Given that many of the traditional powers in African football are struggling, do you think any African countries will make it out of the group stages? Ghana was the only one in 2006 & 2010, but even they are now starting to struggle, having failed to make the Finals of the ANC in either 2012 or 2013 despite being co-favorites with the Ivory Coast. Likewise, the stars of the Ivory Coast are starting to get old and may be past their prime by 2014. After that, it's a bunch of struggling traditional powers (Egypt, Cameroon, South Africa, Tunisia, Morocco, etc.) and a bunch of up and coming unproven teams (Mali, Zambia, Burkina Faso), and a newly resurgent Nigeria. Thoughts?
Going to be tough when you think of the kind of teams that will likely be in their group: one seeded team, one non-seeded UEFA team and one AFC or CONCACAF team. So if you assume the seeded team will probably advance, that leaves one spot for 3 teams. Even Nigeria or Ghana are not really better than most of those teams in the other 2 unseeded pots, so they would likely only have a 33% chance even IF they avoid the tougher teams (ie, Mexico, Japan, Belgium). The CAF WC qualifying format also means it is quite possible that one of the top African teams won't even qualify for Brazil 2014.
the Afrikan nationas cup is probably one of the weirdest tournaments out there. Egypt has won that tournament 3 times in 2006, 2008 and 2010 and did not even make it to the world cup. how do you explain that?? i think ghana is the best team out of the african nations - they have the best tactics and organization. if michael essien does eventually return, ghana can make a legit run for the semi's nigeria seems like they can be competitive too - especially since there are many players out there who are mainstream and didn't even represent nigera in the ANC.... but like BocaFan says, a lot of it has to do with the draw and who faces who in the knockout rounds...
It's partly explained by the fact that there is not a big drop in quality from the top CAF Team to #6 (I use 6 because 5 teams qualify for the World cup). No other region has that much parity.
They also didn't make the finals in 2006. And they haven't won since 1982. Despite that they have a great track record at the World Cup. Also Ghana took a very inexperienced side and experimented a lot, missing out key players like Essien (who promised to come back to the team), Muntari (due to injury), Annan (injury), Andre Ayew (unclear issues) and possibly also KPB. These players have been the backbone for Ghana is the past few years and I would be surprised if they don't return to the team. Annan especially is indispensable in his purely destructive role - they really missed him at the tournament. Drogba is getting old. Yes, a lot of the key players probably won't survive to 2014, but up front they have Seydou Doumbia, Lacina Traore and Wilfried Bony, all great replacements for Drogba. From their current squad only Drogba, Zokora and Barry will be past their prime. If you look at their midfield and attack it actually pretty young. The main issue are a) will they get a GOD again, b) will they manage to work as a team? Their key issue remain defence. Still not enough quality there. Midfield and attack they are fine and dandy. You forget Senegal. Mali is a solid well organised team. Cameroon have the players to be amongst Africa's best. The federation however has been their bane. Nigeria against Cote d'Ivoire and Mali looked like a world class team. Could really surprise and achieve at the World Cup. Their first test is the Confed Cup... Ghana, Cote d'Ivoire and Nigeria seem great bets for progressing from their group stage. That said remember that Africa has a ridiculous qualification phase where it is very likely for match ups like Ghana vs Egypt. So who the hell knows what team will actually make it?
Caf is an intestesting federation. Rather than having a small number of teams who are constantly the elite of the continent (like bra/arg in south america), you have like 15 to 20 teams who are constantly shifting. The confederation is unpredictable and any team could spend time as both the continent's elite and second rate sides over the span of a few shorts years. There has been a trend since the eighties that one african side emerges as a real force in each world cup and you never can tell who it will be. Everyone was looking at cameroon in 2002 but senegal ended up reaching the final 8. Everyone was wondering if ivory coast would survive the group stage in the last 2 cups, only for ghana to produce some surprises. So yea, no question african will be represented in the last 16 in brazil, but its almost impossile to tell who it will be. Ivory coast, nigeria, zambia, ghana, egypt have all had strong showings in the past 4 years and are capable of reach the last 16...or they could all fail to qualify. But someone will do it
Despite all the talk of Africa underperforming I think its important to note that since 1986 one African team has progressed to the second round. That run probably should have started in 1982, but both Algeria and Cameroon got %$#ewed in their respective groups, with the teams that benefitted from this ending up in positions 1, 2 and 3.
egypt was a team that intrigued me a lot since 2006, they won 3 ANC's yet couldn't qualify for the 2010 world cup - i dont get it...it's not like Greece in 2004 who won the euro's and couldn't qualify for the 2006 WC or Colombia who won a watered down 2001 copa america and couldn't qualify for 2002 WC. egypt won 3 consecutive ANC's!!! anyone who follows african football closely (outside of reading espn scores) please explain to me what was the story with egypt between 2006 and 2010? thanks!
