2014 Caribbean Cup and Caribbean Cup Qualifying Prediction Contest [R]

Here is the structure of the competition followed by the prediction contest components:

Preliminary Round: 7 teams, 9 games in 2 groups, only group winners advance
First Round: 16 teams of which 14 start here and 2 come from the Preliminary Round, 24 games in 4 groups, first place, second place, and one third place team advance
Second Round: 12 teams of which 3 start here and 9 come from the First Round, 18 games in 3 groups
Caribbean Cup Group Stage: 8 teams of which 2 start here and 6 come from the Second round, 12 games in 2 groups
Caribbean Cup games after the Group Stage: 6 teams, 5 games including a Fifth Place game
Total: 68 games

For the Preliminary Round and the First Round, predict an outcome for each game without a score. For the Second Round and the Caribbean Cup, predict a score for each game.

Score Breakdown:

1. Preliminary Round: 7.2%
All the predictions must be made before the first game of this round.

A. 0.6% per game for a total of 5.4%

B. 0.9% for each group winner predicted for a total of 1.8%

2. First Round: 24%
All the predictions must be made before the first game of this round.

A. 0.6% per game for a total of 14.4%

B. 0.4% per team you were correct about whether they would advance or not for a total of 6.4%

C. 0.2% per team you predicted in the correct standings positions for a total of 3.2%

3. Second Round: 27%
All the predictions must be made before the first game of this round.

A. 0.6% per score prediction for a total of 10.8%

B. 0.3% per team you were correct about whether they would advance or not for a total of 3.6%

C. 0.3% per team you predicted in the correct standings positions for a total of 3.6%

D. 3% per group for number of points you were off in the standings for each group for a total of 9%

4. Caribbean Cup Group Stage: 28.8%
All the Group Stage predictions must be made before the first Group Stage game.

A. 0.8% per score prediction for a total of 9.6%

B. 1% per team you were correct about their standings position for a total of 8%

C. 0.5% per team you predicted first and they finished second or per team you predicted second and they finished first for a total of 2%

Parts B and C are mutually exclusive for a team, so 9.6% + 8% + 11.2% = 28.8% without adding the 2%.

D. 5.6% per group for number of points you were off in the standings for each group for a total of 11.2%

5. Caribbean Cup games after the Group Stage: 13%
A. 1.6% for the score prediction after regulation for each game for a total of 8%

B. 1% for each game's winner for a total of 5%. These predictions must be made before the Fifth Place Game and Semifinals.

I may eventually combine this, the 2014 Copa Centroamericana, the playoff between CFU fifth and UNCAF fifth, and the 2015 Gold Cup into one big contest.

All Preliminary Round predictions must be made by May 28 at whatever time the first game starts. Predict an outcome without a score for each game. Unfortunately I don't know what the tiebreakers are but I'm assuming goal differential is first. Wikipedia doesn't have the order of the games but here are the groups with their hosts:

Group 1: Bonaire (the host), Montserrat ,and U.S. Virgin Islands play; 3 team group
Group 2: Aruba (host), British Virgin Islands, French Guiana, and Turks and Caicos Islands play, 4 team group

@IASocFan
Please sticky this topic.

 

I predict:

Group 1: Bonaire beats Montserrat, Bonaire beats U.S. Virgin Islands, and Montserrat and U.S. Virgin Islands draw

Group 2:
French Guiana 7 (wins group on goal differential)
Aruba 7
Turks and Caicos Islands 3
British Virgin Islands 0

 

Would anybody else like to make predictions?

@dinamo_zagreb

I posted some of the schedule at http://forums.bigsoccer.com/threads/2014-cfu-caribbean-cup.2003292/

 

I got 1.2 out of a possible 1.8 points from yesterday. Since the Preliminary Round is only 7.2%, somebody can join the competition later and still finish ahead of me.

 

I got all three games right yesterday.

 

I got 1 out of 3 Matchday 3 games correct. I got both group winners correct. I got 5.4 out of a possible 7.2 points from the Preliminary Round. Turks and Caicos Islands won for their first points since February 6, 2008 and they will no longer have 0 FIFA Ranking points. FIFA Rankings will be released on Friday.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Caribbean_Cup_qualification#First_round has the First Round schedule. The games will be on September 3, 5, and 7. Here are my predictions (only make result predictions, score predictions start in the Second Round):

Group 3 (at Martinique):
Martinique: 9 points
Suriname: 6 points
Barbados: 1 point (ahead of Bonaire on goal differential)
Bonaire: 1 point

Group 4 (at Puerto Rico):
Grenada: 7 points (ahead of Puerto Rico on goal differential)
Puerto Rico: 7 points
French Guiana: 3 points
Curacao: 0 points

Group 5 (at Antigua and Barbuda):
Antigua and Barbuda: 7 points (ahead of Dominican Republic on goal differential)
Dominican Republic: 7 points
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines: 3 points
Anguilla: 0 points

Group 6 (at Saint Kitts and Nevis)
Saint Lucia: 7 points (ahead of Guyana on goal differential)
Guyana: 7 points
Saint Kitts and Nevis: 3 points
Dominica: 0 points

The top two in each group and the best third place team advance. I'm predicting Saint Kitts and Nevis to be the best third place team. Based on my standings I think the results I'm predicting are obvious, but I'll post them if necessary.

 

The next round starts in 12 days. Would anybody like to make predictions? The teams in each group are listed in Post 10 of this topic.

 

Out of yesterday's 8 games, I got 3 right, IASocFan got 2 right, and ColeOfCentauri got 0 right out of 2 games predicted. I'm traveling on Monday, so I don't know when I will get to post the standings after Round 1 (which ends Sunday).

