Your problem is you base everything on the numbers you read in the box scores. You don't have the slightest idea what the Kickers or Eagles are thinking or what they're about.
I have a good idea of what the Kickers (primary goal is their academy) and Eagles (primary goal is evangelism) are about. It doesn't mean they will be able to sustain D-III forever. Also, the original post I was responding to was comparing them to D-II teams. I don't think he was paying any regard to what they were about either. At least they have a "what they're about", unlike LA Blues.
Actually, I wasn't comparing them to D2 teams in the way you think. I meant that due to history and geography Wilmington would draw more fans for games against Charlotte, Charleston and Richmond than the D2 teams.
Division 3 Code: 67.4% complete Year Avg Median %<1K %>3k 2005 1692 1433 20.0% 13.3% 2006 1755 1498 16.7% 15.0% 2007 1563 1423 29.9% 6.0% 2008 1550 1592 28.4% 7.5% 2009 1563 1372 31.7% 5.0% 2010 1695 1379 37.5% 20.0% 2011 2299 1650 32.0% 32.0% 2012 2681 1604 33.7% 39.3% Median-33%: 1069 Median+33%: 2139 <MED-33%: 34 / 38.2% >MED+33%: 41 / 46.1% Code: Final Numbers Year Avg Median %<1K %>3k 2005 1680 1457 21.4% 11.9% 2006 1803 1703 14.1% 11.8% 2007 1575 1423 28.1% 6.3% 2008 1614 1629 26.0% 7.3% 2009 1602 1518 31.8% 7.1% 2010 1689 1385 35.1% 17.5% 2011 2269 1449 32.4% 31.0% Didn't have any more luck than anyone else finding out the Antigua (Bradenton) and Harrisburg attendances from this past week. But on the plus side, for those that like to keep the information themselves and follow along with the fun, Dayton Dutch Lions came through for me when I asked them on facebook. Here are their missing attendances: Saturday, May 26, 2012 = 600 Saturday, June 2, 2012 = 820 And, yes, that last one is the same number as they had at their June 9 game against Pittsburgh. Next week: Dayton, Charleston, Pittsburgh, Wilmington, Charlotte, Richmond, and Rochester.
Unlike everybody else, who is guaranteed to be able to sustain DIII forever. What I meant was, you look simply at what you perceive from the outside (mainly attendance, based on the prism of having a team that draws well) and surmise that there's some artificial level of announced box score attendance that is acceptable to you, and which you think is not sustainable. Even though the Eagles have been around for 20 years doing the same thing, and their model very likely could be sustainable long-term because they aren't losing money. But you don't know that.
So jealous of both Wilmington and Charleston's attendance and them being in a regional league. Wilmington would even provide an excuse to go to the beach . Every market is different, but I feel like a lot of teams could learn from Wilmington and Charleston.
Charleston has 20 years of history now. Wilmington not quite that long, but enough to survive a year of hiatus to come back bigger and better than ever.
Division 3 Code: 73.5% complete Year Avg Median %<1K %>3k 2005 1635 1400 21.2% 12.1% 2006 1757 1532 16.7% 13.6% 2007 1548 1422 30.1% 5.5% 2008 1573 1626 26.0% 6.8% 2009 1576 1487 30.3% 4.5% 2010 1666 1326 38.6% 18.2% 2011 2243 1424 33.3% 30.5% 2012 2669 1604 33.0% 38.1% Median-33%: 1069 Median+33%: 2139 <MED-33%: 36 / 38.2% >MED+33%: 44 / 46.1% Code: Final Numbers Year Avg Median %<1K %>3k 2005 1680 1457 21.4% 11.9% 2006 1803 1703 14.1% 11.8% 2007 1575 1423 28.1% 6.3% 2008 1614 1629 26.0% 7.3% 2009 1602 1518 31.8% 7.1% 2010 1689 1385 35.1% 17.5% 2011 2269 1449 32.4% 31.0% Apparently a rain-out in Charlotte. Game will be rescheduled some time soon. Pretty much has to be, as we're getting close to the end of the season now, with some teams only having two home games left. These numbers now include the missing games from Dayton and Harrisburg. This week we get: Orlando City (2), Charlotte, Pittsburgh, Rochester, Harrisburg, Richmond, and Dayton.
I've had a hard time sleeping at night not knowing if the Antigua numbers were divisible by 100 - any updates?
Nope. And with two home games having been moved to IMG last week (and who knows what will happen in the next month), I wouldn't expect any updates out of the Barracuda.
Much of an impact on the averages if only a few hundred have been attending and the numbers are not reported? The league is showing some really nice year-to-year growth and before I get too excited I just wanted to make sure things were "apples-to-apples". That's also assuming everything was reported last year.
You always have to take these things with a grain of salt, that's been a constant over time. But ranked by percentage growth in average announced attendance over the same number of home games a year ago: Los Angeles...+68.64% Richmond......+38.89% Rochester.....+37.68% Dayton........+29.20% Orlando.......+25.92% Charleston....+13.81% Wilmington.....+6.74% Harrisburg.....+0.90% Pittsburgh.....-5.73% Charlotte.....-19.30% Antigua.......-58.13% LA has gone from absolute nowhere to just north of nowhere (as has Dayton), but Richmond and Orlando are doing well (Rochester's numbers are in some dispute). Wilmington has a chance to beat last season's average, which was a franchise record, and there's only so much Harrisburg can do with their yard and their budget. Pittsburgh should be helped when their new yard is ready next year, and Charlotte's got other priorities.
What numbers do you have for Orlando, Kenn? My calculations have our year-over-year growth through 9 home matches at 14.4%.
Here's what I have for Orlando: Total: 59610 Average: 6623 Through 9 games last season: Total: 52064 Average: 5785 That matches Orlando Ray's number: 14.49% ...assuming I did my math right. OK. Here's more details. First 9 matches, 2011: 7933 7279 5876 4517 4241 5943 6923 4594 4758 and I double-checked that with the file you sent me. This year's numbers: 8421 7899 6722 7231 6821 5602 6148 3506 7260
Ah, that must have been through eight. Yeah, it was through eight. My bad. 4/09/2011...FC New York...............7,933 4/22/2011...Puerto Rico United........7,279 5/14/2011...Pittsburgh Riverhounds....5,876 5/25/2011...Richmond Kickers..........4,517 6/02/2011...Charlotte Eagles..........4,241 6/10/2011...Antigua Barracuda FC......5,943 6/18/2011...Wilmington Hammerheads....6,923 7/08/2011...Dayton Dutch Lions........4,594 7/16/2011...Rochester Rhinos..........4,758 But we disagree slightly on this year. I have 8,421 - 7,899 - 6,722 - 7,231 - 6,821 - 5,602 - 6,148 - 3,506 and 7,216. It's not uncommon for me to transpose two numbers, so let me know.
My typo. I did a mental/verbal transposition, turning 16 into 60 on the last attendance. Funny, that information isn't on the match report. But you have it, and I see that Orlando Rays reported it earlier in the thread. It must've come from somewhere reliable. I've updated my spreadsheet.
Hmmm. Maybe I should *not* have changed my number. Orlando City has 7260 on their team website match report (click the 'Recap' tab).