MLS Cup Predictions?

Dude I'm an Earthquake believer. I was one of the only ones in the preseason thread that picked them to make the playoffs. I rated them as high as 3rd in the West when almost nobody had them in the top 5.

The difference is that this SJ group hasn't been in the playoff situation ... in other words they're still unproven in that loser go home environment. L.A. is not. LA has the recent playoff and Champions League experience to draw from. Also in a tightly contested playoff game that's tied going into the final stretch I will put my money on the personal experience and class of guys like Beckham, Donovan and Keane who have been to World Cups compared to Gordon and Lenhart.

Just a point of view ... of course anything can happen on the pitch ... especially with MLS refs

 

Doesnt worry me in the slightest. We lead late? Chances are the other team is dead. You lead late? Youll have a hard time getting a draw, let alone a win. You can never count SJ out, but their opponents dont have that luxury.

Ok, ignoring the elephant in the room, look at who LA has beat during their stretch, then look what has happened to them when they went against a top team. They are 1-6-0 against the other real Western playoff contenders (but have 2 more games).

LA can absolutely maul the weaker teams in the league, but put them against a team that wont collapse and can fight back and they don't do so well.

 

This LA team is almost identical to the team that won the cup 10 months ago ... Just saying ... They do have some track record of winning the tough games.

 

I actually see this team as being very different in tone and temperament. The LA team that won the cup was willing to get a 1 goal lead, and then try to grind it out on the counter. This year LA doesnt have confidence in their defense, dont put the same defensive work rate, and therefore cant and dont employ the same strategy. This LA team is much more open in how they play, score more goals, but concede a lot more goals as a result.

I think part of the story is the injuries on the back line have changed how they have seen themselves, but I think the other part is that they no longer have the MLS cup monkey hanging over their heads. I dont think they have the hunger to play the same style of soccer this year.

And last years LA team didnt have to face this years San Jose team. I think of a worse team to try to bunker against in league history.

 

Updated for Week #31, differences are highlighted in RED, Sporting Kansas City are the new "likely winners" now:

Eastern Conference:​

​

Play-in:​

4.New York vs. 5.Houston (Season Series: New York 1-0, 2-0 Houston @ home; New York advance)​

​

Conference Semis:​

1.Kansas City vs. 4.New York (Season Series: 1-1, 2-0, Next Game on Oct-20; Kansas City advance)​

2.Chicago vs. 3.D.C. United (Season Series: 2-4, Next Game on Oct-27; D.C. United advance)​

​

Conference Final:​

1.Kansas City vs. 3.D.C. United (Season Series: 1-0, 2-1; Kansas City to MLS Cup Final)​

​

​

Western Conference:​

​

Play-in:​

4.L.A. vs. 5.Vancouver (Season Series: L.A. 3-0, 2-0 V.W. @ home; L.A. advance)​

​

Conference Semis:​

1.San Jose vs. 4.L.A. (Season Series: 3-2, 4-3, Next Game on Oct-21; San Jose advance)​

2.R.S.L. vs. 3.Seattle (Season Series: 1-0, 0-0, Next Game on Oct-17; R.S.L. advance)​

​

Conference Final:​

1.San Jose vs. 2.RSL (Season Series: 3-1, 2-1, 5-0; San Jose to MLS Cup Final)​

​

​

MLS Cup 2012:​

San Jose vs. Kansas City (Season Series: 1-2; Kansas City win MLS Cup!!)​

​

​

​

​

 

If only KC can convince the Quakes to play them as their 3rd game in 8 days again...

 

In KC without Wondo and Lenhart.

 

And a ball boy wasting time at the end.

 

Touche'.

 

Nobody wants to try yourself as an MLS blogger? At one of the biggest Ukraine's sport resources a few people are in process of creating a community of MLS fans, and if smb has a time and willing, U can write on whatever themes, we'll translate it into Ukrainian, of course with your sign as an author. It would be a column just like " MLS from a point of view of native American ". If smb is interested, list me on keysatan@gmail.com.

 

Sounds like a plan! How do we make this happen?

