Just since I'm a numbers guy, I thought it would be good to (once again) open up a thread that's a bit more quantitatively heavy than the general discussion (or gameday) threads. Short-term strength-of-schedule, winning/losing streaks, statistical leaders, power rankings, playoff chances (when the time comes), etc. To get chatter started, I'll start with the first two topics mentioned: Strength-of-schedule is kinda of silly to talk about for the whole season considering it's triple-round-robin, but as two of my top three favorite teams are CHI and HOU, the early-season strength-of-schedule has been on my mind. (We don't have official power rankings or a ladder yet, but you can take the average projections from the season prediction thread for now.) For example, after a semi-rough April, CHI would be expected to shoot up in the ladder as their next six (all of May) are against the expected bottom three, even if it's mostly on the road. HOU, on the other hand, faces the expected top 3 a total of five times in just their first seven games. That's not a nice way to welcome an expansion team! Anyway, the other thing I wanted to bring up (this is more 'trivia' than 'stats') are streaks! I always seem to like streaks, not sure why. Anyway, here are all active streaks of three or more competitive NWSL games! A star * indicates the streak is on the line this weekend: BOS - Home undefeated (3) CHI - Home undefeated (6) KC - *Total winless (3), *Total losing (3) POR - *Total winning (3), *Away winning (3), *Total undefeated (4), *Away undefeated (4) SEA - *Total winless (4), Away winless (4), *Total losing (4), Away losing(4) NJ - *Away winless (6) DC - *Total undefeated (3), *Home undefeated (3), Away winless (9), Away losing (9) WNY - *Away winless(6)
I'm interested to see what happens to Boston in July when there aren't any damn home games (GRR) and they'll be on the road a lot. I think I'll do a home/away 2013 schedule v 2014 schedule matchup later. That's one way to judge strength of schedule. I also think that because NT players can really make or break a team, with-NTers/without-NTers can also be a way of judging strength of schedule. To the data!
And I would like to make a request for us to keep the discussion in this thread relatively serious, and not have certain individuals come in throwing around pointless "stats" that were pulled out of their butts.
KC ends its losing streak, but both KC and NJ extend their winless streaks. And, currently, it looks like POR will extend all of its streaks as well....
Other random stuff: --2.5 total GPG so far -----50% of games have 2 or more goals -----50% of games have featured a shutout --Home teams are 1-1-2 (1PPG) with an even 0GD
So, anyone interested in tossing in their own power rankings after the first week? Here are mine: 1. SEA - I'm not sure if beating BOS is a huge accomplishment by itself, but SEA has erased any doubts about gelling, functioning as a team, or being able to score. All while earning their first shutout ever! 2. VLWNY - The returning shield champions showed that they haven't dropped a beat, breaking their away winless streak against an improved DC squad. Just wish they didn't always open the season with an OG... 3. CHI - They're only this high because every team below them has shown a major weakness in my opinion. We'll see what happens when they host WNY next week. 4. POR - The only other team to get a win this past week, they're only above HOU because someone was able to score. Their midfield is so shoddy right now, I can't even... 5. HOU - Outplayed POR quite easily this weekend, but unless they can put a ball in the back of the net it's hard to rank them higher, no matter how skilled they are otherwise. 6. KC - What happened???? 7. NJ - They're out of my cellar, but I'm chalking up that draw to ineptitude on KC's side more than skill on NJ's side. 8. DC - Great first half, but seriously slumped after giving away the second goal. Also technically speaking didn't put one away themselves. They may be obviously better than they were last year, but psychology got the better of them in the second half. Unless they can shake that, no matter how much more technically improved they are, they may be in for another rough season. 9. BOS - Any surprise here? Poor Naeher, her defense didn't help her at all, she was great for most of the match. (Though the jumping non-save was pretty bad.)
