2012 Playoff & Supporter Shield Race/Discussion About Other Teams [R]

Is it too late to switch conferences?

My predictions for top five in the West:

Galaxy
Vancouver
RSL
Seattle
Rapids (This could be anybody's spot, including ours, but I'll predict that Pareja will light a fire under Colorado.)

Top five in the East:

Red Bulls
Sporting KC
DCU
Toronto
Houston (I hope New England squeaks in ahead of them, but knowing Kinnear he'll have things figured out by the final stretch.)

 

Am I to take it you have a dissenting opinion?

 

Vancouver second? That is quite the statement. They had 28 points last year and have to play RSL, FCD, Seattle, LA and Portland three times. Vancouver didn't win a road game last year.

To finish second, they'd need to at least double that point total. Not saying they wont be improved, they clearly are, but enough to basically double their point total from last year?

 

It would be an amazing turnaround, but I think it's within reach, as their preseason form shows (I know, there are plenty examples of preseason success followed by regular season failure). Hassli and Le Toux could both be MVP/Golden Boot contenders. They have an intriguing DP arriving midseason. I think RSL will get off to a slow start and LA too, so the points gap at the top should stay fairly narrow for a long time. Vancouver looks to me like a team built to go the distance.

 

I've seen nothing to suggest that Vancouver has any sort of a defense that is competent. Yes they shut out everyone in the Disney Cup, but I believe 3 of their 4 games were against the reserve teams of the MLS sides...they just happened to hit that way.

 

Wouldn't it be just as "silly" to say we will but Portland and San Jose won't? As I said, any team could find themselves in the top five, including us, but it's fun to make predictions anyway. Sorry if my guess doesn't sit well with your homerism.

True, Vancouver's defense still needs testing. LA's having issues there too, and RSL doesn't have everyone back from injury, do they? Portland and Seattle both put most of their offseason energies into bolstering their attack, with Boyd and EJ, respectively. (Though Portland has been stingy with goals all preseason.) Then there's the new, untested-in-MLS keeper in Seattle. For all the talk in the media about how strong the west is, I think it could be a goal-fest due to so many strong offenses and uncertain defenses. On paper, anyway.

 

My prediction for the West is:

Galaxy
Seattle
FCD
RSL
Portland
Colorado
Vancouver
San Jose
Chivas

FCD has a lot of "ifs." If Ferreira comes back healthy and strong, if Blas Perez is the great MLS forward we think he can be, if Castillo takes the "next step," if Brek Shea isn't sold mid-season, if Wiedeman proves a valuable winger/forward off the bench, if we stay injury free in the attacking positions.............we can challenge for the Supporter's Shield. [I REALLY like our keeping and defensive situation in terms of both quality and depth.] If we hit on some of those we'll be top 5, which is where I'd put us.

I'm not drinking the kool-aid on Vancouver. Boomer's exactly right in my view. Their pre-season has been very misleading. Don't get me wrong. They'll be better than last year, and can challenge for a playoff position. I just don't see them going from absolute disaster last season to 2nd best in the West based on their changes. I just prefer teams to be built from the back. (this is what Marsch has been doing in Montreal) Vancouver hasn't fixed their huge defensive problems in the off-season. Unless people think an over-the-hill Korean fullback is the answer.

[It should be noted that Rangers today may outright release Carlos Bocanegra. One of the teams heavily linked to him in some quarters has been Vancouver. Edit: That now appears to have been delayed till Tuesday. Bedoya may also be cut.]

 

Final pre-season power rankings have Vancouver fourth in the West, behind the now-traditional trifecta of LA, SEA, and RSL: http://www.mlssoccer.com/news/article/2012/03/06/power-rankings-whos-top-team-first-kick

 

What that means is you're not the only one to put WAY too much emphasis on pre-season results.

I can see MAYBE putting either KC or Houston ahead of Dallas, but not both, and sure as hell not both PLUS Vancouver PLUS Portland PLUS San JOSE - all in front of NY and Chicago to boot. Dallas *eleventh*?!?!?!?!

Last year, this team had a hole at forward. This year, they have a hole at right mid until Castillo can show he can be mature for a whole season. I'll take that as a step forward - certainly at worst NOT a step back, let alone dropping from fourth to eleventh.

More evidence that outside a very small few - most of which seem to be in Dallas of all places - most "journalists" that cover MLS are absolutely clueless.

 

LA

then a group of Seattle, RSL, Dallas and maybe KC

then a group of Houston, DC, Columbus, TFC, Chicago, NY, Colorado

then a group of Philadelphia, Portland, New England, Vancouver (I'll definitely admit they made moves that should help them this season)

then the rest - San Jose, Chivas USA, Montreal

 

Actually if they were putting too much emphasis on preseason results they would have ranked LA substantially lower and Portland a bit higher. They may, on the other hand, put too much emphasis on the previous season's performance, which is what makes their willingness to take a chance on Vancouver that much more meaningful.

 

Like you said, anything can happen in MLS.

 

Dallas finished fourth in MLS in points last year without Ferreira or a decent starting forward for the second half of the season while playing two games a week.

Don't see where the 11th comes from. Great bulletin board material.

 

Possibility that with Ranger's problems Bocanegra could be let go. If he returns to MLS Vancouver is at the top of the list to sign him. DeMerit and Bocanegra would be a very good pairing. Of course Paroothead didn't know this when he made his HSO.

 

I think the biggest thing about the Vancouver bit is that MLS is no longer a league where you can go from bottom to top in one off season. You can move up a tier or two, but not from bottom three to top four.

 

With all the power ranking discussions I found this amusing. FIFA 12 predicts FCD 3rd in the West, 50 points.

http://goal.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/08/fifa-12-predicts-m-l-s-12/?smid=tw-nytimesgoal&seid=auto