The whole point of this league is to replace the majority of friendlies with this competition. So while there will be some teams available on some match days, most spots will be filled by this competition. The remaining dates will probably be in high demand too. So yeah, I do think I've got reason to think this will make it more difficult for the United States to schedule friendlies against European sides.
It's a huge shake-up of the calendar ... so yea after Russia2018 it will be much harder to schedule a friendly against UEFA NTs. I'm a proponent of inviting NTs from other confeds (like C-BOL sometimes invites you guys) ... add 10 non-UEFA NTs to the UNL trny and you'd have 64 NTs which can easily be divided over the 4 divisions (each division consisting of 4 groups with 4 teams in each group).
@Blondo There was discussion on the radio about this... Some good point and they used the example of Belgium... Belgium has been a 'pot 4' nation in the past number of years but still not without a chance to qualify. In the new set-up they'll be though... It will be necessary (except for a very, very tiny backdoor) to first gain promotion a number of times to higher tiers/leagues, before a credible opportunity opens up to qualify. But that will take a number of 'cycles' and probably too much time than a talented generation can bear (and you don't learn a lot by playing against Cyprus). It will anyway cause friction with the qualification campaign, because what's the purpose of playing if you're already qualified through a different route? Similarly, the big brands with crappy generations will be happy too about this.
As I said earlier: I'm guessing that NTs will be divided into 4 'large tiers' (= groups/divisions) according to the UEFA national team coefficient rankings generated by calculating: 2014 World Cup (Qs and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting EURO 2016 (Qs and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting 2018 World Cup (Qs) - 40% of total weighting Although the format hasn't been finalized yet ... most likely the top 12 - 14 NTs will end up in the premier tier ... the likes of Germany, Holland, Belgium, Italy, Spain, England and Switzerland sailed through the Brazil2014 qualifiers undefeated and seem to have a head start but there are still many matches before the final ranking ... so the coefficient rankings will be hugely important once (after the 2018 WC Q play-offs) and from that day onwards it's about promotion/relegation? If this is the case ... we could get into the top flight division from the very beginning ... it does mean we need results in the next 3 competitions (Brazil2014, France2016 and Russia2018 ... including Qs and final tournaments) ... if FIFA had opted for the Holland/Belgium bid instead of the Russia bid, this could have given us a boost ... but hey woulda, coulda, shoulda. Regardless it's a friendlies trny ... still if we use the most current qualifiers as an indication ... Belgium was a pot 3 NT but dominated the group ... in this kind of UNL format we wouldn't even have to face the top tier countries but end up in tier 2 or worst case scenario tier 3 (our coefficient today places us comfortably into the 2nd tier but by 2018 we could have improved to a premier tier coefficient). It will be hard to compete in the top tier and most likely the first trophies are less coveted than when this new trny draws a larger crowd ... ending up in a lower tier wouldn't be all that bad as it will be easier to win a play-off spot and EURO2020 berth ... so yeah put us in the lowest tier together with a couple of mini-states and we'd most likely steamroll to a EURO2020 ticket (if we haven't earned it already in the Qs)
Thing is that it will take a number of cycles to promote, and by then a Golden Generation has already faded... It'll do the same as the Champions League; widening all sorts of gaps. Is it? In any case, shitty countries will be forced to play against other 'shitty' countries. You don't get better from that.... same for countries outside the UEFA... (except Brazil and Argentina perhaps in one or another way).
Yeah, Belgium was a pot 4 nation for 2012 Euro qualifying, but in qualifying there were 6 pots. There only will be 4 pots for the UEFA Nations League. Belgium at their lowest ranking would have been pot 3 in the UEFA Nations League. Looking at the bottom 16 ranked teams by the UEFA coefficient used for Euro 2016, there is no one of consequence: Gibralter, San Marino, Andorra, Malta, Faroe Islands, Liechtenstein, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Cyprus, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Macedonia, Moldova, Lithuania, Albania and Northern Ireland. I doubt any of those nations will ever make it into pot one. But even if a good team falls all the way to pot 4, they are always potentially only 3 cycles (6 years) from pot 1. If they truly deserve it, they'll get promoted. And if by some fluke they don't, well, they have the Euros and World Cup qualifying to prove themselves. The promotion and relegation aspect makes sure that every team will take every game seriously.
