Putin and the Russian invasion of Ukraine

I honestly just don't see this. our respective sheer size and power will mean that we will have competing national interests. in the world as I see it (zero-sum when it comes to power, standing, influence, etc.), all great powers are natural rivals and will only cooperate temporarily on a case by case basis to check and balance another great power who might be getting too big, too powerful, too ambitious.

 

Russia's size and power is going to be in your favour. Im talking long term.
The longer term strategic threat is China. They dont have the military yet, but their economy is projected to stomp US economy and will be the new global economic heavy weight in not too far distant future.
And military might grows out of economics.

This is what the pivot to Asia is all about. The US is in a relative decline so its going to have to strike alliances and marshall other countries to work with it in order to contain the rise of China.

Yeah you dont see it because of recent events, but would anyone have thought a mass-murderer communist ala Mao (killed more than 60 million people) would have ended up being the most important ally to the US to contain the Soviet threat?
So geostrategic interests will drive US and Russia to a very close partnership.

Im sure US will even let Russia do other stupid shit. lol

 

I can see your perspective and don't disagree completely. I can see the US and Russia cooperating to balance China's power and interests, but I see this cooperation as a temporary and situational one. I see the long term geopolitical reality as being closer to today's reality (i.e. a multi-polar world) than a uni-polar world dominated by China, where the US and Russia form a long-term partnership in order to balance China.

 

It will be a long term strategic partnership. China is not a short-term threat that can be managed on a temporary basis.
This will be a strategic alliance for the long haul.

And it wont be just Russia. Russia will be one of many players. It will be multi-nation alliance which will include the likes Japan, Vietnam (yep!!), South Korea perhaps India etc.
But this all depends on how well US plays chess and can marshall other nations to work with it in close cooperatioon.
Like I said, this goes to the whole pivot to Asia

Russia is really benign.

Who knows, maybe Im just a bit koko.
Smoking a little hookah at the moment and feeling a little mellow. lolz

 

Neither the US or Russia want to be close allies. The US has pushed since 1991 to keep Russia at bay from European institutions and now Russia is lead by an administration that views the US as a rival hindering it's advance, much like China does.

It has nothing to do with anybody hating Putin or not wanting to associate with a dictator.

 

Maybe they dont want, but eventually it will be out of necessity.
US should eventually get over its hostilities with Russia and work to include Russia or give it larger role in European institutions and security architecture.

 

The US and Russia should be partners. They aren't natural competitors (like say Germany and France in the 19th and 20th centuries) but for various reasons the relationship has been tanked. Maybe in a hundred years they end up allies like Germany, Britain and France are now allies, but it's so far off in the distant future that it remains in the realm of fiction.

 

It'll be more like 10 years

 

There's absolutely no chance that happens.

 

You are so wrong.

 

Why for the U.S.? Lately, I talked with some Russian guys living in Germany ... and although they obviously approved the (West-)Ukrainians' desire of getting rid of Yanukovich, they condemned that "the Americans once again stick their noses into affairs they should have no say." According to most Russians, this conflict should be solved by the EU, Kiev & Moscow without any interference from Washington (since the majority of Ukrainians apparently wants closer ties to the EU) ... but they regard the Europeans as "puppets of the US who just do what the Americans order them" and believe that Washington is interested in fueling this conflict.

Somehow I don't totally disagree with their opinion ... as I also feel that this conflict can be only solved without too much intervention from Washington (not to forget that the Obama Administration lost plenty of trust among many Europeans lately due to the NSA spying), since the times of Cold War should be definitely over!

Putin is probably getting amused to hear this ... knowing how many times the US interfered in external affairs. That's why I think that Washington should not take both hands in the current conflict.


Bonne nuit.

 

So what did Russia do to bleed us to remind us not to go into Iraq again?

 

You do realize that what's happening here is just the continuation of the Cold War, right?

 

The US influence in Ukraine is pretty overrated by Russia sources.

 

Of course one might get the impression that it is. That's why it's dangerous to make this conflict quasi a "flexing of muscles" between Washington & Moscow.

 

It really isn't.

 

Dont be naive. There will always be cold war between powerful and rival nation states.
Just that the intensity of it will vary from time to time.

 

Russia didn't have to do anything. we did all the bleeding voluntarily in Iraq.

 

you're right. let's just give Russia a free hand in Europe...
you know how well it worked out last time we wanted to leave Europe alone to deal with their own issues... scoreboard!!
USA 2 - Europe 0

 

Not only that, but Iraq was a strategic disaster.
You handed Iraq on a silver platter to Iran. So they were the main beneficiary of all your work and bleeding. Saddam, horrible as he was, was at least balancing and containing Iran influence. Now Iraq has de facto ceased to exist as a nation state and the central government (weak as it is) is adopting Iran friendly policies like aiding Bashar Al Assad in Syria, against your interests.

I also hear China is reaping most of benefits in terms of oil contracts.

What an embarassment and fiasco. lol

 

The Bush II administration offed 2 enemies of Iran. Iranians should thank George W. Bush every day in their prayers.

 

plus, in terms of standing, the US gave up the moral high ground it had in the wake of winning the Cold War and the 9/11 attacks. although it has bounced back, the war also was a drain on our economy and made our national debt balloon - which China and Russia bought up, so both countries benefited and gained power relative to the US, while the US lost both power and standing. it was a bad deal for the US from every standpoint.

 

Im 100 % positive Iran leaders are very greatful. They are not sure why you did it, but they give you thanks even if not expressing it publically lol

 

Simply put, Bush, and Cheney made a shitload of money from the whole deal.

 

You sure they are not really Iranian moles?