BC defeats Duke 4-1. With BC and Miami wins today, Duke is in really big trouble just to make the ACC tournament, let alone the NCAAs UNC defeats Maryland 3-1 Syracuse defeats Pitt 4-0 for the Orange's first victory in the ACC
Shock result of the ACC (and maybe even the country) is Miami's won over Notre Dame. And stats looked like it was fairly even too. Felt Miami was perhaps the worst prepared team in the conference based on their results so this was a huge surprise to me. Congrats to them. Sounds like Waldrum was pretty disappointed in his team's effort. Doesn't get any easier with them playing at Virgina and Virginia Tech next. VA Tech and Clemson definitely showing they are the most improved teams. After today Duke has clearly become the biggest disappointment. This was a program that went to the Final Four two years ago. They are 4-6-3 now. Pitt and NC State are left and should be wins. But also left are Maryland, Clemson, Notre Dame, and UNC. Not getting to .500 is a very real possibility for the Dukies.
Yes! Those stats. I remember looking at the stats and expected seeing a domination in shots, corners, etc like you saw with UNC's loss to Notre Dame. I would almost have to see the game, becuase even stats can be misleading.
Standings from ACC.com: (Not sure why ND and VaTech aren't tied for 3rd; it's probably just for the table to be complete on the website. Anyway, they'll go head-to-head next weekend) 1. Virginia (12-0-0, 6-0-0) 2. Florida State (10-0-3, 5-0-2) 3. Notre Dame (9-2-1, 5-1-1) 4. Virginia Tech (10-1-2, 5-1-1) 5. North Carolina (10-2-0, 4-2-0) 6. Boston College (7-6-0, 4-4-0) 7. Wake Forest (8-2-2, 3-2-2) 8. Clemson (6-4-3, 3-3-1) ----------------------------------- 9. Maryland (7-6-0, 3-4-0) 10. Miami (7-4-0, 2-4-0) 11. Duke (4-6-3, 1-4-2) 12. NC State (6-7-0, 1-6-0) 13. Syracuse (5-7-1, 1-5-1) 14. Pitt (4-8-1, 0-7-0) Thursday games: Notre Dame @ UVA NC State @ UNC FSU @ Syracuse Pitt @ Miami Sunday games: Notre Dame @ Virginia Tech Miami @ Syracuse Duke @ Maryland UNC @ BC Virginia @ Wake Forest Pitt @ FSU Clemson @ NC State FSU has a great chance to get 6 points next week, while Virginia finally hits the meat of its schedule with 3 of its next four games against Notre Dame and away at Wake and UNC.
After today's games, here are the projected end-of-regular-season (pre-conference tournament) records of the ACC teams. Boston College has one additional game, non-conference, against Central Connecticut. The projection assumes that all remaining ACC games are win/loss games (no ties) and that the results are consistent with Massey's rankings based on games through September 29. I'll update tomorrow after new rankings are out.
Here's an updated end of regular season (pre conference tournament) projection, using Massey's rankings for games through yesterday, October 6. Remember, Boston College has one additional non-conference game against Central Connecticut, that is not included in the table. The table assumes that all game outcomes will be win/loss (no ties) and will be in accord with the Massey ranks. Both Massey and Bennett are "predictive" rating systems, meaning their purpose is to predict the results of future games. So far as the ACC teams' ranks are concerned, where they differ mostly is in the middle of the conference. Here's how they compare in the 8 to 11 rank area: Massey: 8. Maryland 9. Clemson 10. Duke 11. Miami Bennett: 8. Duke 9. Maryland 10. Miami 11. Clemson So far as the projection table is concerned, these differences matter. Massey has Duke losing to both Maryland and Clemson. Bennett has Duke winning against both of them. For practical purposes, Duke probably must beat both of them in order to meet the NCAA tournament's minimum 0.500 record requirement. Conversely, Clemson, now ranked at 50 by the ARPI, is a potential bubble team if the above table's projections are how it turns out.
Based on the numbers above I would guess that this system predicted that Duke would beat BC at BC. Is that correct? So the 4-1 drubbing was not predicted. I gather some blame was put on the elements and the turf (somewhat reasonable I think), in addition to the complaints about injuries (which all teams have). They have Maryland, Clemson, Notre Dame, NC State, Pitt and UNC left. Despite the recent Miami - ND result, they are going to have trouble beating ND at South Bend or UNC. Neither Clemson nor Maryland are pushovers and both are away. Clemson has won all but 2 games at home (Loss to Maryland and tie with FSU) and Maryland has won all but one (Loss to VT). I'm not sure if you said this before but do either of these systems account for home or away?
