http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...-pro-gay-anti-nsa-and-running-for-senate.html I'd vote for her. She's running against Susan Collins in Maine.
Pffff. I don't put ppl on ignore, for starters. But I'll throw some relevant news your way: in *GOP* polling, Landreau is topping any and all Republicans. My computer is having technical difficulties, so maybe you could do us a solid and post the polling links? I think it just came out today ...
Thanks for the heads up. Just saw the poll. However, had you not mentioned it, I probably would have filed this one under the “not especially relevant” category because for this race, I’m more interested in general election polls than primary polls. In fact, her support is actually declining from the previous poll. Anytime a candidate is shown to be “leading” in the polls, but at only 39%, that should raise a red flag, and thus requires a little further analysis of the polling. Polling for Louisiana’s Senate race, because of its unique primary format, operates a little differently. The poll did not ask respondents to answer any theoretical head-to-head general election match-ups that will no doubt take place in the run-off after Election Day. This was a poll for the primary only, so instead, it simply put the incumbent up against three other candidates who are running as Republicans. Now, at first glance, the incumbent seems to have a big lead because of the large amount (28%) of undecided voters. However, given the next two results from the poll, we can probably estimate that a good portion of those undecided voters will end up breaking for the Republican once it’s a choice between two. One particularly alarming number is that the incumbent’s favorability at 42% is just slightly better than Kay Hagan’s. Further, only 34% of respondents believe the incumbent should be re-elected, compared to a whopping 56% who believe a new person (i.e. Republican TBD) should be elected. Not exactly something to start popping the champagne about, if you’re a Democrat at least.
God damn dude. You're trying to predict the voting behavior, much less the turnout behavior, of undecideds, six months away from an election with multiple disliked candidates? Landrieu is in a lot of trouble. She will probably not win the election. But stop trying to fake knowledge.
Also, I should mention that the poll didn't mention why the undecided voters were undecided. Were they independent voters who were torn between the incumbent or voting for a Republican? How many were dependable Republican voters who simply hadn't made up their minds on which of three candidates to support, which thus inflated the number of seemingly "undecided" voters? While it's hard to know for sure, Landrieu is seen as an underdog given what we know about the state's makeup, the unpopularity of the incumbent, as well as turnout patterns during midterms.
Scott Brown to formalize Senate run in New Hampshire with rally on Thursday Here is the latest polling data on the race
Pryor with slight lead over Cotton in new poll I enjoyed this analysis of Scott Brown's chances in New Hampshire.
Best line from this story, comes from my wife's boss: Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) reportedly snarked: "The Constitution guarantees every state two senators, but the Constitution does not guarantee every senator two states." And that's how I feel, in general. The towering arrogance of the man. And yet, like New Yorkers voted for Hillary, New Hampshire may follow suit, especially with the ease with which Brown should be able to raise national money.
While Hillary was a carpetbagger, she was still very popular in NY and that popularity was enough to overcome the carpetbagger label.. That isn't the case with Brown.
Maddow just raked him over the coals the other night showing how he's a one trick pony now deprived of his one trick: Obamacare. He is so thoroughly toothless now it's not even funny. That showed in the last election.
Latest Suffolk poll for Iowa: Braley (D) 38%, Ernst (R) 30%, Undecided 32% Braley (D) 37%, Jacobs (R) 31%, Undecided 32% As things stand, it’s looking more and more like control of the Senate will come down to nine truly competitive races (NC, AR, LA, AK, IA, MI, GA, KY, and CO), and whichever party wins five of them will win or hold the Senate. The races in VA, NH, OR, MN, and MT appear to be more long shots at this point. Still interested in seeing who Republicans nominate in OR and MN, however.
He's not alone on the political scene in that. You could probably count the ones that don't fit that description on one hand.
There's a difference between Hillary Clinton and Brown -- Clinton never ran for office before the NY senate race -- she was never elected to office in Arkansas or anywhere else before she ran in NY. Technically, she was still a carpetbagger, since she didn't have any deep ties to New York before she moved there to run for office, but at least she has only represented one state at any level of government.
Two WTF polls today: One with an out-of-nowhere 10% lead for Mark Pryor, and one with a out-of-nowhere 16% lead for Scott Walker. There is no chance Pryor actually has a double-digit lead, but by playing the anti-Obama card, let's just say he's unquestionably rebounded.
In fairness the only things that would poll above 50% in North Carolina right now are Jesus, basketball, and pork barbecue.
Landrieu has survived in similar hostile environments in 02 and 08. She beat Terrell in 02 with 51% of the vote and beat Kennedy in 08 with 52% of the vote. That is her ceiling, the key is trying to run up her total in NO and baton rogue. Over the Acadia region traditionally a democratic haven and home of the Cajuns is rapidly becoming heavily republican. Louisiana has swung so far to the republicans in the last 10 years and with Obama massive unpopularity there I see her falling.
You people excited yet? North Carolina kicks off primary preseason in less than 2 weeks. And a shocking poll suggests that establishment favorite Tillis may just avoid a run-off against the nut-job Greg Brannon. That would be the opposite of good news for Hagan.