 

Updated for Week #32 (Oct-21), differences are highlighted in RED, Sporting Kansas City remain the "likely winners" for now:

Eastern Conference:​

​

Play-in:​

4.New York vs. 5.Houston (Season Series: New York 1-0, 2-0 Houston @ home; New York advance)​

​

Conference Semis:​

1.Kansas City vs. 4.New York (Season Series: 1-1, 2-0, 0-0; Kansas City advance)​

2.D.C. United vs. 3.Chicago (Season Series: 4-2, Next Game on Oct-27; D.C. United advance)​

​

Conference Final:​

1.Kansas City vs. 3.D.C. United (Season Series: 1-0, 2-1; Kansas City to MLS Cup Final)​

​

​

Western Conference:​

​

Play-in:​

4.L.A. vs. 5.Vancouver (Season Series: L.A. 3-0, 2-0 V.W. @ home; L.A. advance)​

​

Conference Semis:​

1.San Jose vs. 4.L.A. (Season Series: 3-2, 4-3, 2-2; San Jose advance)​

2.Seattle vs. 3.R.S.L. (Season Series: 0-1, 0-0, 0-0; R.S.L. advance)​

​

Conference Final:​

1.San Jose vs. 2.RSL (Season Series: 3-1, 2-1, 5-0; San Jose to MLS Cup Final)​

​

​

MLS Cup Final 2012:​

San Jose vs. Kansas City (Season Series: 1-2; Kansas City win MLS Cup!!)​

​

​

​

 

By the way, since we're on this, have gone through several past seasons to ascertain the accuracies of predicting the eventual MLS Cup Winners based on Regular Season Series Results.

Based on the past 2 seasons so far, the answer seemed to be a resounding NO, as even the projected cup finalists were entirely different from the actual ones.

Nevertheless, the exercise was quite fun though. More past seasons (2009 & before) to come...

===================================================================

Season 2011:

Wildcard Round:

• FC Dallas (WC1) vs. New York Red Bulls (WC4), Season Series @ home: 0-1; New York advanced. (same as actual)
• Colorado Rapids (WC2) vs. Columbus Crew (WC3), Season Series @ home: 2-0; Colorado advanced. (same as actual)

Conf Semi:
East:

• Sporting Kansas City (1E) vs. Colorado Rapids (WC2), Season Series: 1-1, 1-1; Kansas City advanced thru PK 4-3. (same as actual)
• Houston Dynamo (2E) vs. Philadelphia Union (3E), Season Series: 0-1, 1-1; Philadelphia advanced!! (different from actual)

West:

• LA Galaxy (1W) vs. New York Red Bulls (4W), Season Series: 1-1, 0-2; New York advanced!! (different from actual)
• Seattle Sounders FC (2W) vs. Real Salt Lake (3W), Season Series: 1-2, 2-1; Seattle advanced thru PK 6-5!! (different from actual)

Conf Final:

• East: Philadelphia Union (3E) vs. Colorado Rapids (WC2), Season Series @ home: 1-2; Colorado advanced!! (different from actual)
• West: Seattle Sounders FC (2W) vs. New York Red Bulls (4W), Season Series @ home: 4-2; Seattle advacnced!! (different from actual)

MLS Cup Final:

• Seattle Sounders FC (2W) vs. Colorado Rapids (WC2), Season Series: 4-3, 1-0; Seattle would have won the MLS Cup!! (different from actual)

​

===================================================================

Season 2010:

Conf Semi:
East:

• New York Red Bulls (1E) vs. San Jose Earthquakes (4E), Season Series: 2-0, 0-4, San Jose advanced. (same as actual)
• Columbus Crew (2E) vs. Colorado Rapids (3E), Season Series: 3-1, 0-1, Columbus advanced!! (different from actual)

West:

• Los Angeles Galaxy (1W) vs. Seattle Sounders FC (4W), Season Series: 0-4, 1-3, L.A. advanced. (same as actual)
• Real Salt Lake (2W) vs. FC Dallas (3W), Season Series: Season Series: 2-0, 0-2, Dallas advanced thru PK 8-3. (same as actual)

Conf Final:

• East: Columbus Crew (2E) vs. San Jose Earthquakes (4E), Season Series @ home: 0-0 (away 2-2), Columbus advanced thru PK 5-3!! (different from actual)
• West: Los Angeles Galaxy (1W) vs. FC Dallas (3W), Season Series @ home: 2-1, L.A. advanced!! (different from actual)

MLS Cup Final:

• Los Angeles Galaxy (1W) vs. Columbus Crew (2E), Season Series: 3-1, 2-0; L.A. would have won the MLS Cup!! (different from actual)

​

 

Sporting vs Seattle in the MLS Cup. Ricardo Salazar get the middle, Gspurning takes an extra step in PK's and gets called for it, Sporting wins, and Seattle riots.