Massey actually had BC ranked higher than Duke going into last week's games, so the outcome of that game fit Massey's rankings. Although there may be a way to figure game locations into his numbers, I don't know how to do it. A couple of posts up from my post, there's another table using Massey's rankings going into the weekend. You can compare those to see how the Massey rankings changed as the result of this weekend's games. All these tables do is give a rough picture of how the 0.500 rule may affect ACC teams. The reason I keep updating the tables is because I think it is not in the interest of the ACC to keep playing a full round robin. And, more important to me, I do not think it is good in terms of national competition for the ACC to keep doing that and it isn't good for the functionality of the RPI either. So, the charts are a little bit of educational effort from me (call it lobbying if you wish) on why the ACC should change its regular season format and not play a full round robin. I'm not a fan of the 0.500 rule, by the way. I understand why they have it, but I think it keeps deserving teams out of the tournament. I'm sure a lot of people don't agree with me on that.
I don't think the 0.500 rule is the primary problem with the full round robin. The real problem with the full round robin (or large conferences) is that, once you enter the conference schedule, the average win percentage in every conference is 0.500. The more conference games you have, the more weight those conference games have. As for the 0.500 rule leaving deserving teams out, someone can correct me, but I suspect that it leaves out a team less than once per year, and most of the time that team will be on the bubble any way.
You're right about the number of teams left out in the past because of the 0.500 rule: 2 over the last 6 years. And you're right, each time a bubble team. But, if new mega conferences get big enough and play full round robins, that number will go up. That's part of why it's worth following what happens with the ACC this year. You're also right about there being an "average winning percentage" problem -- the greater the number of conference games, the more the conferences' teams' average winning percentages -- and thus their RPIs -- are pulled towards 0.500. From an RPI perspective, however, there is another problem. Due to the structure of the RPI, two teams can have equal ratings but very different winning percentages and strengths of schedule. From Team A's perspective, if it has a choice of which of the two possible opponents to play, it will want to play the one that has the better winning percentage, because that team will contribute more to Team A's strength of schedule. This is because, the way the RPI measures what an opponent contributes to Team A's strength of schedule, its opponent's winning percentage effectively accounts for about 80% of the contribution. Here's the rub: in most cases, a team from a very strong conference is going to have a poorer winning percentage than an equally ranked team from a mid-level conference. So, if a team from a very strong conference has a choice between playing an opponent from its own conference or an equally ranked opponent from a mid-level conference, from an RPI perspective it would choose the opponent from the mid-level conference. It will get more strength of schedule bang for the buck because the mid-level conference team will have a better winning percentage than the equally ranked in-conference team. Thus, from an RPI perspective, if a very strong conference has to choose between a full round robin or a scheduling format that allows more non-conference games, it will opt for more non-conference games and will try to schedule non-conference opponents that will have good winning percentages. And, in case you are wondering, the difference from an RPI perspective is significant. When the season is over, I'll be running an ACC "test," in which I will modify the ACC teams' schedules to have each team play only 9 conference games rather than 13, replacing the four "given up" conference opponents with equally ranked (by 1 position or 2) non-conference opponents. I can do it in a way that produces a fair indication of how the change affects teams ratings. Based on work I did using the SEC's 2012 season, I'm guessing that the change will benefit ACC teams, on average, by more than 5 ranking positions. It may have a small effect on seeds, but where it really could matter is in whether borderline bubble teams get into the bubble or are left out in the cold.
This week will be very interesting in the ACC. cp's snapshot of the end of the season should be a lot more clear on Sunday evening. Some possible outcomes: Virginia Tech. ...First, a little "I told you so".... After the UNC-VT game when VT was 0-1 in the ACC, I predicted that they would do very well and surprise a lot of ACC teams. Since that time VT is undefeated in the ACC and Sunday will be the big watershed for the Hokies. I'll go out on a limb and predict a win over Notre Dame -regardless of the Irish's results at Virginia on Thursday. Virginia. This week --two big games. The big showdown is on Thursday with ND. That should be a barn burner. Both teams should be really up and ready for action. It could go either way. But I think that VA will pull through with a tight win to preserve their undefeated record. However, there is real danger lurking on Sunday as a well-rested Wake Forest team would love nothing better than to knock off the top ranked team and make it three years in a row over the Cavaliers. Notre Dame. This will be the toughest week yet in the ACC for the Irish. If they play up to their very talented potential, they'll be fine, but if the are just a step slow, this week will be ugly. Simply put, success is possible, but this week just might end up 0-2 for results. Yep, might