ooh, so we can have our own weekly ranking cool, here's mine 1. SEA - It was a fun game and look forward to this team over the season. My one lingering fear is burnout of key players. It's great to have all your players at the start of the season but other teams will be getting fire power mid way during the season and let's hope seattle can keep up. 2. WNY - While they score 3 goals, I was not overally impressed with their mid and defense. Too many long balls to Kerr who was offside most of the time. I say this though, they may have the best team when NT players are away. 3. FCKC - While it was a draw, unlike most people, I thought they played well. Sky Blue is and has always been a well coached team no matter who's on the team. When healthy, they are a very sound team and won't be blown out. 4. POR - Not gonna comment 5. SBFC - See above, was impressed by them. They obviously was playing for the tie which is not a bad strategy when on the road to a superior team. 6. HOU - Let's hope they sustain their enthusiasm and style over the course of the season as there is nothing that drive fans away more than a team that have a defeatist attitude. I like what I saw from this team and I really wish they had a veteran player in their offense. 7. BOS - I would like to rank the breakers higher because like SBFC, I think they were a well coached team and held up very well through out the match. Did not lose their composure nor game plan. They may be my second favorite after Seattle. 8. WASH - Speaking about composure, game-plan, defeatist attitude, the spirit lacked all of that. Not sure what they were doing and for all the talk of new Spirit, they looked awfully close to last year Spirit except with a better defense. Parson will have a long season ahead of him if their disposition does not improve
Nice idea! 1. Seattle. Gorgeous work. Just...gorgeous. 2. WNY. Bastards. 3. FCKC. Mildly surprised that they tied SB, but I think they'll get ages better. They're missing Scott :/ 4. Portland. Rawr. I don't wanna talk about it. 5. Sky Blue. Just couldn't get it together enough, I guess. 6. Houston. Right now, I may even list them below Boston for this week. Shitty week for the Dash. Get it together, bros. I'll give them the fact that their backline was 100% populated by rookies in their literal first pro game. Valid. 7. Boston. Naeher my love, very excellent crazy chicken move. She was awesome, though. Backline was, as expected, poopy. Coulda been worse? Hopefully LDV will inject something extra in the future, but I totally understand keeping her on the bench for this one. 8. Spirit. Guys. Fer feck's sake. Taylor isn't your only attacker. Defense, get your shit together. Ash, stay on your line when your defense hangs you out to dry and holler for them to do work. Defense, DO THE ********ING WORK. Parsons, sign some defenders. PLEASE.
1.) Seattle 2.) WNY 3.) Chicago (by default) 4.) FCKC 5.) Portland 6.) Houston (would swap places with Portland, if their last second equalizer stands) 7.) Sky Blue 8.) Washington 9.) Boston
I'll comment. If this is what Riley put together for the season he will put me on the bandwagon to bring CPC back, and if you paid attention last year, that's pretty amazing. Sheesh! What a mess.
Well, in all fairness, look at what was missing. I'd reserve judgment until the missing pieces are in place.
5.) Portland - Riley is like the guy at SB, relies on defense, but he's got the forwards now. No need for mid-field with this team. 1.) Seattle - Goebel got to prove it to me. 2.) WNY - All stable coaching and organization here! 4.) FCKC - Estelle for Scott since defense still likes to sleep with balls sitting in the box. 3.) Chicago - Jury is still out. 7.) Sky Blue - Defense usually gets you in the playoffs if you have any bit of an offense. 8.) Washington - Jordan and Speed Force aren't fully fit. The spike comes mid-season. 6.) Houston - Scrappy little puppies. 9.) Boston -Who plays for this team, again?
