Never tell me the odds

From DuNord, which I'm assuming you've been reading all this time. If not, why not?

A much more sophisticated Power Rankings! system here. Current percentages that your team will make the playoffs:

1. New England, 99.0%
2. Columbus, 95.2%
3. Chicago, 80.3%
4. Salt Lake, 70.3%
5. Chivas USA, 62.2%
6. D.C. United, 62.0%
7. Houston, 60.8%
8. Kansas City, 51.7%
9. Toronto, 51.4%
10. Los Angeles, 48.6%
11. Dallas, 41.5%
12. New York, 39.0%
13. Colorado, 33.3%
14. San Jose, 4.7%

I hate to criticize someone who did a much better job on a project than I did, but this Doesn't Seem Right. It doesn't FEEL like New England has clinched. It doesn't FEEL like San Jose is that royally screwed.

If you look at the site, you can see what teams did to their chances - so much for the theory that one game doesn't make a difference, because Salt Lake and Dallas REALLY helped themselves, Toronto and Los Angeles REALLY screwed themselves. Except...it's MLS! One game doesn't make a difference! We know this in our hearts!

Slightly more rationally...wait, the Tories went into Rice-Eccles, and didn't win. The only team that HAS won this year are the Wasatch People's Front. I have no argument with Salt Lake improving their chances, because they won while Los Angeles and Colorado fell on their nuts. I understand that. I just have trouble seeing why Toronto gets punished for doing what, after all, New England, DC United, and Columbus did as well.

And this is me not understanding how math works, but how can nine teams have a better than 50% shot at eight playoff spots?

Also, past performance is no guarantee of future earnings. As the site itself says: "When the simulation "plays" a match it assumes each team has an equal chance of winning, with no regard for record, injuries, matchups, or streaks." Which is...okay, that's probably a good way to make MLS picks this year.

Except the whole history of MLS has been decided on injuries and streaks. More to the point, the one thing I can prove empirically is that you can't just throw out home field advantage like that. I think Houston has a much better than six in ten chance of making the playoffs, because of their schedule. I think that while San Jose is in serious trouble, playing so many games in Buck Rogers Stadium helps as much as Huckerby and Lima.

We'll see.

The other interesting thing you can do, even if you hate baseball, is go to that site's MLB page, and ponder what a .500 record gets you in that sport. Result (highlight to reveal): Lew Wolff's A's have a better chance of making the playoffs than his Earthquakes...but not by a hell of a lot.