 

Went through 3 more earlier seasons, all Cup Winners were different as well, though it did predicted 2 finalists correctly for 2008 (CLB. & N.Y.) and spotted 1 finalist for 2007 (Houston)...

More later...

===================================================================

Season 2009:

Conf Semi:
East:

• Columbus Crew (1E) vs. Real Salt Lake (4E), Regular Season Series: 3-1, 1-4; Real Salt Lake advanced. (same as actual)
• Chicago Fire (2E) vs. New England Revolution (3E), Regular Season Series: 1-1, 0-0; New England Revolution advanced thru PK 5-4!! (different from actual)

West:

• Los Angeles Galaxy (1W) vs. Chivas USA (4W), Regular Season Series: 0-0, 1-0, 1-0; Los Angeles Galaxy advanced. (same as actual)
• Houston Dynamo (2W) vs. Seattle Sounders FC (3W), Regular Season Series: 1-1, 1-2; Seattle Sounders advanced!! (different from actual)

Conf Final:

• East: New England Revolution (3E) vs. Real Salt Lake (4E), Regular Season Series @ home: 3-1; New England Revolution advanced!! (different from actual)
• West: Los Angeles Galaxy (1W) vs. Seattle Sounders FC (3W), Regular Season Series @ home: 0-2; Seattle Sounders advanced!! (different from actual)

MLS Cup Final:

• Seattle Sounders FC (3W) vs. New England Revolution (3E), Regular Season Series: 0-1, 1-2; New England Revolution would have won the MLS Cup!! (different from actual)

​

===================================================================

Season 2008:

Conf Semi:
East:

• Columbus Crew (1E) vs. Kansas City Wizards (4E), Regular Season Series: 2-1, 3-3, 3-0; Columbus Crew advanced. (same as actual)
• Chicago Fire (2E) vs. New England Revolution (3E), Regular Season Series: 4-0, 3-0, 2-1; Chicago Fire advanced. (same as actual)

West:

• Houston Dynamo (1W) vs. New York Red Bulls (4W), Regular Season Series: 1-0, 0-3; New York Red Bulls advanced. (same as actual)
• Chivas USA (2W) vs. Real Salt Lake (3W), Regular Season Series: 3-1, 0-1, 1-0; Chivas USA advanced!! (different from actual)

Conf Final:

• East: Columbus Crew (1E) vs. Chicago Fire (2E), Regular Season Series @ home: 2-2 (away 2-2 too, PK 4-4 as well); Columbus Crew advanced on higher GS in Regular Season. (same as actual)
• West: Chivas USA (2W) vs. New York Red Bulls (4W), Regular Season Series @ home: 1-1 (away 0-1); New York Red Bulls advanced. (same as actual)

MLS Cup Final:

• Columbus Crew (1E) vs. New York Red Bulls (4W), Regular Season Series: 3-1, 0-2, 1-3;
  New York Red Bulls would have won the MLS Cup!! (different from actual)

​

===================================================================

Season 2007:

Conf Semi:
East:

• D.C. United (1E) vs. Chicago Fire (4E), Regular Season Series: 3-1, 0-0, 1-1; D.C. United advanced!! (different from actual)
• New England Revolution (2E) vs. New York Red Bulls (3E), Regular Season Series: 2-1, 1-0; New England Revolution advanced. (same as actual)

West:

• Chivas USA (1W) vs. Kansas City Wizards (5E), Regular Season Series: 2-1, 2-3; Chivas USA thru PK 3-2!! (different from actual)
• Houston Dynamo (2W) vs. FC Dallas (3W), Regular Season Series: 2-1, 1-0, 0-0, 3-0; Houston Dynamo advanced. (same as actual)

