The 2013 Table - Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Fishy Figures [R]

Heading into the last week, there is still a chance "4" the Top-"4" in the West to all end up on 5"4"...

 

I actually came up with a slightly better chance for San Jose, about 1 in 83 million (not including the chances for Colorado to be shut out). The main difference between our numbers, though, I think stems from the fact that I adjusted for home field advantage, since home teams score about 1.5 times as many goals as away teams, you would expect slightly over 1.5 goals per game for a home team. =D

 

Yes, the Final Standings were among the closest no doubt (the others being 2000 & 2001), but Columbus were in fact holding a 2-point lead (48 vs 46) over K.C. "before the final week of games":

http://aragon.ws/soccerdb/league/table.php?stageId=135&matches=0&rounds=1&roundCount=29

On similar basis, L.A. were only 1 ahead of RSL in 2010 (56 vs 55):

http://aragon.ws/soccerdb/league/table.php?stageId=863&matches=0&rounds=1&roundCount=29

 

2008 Olympic Qualifying at the Home Depot was insane.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_CONCACAF_Men's_Pre-Olympic_Tournament

Guatemala fans, who had clinched passage to the semifinals, cheered every goal by Canada as Canada ran out 5-0 winners over Guatemala. Why? Because every goal Canada scored became a goal Mexico needed.

Mexico needed to beat Haiti by 5 goals to advance, they won 5-1. It was as crazy a scene as I remember. Mexico missed two or three golden opportunities in the dying minutes and were eliminated.

Not 13 goals, but it shows what a motivated team can do, and what they can't.

 

Going with the wild hypothetical, if San Jose scored 13 goals Saturday, then Colorado would clinch the playoffs by scoring one goal Sunday, regardless of the result. Colorado's result would be relevant to seeding, but not to qualification. They would be wise to play their goalkeeper forward until they scored their first goal.

Now this won't happen because the burden on San Jose is too high, but this format placing goals scored ahead of GD is susceptible to such a thing happening when the gap in goals scored is smaller.

 

I'd almost want to see all 11 Rapids heading for the box at the opening whistle and pounding the ball in for as long as it took to get the goal they needed. Who cares if it was 8-1 at that point.

 

By the way, "Chicago" above should be "Philadelphia" instead...

 

RSL's win over Chivas in their final game of the season has put them back in the lead for the SS, heading into the final weekend of games.

Now, that has made things a little bit more complicated, as this is likely the first time that an SS leaders have completed their schedule ahead of other challenging teams.
(In the past seasons, the final-week SS leaders would have played during the final weekend/day of games and went on to capture the trophy eventually.)

The previous observation on "NO team has EVER surrendered an SS-leading position heading into the final week of the Regular Season" will now be coming to an end, with RSL over-taking NYRB (leaders after the 2nd last week) at the top mid-week, yet vulnerable to being overtaken again by NYRB, SKC as well as Portland.

This is indeed shaping up to be a historic season...

 

I would argue that today counts as part of the "final week", and thus RSL's position as SS leaders is intra-week, and not official. If they retain it, however, I totally agree with you.

 

Great minds think alike...

 

In the example I gave earlier, Kansas City had overtaken Columbus in the final week of play in 2004. Columbus's tie in their final game took it back.

 

It all happened within the same match day (Oct-16, 2004), in fact:
http://aragon.ws/soccerdb/league/matchesAll.php?stageId=135

• 2004-10-16 - Game 1: New England Revolution - Chicago Fire SC 2 - 1
• 2004-10-16 - Game 2: Sporting Kansas City - Los Angeles Galaxy 1 - 0
• 2004-10-16 - Game 3: FC Dallas - San Jose Earthquakes 2 - 2
• 2004-10-16 - Game 4: Colorado Rapids - Columbus Crew 1 - 1

 

Other than fighting for their faint playoff lives, Phily may also have an additional incentive to get a result against SKC in the final week:

A single point will allow them to overtake Miami Fusion into 17th-place in the All-Time Table:
http://aragon.ws/soccerdb/league/table_sum.php?stageId=1547

Code:

##.    Team --------         P        W      D      L        GF    -    GA        Pts        GD
17.    Miami Fusion      122        46      24      52        199    -    219        162        (-20)
18.    Phila. Union      131        41      38      52        157    -    172        161        (-15)

 

Bonus Materials: SS Leaders before the Final Week of each Regular Season

Again, if past records are anything to go by, NYRB / SKC will likely finish as SS Winners / Runners-up in 2013.

