Alert: NSC Minnesota Stars @ Carolina RailHawks, Wed Aug 17, 7 pm

We haven't lost at home since the opener, but MN's one of three teams to beat us so far and the only team we haven't beaten yet this season. It's gonna be a tough one.

 

I hope someone out there can give me some perspective. I'm a regular Hawks fan, been going to games sporadically since the team started. But last night’s game was my first of the regular season. I really expected to see a much better team considering their record. I know they have cooled off a bit since the first half of the season, and that Rusin left and now Rennie is gonna be gone after this season. But honestly, the Hawks didn't impress me at all last night.

I will say that the Hawks clearly had superior players on the field. Particularly on offense I saw brief glimpses of real talent from Barbara, Campos, and Zimmerman. But it really looked like they thought their inflated egos were going to win the game for them, especially Barbara. He made maybe 3 to 6 great plays and could have easily scored (except for an excellent stop by the keeper), maybe a dozen more above average plays. Outside of that there was an incredible amount of walking around and wild gesticulations of frustration with himself, his team mates, and the ref (whose calls were general pretty good).

Even though they had less talent Minnesota played well and could have easily won with a tad more luck. If not for Low's goal line desperation clearance in the first few minutes the Hawks would have played the whole game from behind (or maybe it would have woken them up to play to their potential instead).

Way too many long balls and errant passes, one give away after another. Defense was sort of on again off again. Sometimes the defense looked pretty good. Other times it looked like only half of the team had any commitment to getting back and marking up.

On the positive side Watson, Steele, Knighton, and Low all had average or above games. Steele was probably the best player on the field last night and played both ends pretty well. Elenio and Farber played well off the bench. Except for the aforementioned moments of brilliance, most everyone else was forgettable or below average.

 

(Sorry for the double post, I cant seem to take it back)
I hope someone out there can give me some perspective. I'm a regular Hawks fan, been going to games sporadically since the team started. But last night’s game was my first of the regular season. I really expected to see a much better team considering their record. I know they have cooled off a bit since the first half of the season, and that Rusin left and now Rennie is gonna be gone after this season. But honestly, the Hawks didn't impress me at all last night.

I will say that the Hawks clearly had superior players on the field. Particularly on offense I saw brief glimpses of real talent from Barbara, Campos, and Zimmerman. But it really looked like they thought their inflated egos were going to win the game for them, especially Barbara. He made maybe 3 to 6 great plays and could have easily scored (but for an excellent save by Min.'s keeper), maybe a dozen more above average plays. Outside of that there was an incredible amount of walking around and wild gesticulations of frustration with himself, his team mates, and the ref (whose calls were general pretty good).

Even though they had less talent Minnesota played well and could have easily won with a tad more luck. If not for Low's goal line desperation clearance in the first few minutes the Hawks would have played the whole game from behind (or maybe it would have woken them up to play to their potential instead).

Way too many long balls and errant passes, one give away after another. Defense was sort of on again off again. Sometimes the defense looked pretty good. Other times it looked like only half of the team had any commitment to getting back and marking up.

On the positive side Watson, Steele, Knighton, and Low all had average or above games. Steele was probably the best player on the field last night and played both ends pretty well. Elenio and Farber played well off the bench. Except for the aforementioned moments of brilliance, most everyone else was forgettable or below average.

 

I think last night was uglier than our earlier games. For our hot streak, we played the long ball along with possession play, and tonight we felt more one dimensional. We've also gotten thin on the defensive side, and hopefully add depth there so McManus or Elenio can play their natural position. Hopefully these last 3 results can be turned around before playoffs.

 

Last night it seemed like the midfield, Nurse especially, were giving the ball away very cheaply. We counted 5 no-look passes of his that went directly to a Stars player. Steele likes to play one-touch balls when teammates aren't expecting it or are not in good positions to make runs. Everybody just looked out of sync. It looked like a different team. Can't explain it.

 

I can't help but to be worried about our title hopes now. Ever since the Rusin transfer, the team hasn't looked nearly the same.

Don't look now, but if PRI win again, we're only 4 points up.

 

Except that, as they get their next chance to earn three points, so do we. Against Miami. At home. Yes, we lost to them at Lockhart, but they're below Minnesota in both points standing and predictively useful things like ratio of goals scored to allowed - oh, and unlike the Stars, we've already beaten the Strikers this season.

Our lead's only seven points, but I expect it to stay at seven points. (My NASL Guru picks for the relevant matches: 2-1 for Tampa Bay (albeit with little confidence - I'm estimating a 29% chance for Puerto Rico to win, 24% for the draw) and 1-0 for Carolina (with a 59% probability on the full 3 points, although that part doesn't pay enough attention to what's happened without Brad Rusin so the picture isn't really quite as rosy as a 60% win sounds).

On sportsclubstats.com, they're currently showing a 93% chance for Carolina to finish in first place, 7% for Puerto Rico - and 0% of Carolina not getting a bye to semifinals. It also says we should be cheering for Tampa Bay over Puerto Rico on Saturday, unsurprisingly, and of course for Edmonton in both their games at PR the week after. (In the FCE @ PRI matches, the Juggle the Numbers algorithms currently say there's a 55% chance for Puerto Rico to win, 21% for Edmonton, and 24% for the draw.)

We will get our bye to the semifinals. We will very probably do so with a first seed, thus getting the easier of the two semifinal opponents who didn't. And we will probably face Puerto Rico for the championships again - but this time, I expect us to win. (JtN algorithm's current probabilities for a home-and-away series decided on aggregate goals, which IIRC is the correct format for the finals again, if it's between the two orange teams: CAR 45%, PRI 37%, draw 18%.) If Puerto Rico falls along the way, we expect to take on probable 3rd seed Tampa Bay or even probable 6th seed FC Edmonton for the final; those upsets would make our quest for the hardware even easier. (Unfortunately, our expected semifinal opponents are likely 4th-seed Minnesota, but they're neck and neck with FTL for projected final standings - and whichever one does wind up being number 5 could easily advance on the upset anyhow.)

 

Thanks Fan,

I can see the long ball approach working since Campos and Barbara do hold the ball very well, even against two defenders. Hopefully the rest of the problems will get ironed out in the next few games and the Hawks will be firing on all cylinders again.

 

Yep, you saw what I saw. I hope the hawks can get their short game working better to balance with the longball stuff (nothing personal). As people have pointed out the Stars seem to be a tough team for the Hawks to play. Looks like I caught them on a bad night. I hope to catch more games this season and see the hawks win the championship. Might not get this close again the way this league works.

 

Did anyone else notice Salieu Bundu is back from his loan to Charlotte? He might sub in for one of the forwards if we aren't clicking.

 

I was wondering if they have subconsciously become a little complacent... up until this streak of below average games they had a huge lead in points. Maybe, just maybe, they backed off just enough to have regressed a little. I'm no sports psychologist, but I imagine it would be difficult to maintain the same 110% effort with such a huge lead.... intentionally or not.

Now that the Islanders are creeping up the standings, maybe they'll get a fire lit under their @sses again.

 

Thoughts:

A) There were a few moments tonight of infighting as the team was trying to link up, but it appears they're starting to find themselves again.

B) The ref wasn't calling anything. The foul on Barbara, right before he was subbed out, looked especially harsh. Normally he doesn't go down easily.

C) Knighton caught a few lucky breaks as his defenders cleared balls off the line three or four times. He also made some insane stops at point-blank range.

D) They're still not out of the doldrums yet.

 

I wasn't able to see the game, but the defense sounds bad. How did our attack work out?