many gilt-edged chances inside 35 minutes of play (spanning two different games) than Altidore has seen in 2014. That is real. It is not meant to make anything different, just to help explain. And it has been only part of a complex explanation covering several factors.

Of course, that sounds tiring, so maybe we can just keep it fast and simple to all agree that Altidore sucks, deserving no better than a warehouse job at IKEA. And not one of the good ones, either.

 

1 - Some are helpful, though not comprehensive for understanding a game like a couple other sports. But then again, I also kinda make up my own stat categories for private use.

2 - Oh, there is no doubt you are right about the touches to turnover ratio (even if it can be argued, and particularly in the case of Altidore, that strikers tend to act sharper the more touches they get). That is just simple math, so you will not have any debate from me on it.

2a - I have watched Wickham closely these last games. His turnovers are both tried things and simple errors in hold-up play, where he is often slow to know where he is going with the ball (something one cannot say about Altidore in the same capacity). You may call it conservative, but I am not sure I want strikers to start trying tricks in hold-up play not far over midfield. I also do not want them handing the ball over around midfield, which Wickham does more than any of the other Sunderland forwards (not just Altidore).

2b - Around the area, I fully agree Altidore is not nearly aggressive enough and this has been going on for some months now. Wickham has shown the better final third mindset for this team because he is much more selfish, and I do not mean that in bad way.

2c - It was not an attempt to pat his back. It was a response, and not my first, to the consistent claim that he loses the ball more than the other strikers there with objective numbers. To be fair, none of them have so many turnovers and touches, but his rate is still lower than the others.

 

How was this penalty?