@PuckVanHeel You know that I'm not a fan of this trny ... most likely it will have to mature so we'll have to wait and see how much NTs will care about it in the beginning. The biggest prizes seem to be those play-off spots (and final 4 EURO2020 berths TBD in March 2020) ... competing in an easier division wouldn't be the end of the world as featuring in EURO2020 generates a lot more revenue than a friendlies trny in its infancy ... also unlike clubs you do not have to sell your best players ... usually when you receive a big blow in international football, NTs tend to respond, e.g. overhaul their youth development ... honestly I mainly care about introducing new players into our squad and this format will make that task harder unless we decide that this friendlies trny is less important. Regardless NTs that want to get into the top tier will probably have to get results in the next 3 competitions: Brazil2014, France2016 and Russia2018 (Qs only). Belgium (and Holland, Germany, etc.) already racked up points in the Brazil2014 Qs and could do well in Brazil ... so far it's looking good but there are still many matches ahead of us. PS would this entail that the EURO2020 Qs will have 10 groups ... top 2 qualify directly and final 4 EURO2020 berths TBD in March 2020?
6 years is a lifetime in a football career... It is one of the aspects why this is a protectionist measure. It's ofc nothing new; other team sports also work with a tier-system for national teams. Well, probably this will become a cash cow like the UCL. The frequency of the tourney and also the density of 'marketable' fixtures as England-Germany will probably help to gain good revenue. Switching NT can happen. The incentives to do so will be larger, I can imagine. Yes, but good luck without money and competition. That're the two main things in sports: with money you buy assets and know-how, and with facing actual good competition you meet resistance/experience and can climb up in the pyramid. Agree with you it'll depend on how it will be worked out but I just base my gut-feeling on other team sports working with tiers (and the UCL, which kind of works with tiers too, as well as frequent meetings of big brands as business model).
Do you expect that they'll abandon the all-play-all principle in the qualifiers too? It could happen if this friendlies trny is a big success ... still UEFA already overhauled the Qs (week of football, etc.). and have gained control/centralized revenue (looking to make it a more lucrative product) ... having promised large underwritten guarantees to the biggest countries, UEFA will try to maximize profits from friendlies too with this UNL concept. PS most players never feature in the FIFA Confederations Cup ... some trophies you just have to skip ... this UNL trophy will never be as big as the EUROs or World Cup ... well it has to be created first and then we can have a look at its longevity and popularity.
This is obviously a way for UEFA to try to make more money, because they know that nobody cares about the current international friendlies. They think that they can get a better television deal if there is some sort of league or championship involved, and perhaps more live attendance if there are things like promotion or relegation on the line. So, where does that money go? Is there any incentive for the CL clubs to have their stars risk injury or fitness by playing in these Nations League matches? Or is this just lining the pockets of the bureaucrats (and worse) at UEFA?
AFAIK the risk of injuries won't increase (players get injured at their club too and NTs suffer the consequences) ... the FAs are eager because they'll get a piece of the pie (clubs are also compensated) ... but yea UEFA most likely won't be poorer when it kicks off and they'll tighten their grip/power over FAs ... the big European leagues will still possess products that are more attractive than the UNL ... I think it was Champagne who was 'afraid' of the NBA-fication of football (1 league being too dominant and FIBA being powerless) ... after Russia2018 UEFA will have another product to prevent that from happening.
UEFA hasn't made any money from international friendlies before. That was only between the two participants of the friendly. Now, UEFA can also earn money from the remaining international dates where no qualifiers are played. This won't increase the risk of injury, though. Supposedly, no additional games are played. Everything happens on the international dates that already exist. In my opinion this is extremely boring. UEFA nations already play each other in Euro and WC qualifiers. There's no need to play even more UEFA teams in this Nations League. The only difference being that the best UEFA teams never play each other in qualifiers as they are all top seeds. But everyone was still free to schedule friendlies against them. Germany played France, Italy and England last year. Friendlies against teams from other continents will become mostly impossible now. All open dates are gone.
Here's a mock-up of possible UNL divisions based on the same UEFA national team coefficient rankings that were used in the draw for UEFA Euro 2016 qualifying (December 2013 edition): Tier 1 (12 NTs) Group A: Spain, Russia, Bosnia Group B: Germany, Greece, Ukraine Group C: Holland, Portugal, France Group D: Italy, England, Croatia Tier 2 (13 NTs) Group A: Sweden, Serbia, Turkey Group B: Denmark, Ireland, Slovenia Group C: Switzerland, Hungary, Israel Group D: Belgium, Czech Republic, Norway, Slovakia Tier 3 (13 NTs) Group A: Romania, Latvia, Wales Group B: Austria, Finland, Bulgaria Group C: Poland, Scotland, Estonia Group D: Montenegro, Armenia, Belarus, Iceland Tier 4 (16 NTs) Group A: Northern Ireland, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Gibraltar Group B: Albania, Georgia, Kazakhstan, San Marino Group C: Lithuania, Azerbaijan, Liechtenstein, Andorra Group D: Moldova, Macedonia, Faroe Islands, Malta => NTs play each other home and away between September and December (UEFA likes to schedule double headers) => the 4 bottom teams of each tier face relegation (except in tier 4) and the 4 group winners of each tier are promoted (except in tier 1) => 4 group winners of tier 1 qualify for a final four competition (maybe the same for lower tiers?) => 1 NT from each tier can land a EURO2020 berth (TBD after play-offs in March 2020 between NTs that haven't qualified yet) => the format still has to be finalized and it looks as if ULN trnys will also take place ahead of WCs ... maybe the one ahead of Qatar2022 will be the first with promoted/relegated NTs?