I think I have to disagree with you here (respectfully of course!) Forwards don't make a team on their own, or create the magic by themselves. For me, midfield is key, and Portland's lack of it during the Houston game had a severe impact on Sinclaire's production. No shots on goal for her (curse you fantasy gods!). Having star forwards is superb and all, but if they never see the ball in the attacking 18... ? Also, from what I hear Riley is gunning for fluid buildup, and skipping the midfield (as you're suggesting) and playing direct out of the back would contradict that philosophy. That being said, once Vero steps in and their midfield gets sorted out ... they'll start getting their forwards proper service and whoo boy are they going to be scary! I thought Goebel played excellent soccer in the opening game. She seemed very crafty and a good touch, had solid hold up play, and was incessantly harassing the Boston back-line (forcing some giveaways and possession turnovers). She also created some dangerous breakaways working in tandem with Leroux on the right flank. That being said, even though she started last game, I don't think Laura Harvey sees her starting in her ideal starting 11. She stated in a post-game interview that Goebel was in the lineup in part to test out what Seattle's options will be when some internationals will be missing (source (~1st minute): ) . Seattle plays a 4-3-3, and my guess at the ideal front 3 would be: Rapinoe, Leroux, Kawasumi, with Rapinoe and Kawasumi as wingers/inside forwards. I think Goebel will be used more as a luxury super sub throughout the season/rotational starter. Same goes for Foxhoven.
And that's why they won't beat Portland in the playoffs? Heath and Vero will cancel out mid-field advantages by the end of the season. No way two mid-fielders winging Sydney will outperform Sinclair and Morgan (Riley will figure them since he figured out A-Rod and Tasha). In other words, is Goebel a legit big-time forward or not? I like WNY but Lines can't win it all with Wambach, so we won't go there. KC implodes again, already did it in the 1st week.
BC's Power Rankings- Week 1. I'm not including Chicago as they have yet to play a match. 1. Seattle Reign FC- Very impressive display, albeit against a team with a crappy backline. 2. Western New York Flash- While not completely dominant over Washington, they got the job done. 3. FC Kansas City- A bit wasteful, but I'm still putting them over Portland even with a draw. 4. Portland Thorns FC- They won, but were on the back foot for most of the match. 5. SkyBlue FC- Defense was great, offense was lacking. A bit fortunate to get a draw. 6. Houston Dash- Better finishing, or any kind of finishing, and they win that match. 7. Washington Spirit- Signs of hope in the first half, reverted to 2013 form in the second half. 8. Boston Breakers- Awful all around. Very little offense, midfield was dominated, and the backline was worse than Washington's 2013 backline.
....and my faith that NWSL is not a 'joke league' plummets. http://nwslsoccer.com/home/802238.html Portland is power-ranked #1 with a "solid" victory. Then it's WNY, and then SEA. And BOS above DC. wut
Seriously? Are last season's standings being taken into account? Because they shouldn't be. New season, fresh start. In what universe would a team that got lucky to get a win be ranked over two teams that won rather easily?
C'mon you have to give it to them as they know how to get people talking. I bet you if this had followed conventional wisdom no one would have even paid attention to it. Now I'll be looking forward to these each week for the lol factor
True, but at least when MLS does their power rankings it usually makes sense. Or maybe it's just b/c they have more teams, so being two spots of isn't as noticeable...
For the universe you are looking for, try the FIFA rankings. Try all the rankings (other than the NCAA's RPI), both those endorsed by academic statisticians and those put out by non-academics, that "seed" teams at the beginning of the season based on past performance.
But that's just the think though, if we take into account last season's ranking, than Portland will be ranked very high and their 1-0 win against a new team will be much less impactful, hence they shouldn't be ranked No 1
What Blaze said. Even if you ignore Seattle, WNY and Portland finished essentially even - WNY edged Portland in the standings (1st vs 3rd) and Portland edged WNY in the playoffs (champion vs runner-up) - so WNY's much stronger win should've given them the edge in the first power ranking.
Two more 'official' power rankings to consider! http://www.soccerbyives.net/2014/04/sbi-nwsl-power-rankings-week.html - Caitlin Murray http://prosoccertalk.nbcsports.com/...ign-flash-flying-as-we-move-from-past-week-1/ - Richard Farley A bit hard I think on Caitlin's part to put POR so low, though I agree they did not look all that composed on-field, but these are both definitely better than what NWSL put out.