Season	SS Leaders (*=SS Clinched before Final Week)	Lead before Final Week (Points vs Nearest Challengers)	Reference
1996	Tampa Bay (*Pts)	8 (58 vs 50, L.A.)	http://aragon.ws/soccerdb/league/table.php?stageId=1232&matches=0&rounds=1&roundCount=31
1997	D.C. (*Pts)	8 (59 vs 51, K.C.)	http://aragon.ws/soccerdb/league/table.php?stageId=1231&matches=0&rounds=1&roundCount=31
1998	L.A. (*Pts)	7 (67 vs 60, D.C.)	http://aragon.ws/soccerdb/league/table.php?stageId=1230&matches=0&rounds=1&roundCount=31
1999	D.C. (*Pts)	4 (59 vs 55, L.A.)	http://aragon.ws/soccerdb/league/table.php?stageId=1229&matches=0&rounds=1&roundCount=31
2000	K.C.	2 (56 vs 54, Chi.)	http://aragon.ws/soccerdb/league/table.php?stageId=1228&matches=0&rounds=1&roundCount=31
2001	Miami	1 (53 vs 52, Chi.)	http://aragon.ws/soccerdb/league/table.php?stageId=139&matches=0&rounds=1&roundCount=26
2002	L.A.	3 (48 vs 45, S.J.)	http://aragon.ws/soccerdb/league/table.php?stageId=138&matches=0&rounds=1&roundCount=27
2003	Chicago (*H2H)	3 (53 vs 50, S.J.)	http://aragon.ws/soccerdb/league/table.php?stageId=36&matches=0&rounds=1&roundCount=29
2004	Columbus	2 (48 vs 46, K.C.)	http://aragon.ws/soccerdb/league/table.php?stageId=135&matches=0&rounds=1&roundCount=29
2005	S.J. (*Pts)	5 (61 vs 56, N.E.)	http://aragon.ws/soccerdb/league/table.php?stageId=136&matches=0&rounds=1&roundCount=31
2006	D.C. (*H2H)	3 (55 vs 52, Dal.)	http://aragon.ws/soccerdb/league/table.php?stageId=144&matches=0&rounds=1&roundCount=31
2007	D.C. (*H2H)	3 (55 vs 52, Chv.)	http://aragon.ws/soccerdb/league/table.php?stageId=324&matches=0&rounds=1&roundCount=29
2008	Columbus (*Pts)	4 (54 vs 50, Hou.)	http://aragon.ws/soccerdb/league/table.php?stageId=491&matches=0&rounds=1&roundCount=29
2009	Columbus (*Pts)	4 (49 vs 45, Hou., Chv., L.A.)	http://aragon.ws/soccerdb/league/table.php?stageId=639&matches=0&rounds=1&roundCount=29
2010	L.A.	1 (56 vs 55, RSL.)	http://aragon.ws/soccerdb/league/table.php?stageId=863&matches=0&rounds=1&roundCount=29
2011	L.A. (*Pts)	7 (67 vs 60, Sea.)	http://aragon.ws/soccerdb/league/table.php?stageId=1006&matches=0&rounds=1&roundCount=33
2012	S.J. (*Pts)	5 (65 vs 60, K.C.)	http://aragon.ws/soccerdb/league/table.php?stageId=1312&matches=0&rounds=1&roundCount=33
2013	N.Y.	1 (56 vs 55, K.C.)	http://aragon.ws/soccerdb/league/table.php?stageId=1547&matches=0&rounds=1&roundCount=33

Quick Notes:

0. The Standings before the Final Week were normalized for each Regular Season, where every team played the same # of games.​

1. The points for 1996-1999 were indicative only, based on Shoot-outs = Ties.

2. As mentioned before, all SS Leaders leading to the Final Week of each Regular Season have won the Supporters' Shield.

3. In fact, in all but 1 season (2009), the Closest Challengers have finished as Runners-up to the Supporters' Shield.

4. 2001 season was cut short due to 911, the Final Week was taken as Week #27, Miami was leading after Week #26.

5. In 12 out of previous 17 seasons (70.59%), the SS was clinched before the Final Week of the Regular Season (9 by Pts, 3 by H2H).

6. The slimmest lead by SS Leaders were 1 point, as seen in 2001, 2010 & 2013.

7. The largest lead (8 pts) were seen during the first 2 seasons of the league, and were never matched since.​

 

Yeah, I'm sure that will factor into their performance.

 

Which, of course, is 100% dead wrong.

The Supporters Shield, even the early retroactive Shields, are/were awarded based on MLS league standings and tiebreakers.

As far as 2001, as Kansas City and New England both played an extra game, the league set the final standings using point per match. The regular season was interrupted by the events of 9/11 and the final two weeks were canceled.

 

Bonus Notes:

 

Is that a safe assumption?

If I actually thought I could find someone to pay out I'd happily bet $1 to win $600,000,000, once per game, that an MLS team will finish with more than 13 goals in a game.

Would you take the other side of that bet? I'm giving a good discount.

 

In general, yes, goals scored largely follow a poisson distribution. It is not perfect, and actual betting houses which would have the backing to be able to dish out $600m would definitely not use it, but for BS statistics, it is good enough.

13 goals in a game is ridiculously hard to do. That's a goal every 7 minutes through the whole game.

 

The points are certainly valid.

However, as SoccerDB is currently about the only source I could locate for convenient Intermediate Standings for MLS (esp. past seasons), hence was limited by the constraints of the site.

If there are other such resources for MLS (vaguely recall there were some for Euro Leagues, providing exact standings at any specified dates, rather than the normalized ones), do let me know,

Meanwhile, do allow me some time to work out the "Inconvenient Truths" for the benefits of fellow forumers...

 

Just a note, with Salt Lake's win this will now be the 18th straight year Colorado won't win the West. If Portland doesn't lose on Saturday that will make it the 18th straight year they won't finish in the top 2.

 

Interesting!! Is this streak unique to Colorado Rapids?

 

Yes, they're the only original team that's never won their conference.