The cupcake exists, and it's Caribbean

So I've been skimming the occasional post about Mexico's qualification troubles, and while I don't want to pour gas on the fire, I should point out one thing.  Brian Ching is something like 37 years old, and has been cap-tied to the US for over a decade.  So you might as well stop posting "Chingada" and "Chingaron," because he can't help you.  As for what I assume translates as "Ching's mother," well, she's not Mexican, either, so I don't know why you're even bringing that up. We have games coming up next week, too, which will change the picture in ways we can't fathom, but we have learned something.  Here's the current Par Chart - again, keeping track of how well a team wins at home and draws on the road:

United States: +1 Costa Rica: -1 Honduras: -4 Mexico: -4 Panama: -5 Jamaica: -10

This doesn't take into account the game in hand that everyone besides Mexico and Jamaica has, but at least Mexico can't hurt themselves again until the Columbus game.

Jamaica is beyond repair at this point, although you didn't need this chart to tell you that - losing four in a row and winning none out of the first six will usually turn any campaign into a flaming bag of goldfish.  But Jamaica's week and a half was so amazingly poor that they have now qualified as the Hexagonal cupcake.

Which calls for a new chart.  When a team implodes the way Jamaica has, you no longer get credit for beating them anywhere, and you get punished for doing anything except beating them anywhere.  The logic behind this should be clear - Jamaica is handing out points to anyone who wanders by. Jamaica is the only team so far to flat-out lose at home, and they've done it twice so far - to Mexico and the United States.  If you're only getting one when everyone else is getting three, that's just like losing.

The flaw in the logic is if Jamaica turns it around, and makes a furious, glorious comeback.  Give me a wave if you see any sign of that happening.

This is what Jamaica's flailings have done to the Hex:

Costa Rica: -1 United States: -1 Honduras: -4 Mexico: -6 Panama: -7

What's happening in these charts?  Honduras failed to win at home once.  Panama failed to win at home twice.  Mexico you know about.  Win at home.  Don't not win at home.  Do not fail to win at home.  At all costs, under any circumstances, win at home.  Home is where you must win.  Winning on the road is awesome, but winning at home gets you to the next round.  A.B.W.A.H. - Always. Be. Winning. At. Home.

Panama and Mexico are also being punished for leaving points on the table against Jamaica.  You might think that puts a burden on Costa Rica and Honduras to also win at The Office, but Costa Rica and Honduras get the benefit of facing a Jamaica that has pretty much been broken and is playing out the string.  Right now, where would you rather have to get points - Kingston, or Columbus?  The correct answer for Mexico, according to current trends, is Wellington.