So says Sports Club Stats, anyway. There's a mathematical way the Crew don't play games in November, but it didn't happen in a thousand simulations these guys ran.
Hey, aren't these the same guys that game the Earthquakes a 4.7% chance of making the playoffs at the end of July. They are. And, in their defense, even today they're less than an even shot. Here are the current odds, with seven games left for all concerned:
1. Crew: 100% (July 29: 95.2%)
2. Fire: 99.4% (80.3%)
3. Dynamo: 99.2% (60.8%)
4. Revolution: 99.1% (99.0% - stink up the continent for a month, and your playoff chances improve noticeably. Maybe Nicol does know what he's doing?)
5. DC United: 76.8% (62.0%)
6. New York: 76.5% (39.0% - see, you add a few guys in August, and you're good. Right, San Jose?)
7. Salt Lake: 65.9% (70.3% - imagine if they ever won on the road)
8. Chivas USA: 56.0% (62.2% - and this is after Toronto gifted them six points the past two weeks. Well, good enough is good enough, unless....)
9. San Jose: 32.8% (4.7% -...this trend continues. Hm, so one year later Frank figures out how to add players in midseason and win with them? That's just boss.)
10. Colorado: 25.3% (33.3%)
11. Dallas: 18.9% (41.5%)
12. Galaxy: 17.3% (48.6% - gee, who'd have thought not winning for over two months would impact playoff chances)
13. Wizards: 16.7% (51.7%)
14. Toronto: 16.1% (51.4%)
What's worse for Kansas City and Toronto is, they don't even have the "If we were in the weak conference" excuse anymore, because the teams they're tied with only have marginally better chances. Unless you believe that the Wizards and the Tories would have benefited from the softer Western schedule overall, and thus would probably be in third place or better. That will be a great comfort to fans looking up at teams who have all changed coaches in the past month, I'm sure.
The other fun thing about that site is, you can scroll down and see who you should cheer for this weekend. Yes, everyone in America should hope the Crew win the Trillium Cup.