The best explanation is pretty simple: Egypt under Shehata was a tournament team. They had superior pre-tournament preparation as most players were Egypt based and mostly from 2 Egyptian club sides (also Shehata had the best tactical setup). In a tournament that kind of advantage made Egypt perforn above the rest (since other teams consisted of players taken out of club competitions). During a prolonged qualification this advantage is no longer there. Lately the suspension of the league has further lowered the teams capacity to achieve. Hence the failure to qualify for two consequent ACONs. Also: 1) Home advantage in Africa should never be underestimated. 2) Egypt was pretty unlucky in 2006 and 2010 WC qualification. In 2006 they had a WC qualification group with the up-and-coming Cote d'Ivoire side and a still dominant Cameroonian team. In 2010 they played against their arch-rivals Algeria, so that evolved into a blood feud. If they had been in any other group chances are they would have qualified.
that makes sense - thanks for the clarification. i remember the algeria WCQ's prior to 2010. i was pulling for egypt but algeria went through. i saw algeria play live in south africa against england. that could have been egypt!!
Actually a shame. Algeria just upped their game against Egypt, but played the world cup with focus on not losing. Egypt I guarantee you would have gone out there to win, not play as timidly as Algeria did against England (that was a terrible game!!!)
i was in cape town for that game - the mood before the game was the amazing - people were amped up and ready for a fun night. as the game progressed - everyone got angrier and frustrated and after the game - it was the least amount of fun of out any night of the world cup - which says alot b/c i was in joburg for 3 nights and those nights were more fun than the post algeria-england game. you are correct - algeria played against england not looking to lose which is why the game ended up 0-0. oh well!
It's all too early to talk about right now because there is no idea who will qualify with the way African qualifiers are set up, but hopefully the best teams can make it. Nigeria, Ghana (if they call their best players), Egypt, Ivory Coast, and probably Senegal would be an ideal representation for CAF in Brazil. I think surely one of those 5 would be able to progress beyond the group stage, but it would be tough indeed. Nigeria aside, the rest can do much better than displayed in the recent ACN. A lot of teams didn't call up their best players, played on some awful pitches, and didn't produce good football. It really sucks watching the likes of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso at tournaments, they don't really push for the win like others do and it's been the case for a long time.
Did you watch them play at the ACON? I agree Mali and the likes of Niger, but Burkina Faso tried their best to win games and fight for goals. Plus with Pitroipa, Traore, Kabore, Bakary Kone and a couple other less known players like Abdou Razack Traore they actually have a competitive team. I agree however that out of the African teams only Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Ghana, Egypt, possibly Senegal, Tunisia and Cameroon (if they manage to miraculously get their act together) would play with the intent to win (given the right coach, not those terrible Goran Erikson type losers that took certain African countries to the World Cup in 2010) and progress. Watching 2006 was painful because the likes of Togo or Angola just came to not make fools of themselves. I would have also said a Taarabt-led Morocco, but they look absolute deadringers for not making the World Cup given they look doomed by being in a gropu with Cote d'Ivoire.
personally I think african teams are overrated, so I guess there will be Europeans, Americans and Asians in play-offs.
With Zambia messing up Ghana is back from the brink. Cote d'Ivoire is as good as a winner in her group. Cameroon blast back with Eto'o returning and scoring a brace. Same old, same old in Africa? That said... Mali and Congo dominating their groups and look set for the final qualification phase.
Does anybody actually rate African teams? Because in the last World Cup,Ghana apart they were shockingly bad.No creativity,poor organization,poor defending etc.South Africa,Cameron,Algeria and Ivory Coast were all poor teams and never looked like progressing from their group.Even Ghana were overrated,they scored no goals from open play in the group stages(relying on penalties foolishly given away by the opposition),they struggled against 10 men Austrailia etc A massive lack of creativity in that team,which seems to be African teams main problem. I am very disappointed with Africans progression in football over the last 20 years,I thought they would have pushed on by now but the organization is to poor for any kind of consistent development.I rate the Asian teams higher,teams like South Korea and Japan are good and most importantly they are consistent,year in year out you know what to expect.