just happen that way. Wake Forest. On paper it is Virginia over Wake, but coming down off a big adrenalin rush on Thursday, the Hoos are vulnerable. The Demon Deacons will be ready and waiting. Nobody should be surprised if an ambush occurs in Winston-Salem. Florida State. Syracuse and Pitt are on the menu for the Seminoles. Potentially quite tender and delicious, although the Orange flavor may be a little bitter and induce some choking at at various points during the meal. However, if the Seminoles stay hungry, everything should go down just fine. UNC. The Tarheels should get warmed up on Thursday chasing down the neighboring Wolfpack and be ready for the trip to Boston on Sunday. BC has been playing well and could put up a stiff fight, but if the Heels don't make any critical defensive mistakes, they should come home with a result. Boston College. BC had a good week last week pushing Florida State in a 3-4 loss and trouncing Duke 4-1. Their offense is really clicking. The eagles have 7 days to get ready for the visiting Tarheels. It will be the BC offense against the UNC defense. Defense should rule. Maryland / Duke. Just a Sunday game at College Park for these two teams. This is more of a must win for the Terps to cement their NCAA chances. They should get it, as Duke has been suffering mightily from a thin roster due to season ending injuries. It's "wait 'till next year" for the Blue Devils. (And next year will indeed be great for the Dukies.) In the mean time, the Terps should win on Sunday if they play up to their potential. Clemson. Right now at .500 in the league, the improved Tigers should move up in the ACC on Sunday after a win over a tired Wolfpack team. Eddie Radwanski's team could end up in the middle of the ACC if they win at Duke and Miami. Miami. Miami exchanges opponents with FSU this week. Pitt comes down on Thursday possibly to get blown away by the Hurricanes. However, on Sunday, the game is at Syracuse and if Cuse is in a feisty mood following their treatment by the Seminoles they could give the Hurricanes a tough game. However, The Hurricanes should be mighty motivated as a 2-win week would guarantee them a .500 record going into the ACC tournament. And here's the kicker: If they don't make the top 8 in the ACC for the tournament, they'll have that .500 for the NCAA to look at as a bubble team. (Right now their RPI is #46 and if they can manage two wins against the remaining teams or just one win and a tie with one of the Virginia teams, they should have a real shot at the NCAAs) No, cp?
A pretty short limb considering that the schedule has ND playing VT on 2 day's rest after playing the #1 team in the country while VT Will have had 10 days. They haven't gotten their cleats dirty since October 3rd.
If they can stay above 0.500, the win against Notre Dame looks very valuable, if Notre Dame can hold its ranking position. Add a win or tie against one of the Virginia schools and Miami looks great. But, see my response to the next post.
In the past, the Committee declined to give Miami an at large selection when they would have been the 9th team from the ACC. On that occasion, my formula says Miami should have gotten a selection. I don't think the number of teams from a conference should be a factor, but maybe the Committee does. (Of course, the Committee members rotate, so one Committee's approach doesn't necessarily apply in later years.) But, I think the bigger question will be how the ACC's full round robin affects the ACC teams' ratings. In terms of at large selections, I'm going to be watching to see if the ACC teams' rankings start declining as we wend our way through the rest of the season. It's possible we'll see good teams drop beyond bubble territory.
2012 VT finished 9th and was selected, 2011 Miami finished 9th and was also selected...one would think the trend continues this year?
I was meaning to be referring to true "bubble" teams getting selected as the 9th ACC team, but as to 2011 you are right -- Miami was a true bubble team and was the 9th ACC team. So, it can happen. In that case, Miami had the 2nd best record of all the true bubble teams against top 50 teams. It would have been really hard for the Committee not to select it. In 2012 there were 9 ACC teams, but they all were in the area I call "protected" at large selections, meaning they were ranked high enough by the ARPI not to have to go through a full bubble competition. So, it is possible.
Does anyone know if there is a feed or TV for the Notre Dame vs. Virginia game tonight? What is ACCDN? Is that a live feed or kind of like Gametracker? Thanks.
Miami beats Pitt 1-0 UNC beats NC State 3-0 Notre Dame and Virginia in OT 2-2 FSU and Syracuse in OT 0-0 EDIT: FSU beats Syracuse 1-0 in OT
Brian nets home a winner in 2OT as Virginia beat Notre Dame 3-2. Virginia leads league with record of 7-0-0. FSU (6-0-2), VaTech (5-1-1), Notre Dame (5-2-1) and UNC (5-2-0) are other teams looking for home games in ACC tournament quarterfinals.
Virginia 3:2 Notre Dame 2OT Easy schedule? Luck? Gimme a break, Cavs are playing the most beautiful game in college soccer*, sometimes it's almost irritating how every time they try to get the ball on the ground and provide their technical passing game. It's fantastic! They are so skilled that their one-touch short passes look almost cheeky, they acting like there were no opponents in front of them. And Morgan Brian is not remotely one man show for this team - Doniak and Colaprico are twisting those defenders like two little tornados and Douglas goal? Abby Wambach type of goal! Virginia wingers were faster than any ND defender - they're taking them one on one with big smile on their faces. Tough weather was the cause Notre Dame were not outscored heavily in this game. But they were outclassed for sure. 13-0-0 Go Cavs, you are simply amazing! * and yes, I've seen UNC playing