The 2013 Table - Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Fishy Figures [R]

A generic, and perhaps stupid, question(s) of the M#s in the East currently.

With PHI and MTL playing one another this upcoming weekend, won't 52 points get any team into the Eastern playoffs at this point? (So could not the M# be "one less" than the current listed values for every team? Or does the M# calculation simply and fairly not consider the remaining schedule?)

 

Columbus plays NE. Yes, we are still breathing. But if we can somehow get through this week-end alive (either a MTL/Philly draw and/or Fire failing to win against Toronto) then we have a real shot looking at the final weeks schedule.

 

Just a nit @Knave, but shouldn't LA be ahead of SEA at this point? Tied on points and wins but LA has more goals scored.

 

Apparently so do Southern teams (e.g. Dallas)

 

I believe that is correct. Good catch!

 

And are San Jose burnt toast at this point?

 

1 point out of the playoffs with 2 games left to play? I would hardly say that. They don't control their own destiny, but they aren't even toast yet.

 

Look like dis weekend gon git reel. Foe yay!

 

especially when you consider the 2 teams on either side of them in the playoff race (Colorado and Vancouver) finish the season with a home and home against one another.... the Quakes could easily sneak in if things fall the right way in those matches and they pick up some points in these last 2 games. (away to LA and Dallas at home)

 

Note to self # 1: Visit the BSMX board to get a sense of what it's like to back a bus at 50 mph.
Note to self # 2: Smash head against wall for contemplating note # 1.
Too bad for the Sounders that Zusi plays for an Eastern conference team.

 

This is basically why KC has clinched.

 

Dallas at home on the last weekend seems like a good start to me.

 

San Jose is semi-toast. If San Jose wins at LA (which is a tall task, considering LA has only lost twice at home and San Jose has only won three times away), they'll be in good shape, regardless of the Colorado - Vancouver result. Otherwise, they are desperately hoping that Colorado - Vancouver ends in a tie. If Colorado beats Vancouver and San Jose fails to beat LA, San Jose is burnt toast. In that scenario, if San Jose loses to LA, they're officially eliminated. If they tie LA, the best San Jose can do is match Colorado and Seattle on 51 points. Seattle has 15 wins already, so they'd be through. San Jose and Colorado would be tied on wins (14), but Colorado currently has a 9 goal lead in goals scored and a 17 goal lead in goal difference, so San Jose would have to beat Dallas by around 10 goals to win the tiebreaker over Colorado. If Vancouver beats Colorado and San Jose fails to beat LA, you have at best a 3-way tie at 48 points, all on 13 wins. Vancouver currently has a 15 goal lead on goals scored and 14 goal lead on goal difference over San Jose. The only way San Jose advances in that case is if they win against Dallas and Vancouver - Colorado ends in a tie (or San Jose beats Dallas by about 17 goals).

If Colorado - Vancouver ends in a tie and San Jose fails to win at LA, a San Jose win over Dallas means that Colorado has to win at Vancouver to leapfrog them. Even if San Jose loses to LA, a win over Dallas puts them at 50 points and 14 wins. Two Colorado ties puts them at 50 points, but with only 13 wins, so Colorado would need to beat Vancouver in Vancouver.

So San Jose isn't full-on toast, but they really need a win on Sunday or a Colorado - Vancouver tie.

 

Yes. And the currently playoff-qualified SKC with a "M# = 1" is what drew my attention to the item and question.

 

Actually, SKC had already clinched before MTL lost to LAG and fell to 52 MPP, because PHI cannot catch SKC in wins.

 

Strangely enough, the Fire and Montreal could actually clinch a playoff spot this week despite the three way tie for fourth and NE one point back.

Points Wins GF
MTL 46 13 48
CHI 46 13 44
-----------------------------------------
PHI 46 12 40
NE 45 12 45

If MTL can beat PHI, the Fire win, and NE ties or loses, the Fire and MTL would clinch playoff spots:

Points Wins GF
MTL 49 14 48+
CHI 49 14 44+
-----------------------------------------
PHI 46 12 ?
NE 45/46 12 ?

Neither PHI nor NE could match the win total going into the last game. That would be 4 spots taken. If HOU win, they would have their spot booked as well. Despite the back and forth of the playoff race, Eastern cnference playoff teams could fairly easily be decided by Sunday.

 

If both Colorado and LA win, then all 5 teams currently above the line in the west will clinch their playoff spots.

 

So I guess, despite the close races, all playoff spots could be claimed before the last week.

 

I don't know, I think I'd consider 8 playoff spots being decided on the second to last weekend a rather close race. Also, it seems likely to me that the East still has some undecided slots after this weekend. But yeah, it is looking fairly likely that all 5 west playoff teams could end up clinching in one weekend, which is NUTS.

 

Just because

 

In RSL's defense, you could ask the same of CHI, NER, and PHI. (Though interestingly, not Richmond. I guess DCU decided they would just play the USOC with all reason upside-down.)

 

I'll bet you anything Kansas City doesn't hit that projected total.