 

Here are the standings after Round 1 out of a possible 31.2 points:

1. EvanJ: 14.4 (I was the only one to predict the whole contest so far)
2. IASocFan: 9.0
3. ColeOfCentauri: 0.0

For Round 2 you need to make score predictions. Both with this and with WCQs I require score predictions after many of the worst countries have been eliminated. Here are my Round 2 predictions:

Group 7 (at Trinidad and Tobago):

Antigua and Barbuda 2:1 St. Lucia
Trinidad and Tobago 2:0 Dominican Republic
Dominican Republic 2:3 Antigua and Barbuda
Trinidad and Tobago 3:0 St. Lucia
St. Lucia 1:2 Dominican Republic
Trinidad and Tobago 2:0 Antigua and Barbuda

Trinidad and Tobago: 9 points, +7
Antigua and Barbuda: 6 points, 0
Dominican Republic: 3 points, -2
St. Lucia: 0 points, -5

I'll predict Group 8 and Group 9 later.

 

Group 8 (at Haiti):

St. Kitts and Nevis 2:1 Barbados
Haiti 2:0 French Guiana
French Guiana 1:2 St. Kitts and Nevis
Haiti 3:0 Barbados
Barbados 1:2 French Guiana
Haiti 2:1 St. Kitts and Nevis

Haiti: 9 points, +6
St. Kitts and Nevis: 6 points, +1
French Guiana: 3 points, -2
Barbados: 0 points, -5

Group 9 (at Guadeloupe):

Martinique 2:0 Curacao
Guadeloupe 2:0 St. Vincent and the Grenadines
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 0:2 Martinique
Guadeloupe 3:0 Curacao
Curacao 2:1 St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Guadeloupe 1:1 Martinique

Guadeloupe: 7 points, +5
Martinique: 7 points, +4
Curacao: 3 points, -4
St. Vincent and the Grenadines: 0 points, -5

I don't know whether the first tiebreaker is goal differential or head-to-head, but it doesn't matter to me because I predict Guadeloupe and Martinique to be tied on points and head-to-head and the tie broken by goal differential.

 

Would anybody else like to make predictions?

 

Here are the standings for Qualifying Round 2 out of a possible 27 points:

1. EvanJ: 17.85
2. IASocFan: 16.65
3. G Dawg: 10.05

For Group 8, everybody was 10 points off on the standings so everybody got the maximum possible score of 3.0 from that component.

Here are the cumulative standings out of a possible 58.2 points:

1. EvanJ: 32.25
2. IASocFan: 25.65
3. G Dawg: 10.05
4. ColeOfCentauri: 0.00 (only predicted Group 4)

I have to change how many points the different components of the Caribbean Cup will be worth because I started this topic anticipating two Semifinals and a Fifth Place game none of which will happen.

The Caribbean Cup starts on November 10. All score and standings predictions for the Group Stage must be made before it starts. Also predict which Third Place team will finish fifth overall.

Edit: Here is the scoring format for the Caribbean Cup:

4. Caribbean Cup Group Stage: 35.8%
All the Group Stage predictions must be made before the first Group Stage game.
A. 1.0% per score prediction for a total of 12.0%
B. 1.2% per team you were correct about their standings position for a total of 9.6%
C. 0.6% per team you predicted first and they finished second, per team you predicted second and they finished first, per team you predicted third and they finished fourth, or per team you predicted fourth and they finished third for a total of 4.8%
Parts B and C are mutually exclusive for a team, so 12.0% (Part A) + 9.6% (Part B) + 13.2% (Part D) + 1% (Part E) = 35.8% without adding the 4% (Part C).
D. 6.6% per group for number of points you were off in the standings for each group for a total of 13.2%
E. 1% for predicting the Fifth Place team

5. Caribbean Cup games after the Group Stage: 6%
A. 1.5% for the score prediction after regulation for each game for a total of 3%
B. 1.5% for each game's winner for a total of 3%.

 

In the Gold Cup forum it was posted that St. Kitts and Nevis may have finished ahead of French Guiana with head-to-head being the first tiebreaker. If that is the case then I will need to change the prediction scores. The Caribbean Cup groups are:

Group A: Cuba, Trinidad and Tobago, French Guiana or St. Kitts and Nevis, and Curacao (don't predict this group yet)
Group B: Jamaica, Martinique, Haiti, and Antigua and Barbuda

 

Here are my Caribbean Cup predictions:

Group A:
Curacao 1:4 Trinidad and Tobago
Cuba 1:1 French Guiana
Trinidad and Tobago 2:1 French Guiana
Curacao 0:2 Cuba
French Guiana 3:1 Curacao
Cuba 3:1 Trinidad and Tobago

Cuba: 7 points, 6 goals scored, 2 goals allowed, +4
Trinidad and Tobago: 6 points, 7 goals scored, 5 goals allowed, +2
French Guiana: 4 points, 5 goals scored, 4 goals allowed, +1
Curacao: 0 points, 2 goals scored, 9 goals allowed, -7

Group B:
Haiti 1:2 Antigua and Barbuda
Jamaica 2:1 Martinique
Martinique 2:2 Haiti
Jamaica 1:1 Antigua and Barbuda
Antigua and Barbuda 1:0 Martinique
Jamaica 1:1 Haiti

Antigua and Barbuda: 7 points, 4 goals scored, 2 goals allowed, +2
Jamaica: 5 points, 4 goals scored, 3 goals allowed, +1
Haiti: 2 points, 4 goals scored, 5 goals allowed, -1
Martinique: 1 points, 3 goals scored, 5 goals allowed, -2

Score predictions for the Final and Third Place Game must be made once those teams are known.