Forgive us if that won't be a main consideration here. I really like this idea. It provides additional income streams for the lesser associations and really let's them see where they stand versus their immediate peers. Where does Georgia stand against Lithuania. Liechtenstein against San Marino? At the same time they still have their glamour matches against say Germany in qualifying. With all the political pressure on FIFA by other confederations to reduce European representation at the World Cup we have look out for ourselves. The expanded Euros are part of that as is the Nations League. As for missing out on "experimentation" - the best preparation are matches that actually matter. Not games with five substitutions at halftime. Give me a competitive match against Bosnia over some tired November friendly against South Korea any day.
Just curious how many soccer fans from the bigger European leagues are really interested in this tournament. To be honest, I won't pay much attention to it.
I always wonder how much ' soccer fans' from the bigger European leagues are interested in international football. Period. You fit the mould perfectly.
The format hasn't been finalized ... possibly relegating & promoting sides will enter into play-offs ... e.g. bottom sides of the top tier (the 4 3rd placed NTs) would play against the 4 group winners of tier 2. This makes it less slippery yet it's also uncertain how big the churn will be. Also it isn't clear if the UEFA NT rankings will be used once in 2018 (from that moment onwards only promotion/relegation) ... the rankings could still be used to decide in which tier/division NTs are placed alongside promotion/relegation ... or maybe just to award top-seed positions and assign NTs to pots for the (group) draw. The idea is to organize the UNL in WC cycles too ... so from 2018 onwards we can watch a final event every summer (either WC, EURO or UNL final 4 competitions) ... UEFA would need approval to determine World Cup berths though (maybe UEFA will also have to use FIFA's ranking during these cycles). - DW.de
Not only were UEFA & the FAs looking to make friendlies more lucrative ... it's also very likely that NT kits will offer more visibility to sponsors ... so from Sept. 2018 onwards it could be Mercedes Germany, Gazprom Russia, Heineken Holland, etc. ... with the increased exposure of the UNL, 'week of football', etc. this should have a decent impact on revenue. Also the Scottish FA asserted that they'll be playing in 3rd division. Seems odd ... it's more likely that UEFA divides the NTs according to the Nov. 2017 rankings (alongside the draw for the EURO2020 Qs) ... could be a case of misinterpretation ... unless Scotland gets better/worse results, 3rd division is a likely destination though.
http://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Download/competitions/General/02/08/20/36/2082036_DOWNLOAD.pdf Nations league: Division A (12 teams); B (12 teams); C (14 teams); D (16 teams); September to November 2018. European qualifiers will be in ten groups; top two in each group qualify; March to November 2019.
The Nations League is also a timely measure to shore up the importance of international vs club football. As such, it's very much to be welcomed. The increased attractiveness of the fixtures will also give FAs more money. That is only to be welcomed. I think the NL tier will be a considerable question of prestige. It'd be humiliating for a nation to be demoted. And winning promotion or making it to the final four tournament also will have lots of prestige involved. It will matter. If the format has top-tier groups consist of three teams, with 3rd place meaning immediate relegation, that's sure introduce a considerable "angst factor". Too much? Just right? I wonder. One could always add promotion/relegation playoffs. Though I guess I now lean to the automatic promotion/relegation format. I'm really looking forward to this. It's actually quite similar to a proposal of my own I dreamed up (albeit I only considered one tier for the elite - UEFA also involving lower tiers is clearly (yet) better). There will still be enough available friendly fixtures to play Brazil, Argentina, the US, Japan and other interesting non-UEFA members. And there are rewards for everyone. The top-teams compete against each other and can enter the final four mini-tournament, while the lesser teams get an additional way of qualifiyng for the EUROS AND will benefit from more money going their way on account of UEAFA's selling of the Nations League's rights and distributing these in such a fashion that the little guys get more out of it than they currently get out of friendlies no broadcaster will pay much for. Everybody wins. Which is why everybody voted for the Nations League. I'd say UEFA should be commended for this! Well done.