Conf Final:

• East: D.C. United (1E) vs. New England Revolution (2E), Regular Season Series @ home: 1-1, 4-2; D.C. United advanced!! (different from actual)
• West: Chivas USA (1W) vs. Houston Dynamo (2W), Regular Season Series @ home: 0-0 (away 0-1, 0-4); Houston Dynamo advanced. (same as actual)

MLS Cup Final:

• D.C. United (1E) vs. Houston Dynamo (2W), Regular Season Series: 2-1, 0-1 (PK 6-2);
  D.C. United would have won the MLS Cup!! (different from actual)

​

 

Ah, good catch, my bad! Reworked as below...

Season 2011:

Wildcard Round:

• FC Dallas (WC1) vs. New York Red Bulls (WC4), Season Series @ home: 0-1; New York advanced. (same as actual)
• Colorado Rapids (WC2) vs. Columbus Crew (WC3), Season Series @ home: 2-0; Colorado advanced. (same as actual)

Conf Semi:
East:

• Sporting Kansas City (1E) vs. Colorado Rapids (WC2), Season Series: 1-1, 1-1; Kansas City advanced thru PK 4-3. (same as actual)
• Houston Dynamo (2E) vs. Philadelphia Union (3E), Season Series: 0-1, 1-1; Philadelphia advanced!! (different from actual)

West:

• LA Galaxy (1W) vs. New York Red Bulls (4W), Season Series: 1-1, 0-2; New York advanced!! (different from actual)
• Seattle Sounders FC (2W) vs. Real Salt Lake (3W), Season Series: 1-2, 2-1; Seattle advanced thru PK 6-5!! (different from actual)

Conf Final:

• East: Sporting Kansas City (1E) vs. Philadelphia Union (3E), Season Series @ home: 1-1 (away 0-0, PK 4-4 as well); Sporting Kansas City advanced on higher GS in Regular Season!! (different from actual)
• West: Seattle Sounders FC (2W) vs. New York Red Bulls (4W), Season Series @ home: 4-2; Seattle advacnced!! (different from actual)

MLS Cup Final:

• Seattle Sounders FC (2W) vs. Sporting Kansas City (1E), Season Series: 1-0, 2-1;
  Seattle Sounders would have won the MLS Cup!! (different from actual)

​

 

MLS Cup Playoffs 2012 Projection by Regular Season Series

Updated after the end of 2012 Regular Season, differences against last week are highlighted in RED, San Jose are now the favorites to hoist MLS Cup 2012:

Eastern Conference:​

Play-in:​

4.Chicago vs. 5.Houston (Season Series: Chicago 3-1 Houston @ home; Chicago advance)​

​

Conference Semis:​

1.Kansas City vs. 4.Chicago (Season Series: 2-0, 0-1, 1-2; Chicago advance)​

2.D.C. United vs. 3.New York (Season Series: 4-1, 2-3, 2-2; D.C. United advance)​

​

Conference Final:​

2.D.C. United vs. 4.Chicago (Season Series: 4-2, 1-1; D.C. United to MLS Cup Final)​

​

Western Conference:​

Play-in:​

4.L.A. vs. 5.Vancouver (Season Series: L.A. 3-0, 2-0 V.W. @ home; L.A. advance)​

​

Conference Semis:​

1.San Jose vs. 4.L.A. (Season Series: 3-2, 4-3, 2-2; San Jose advance)​

2.R.S.L. vs. 3.Seattle(Season Series: 1-0, 0-0, 0-0; R.S.L. advance)​

​

Conference Final:​

1.San Jose vs. 2.RSL (Season Series: 3-1, 2-1, 5-0; San Jose to MLS Cup Final)​

​

MLS Cup Final 2012:​

San Jose vs. D.C. United (Season Series: 5-3; San Jose win MLS Cup!!)​

​

​

​

 

Sporting Kansas City vs LA Galaxy

 

For greater impact from the MLS which would be the best finalists? The Galaxy vs NYRB or do you think that there would be another end with more of an impact than this.

 

define impact

 

I am referring to more hearings on tv, more references to final in the media.