MLS All-Star Power Rankings!

Last year, I thought charting the number of home games teams had left would be a helpful way of projecting who would win the conferences, who would make the playoffs, and who had effectively torched themselves already.

It didn't work. Dallas didn't come close to winning the Supporters Shield, Toronto flopped badly, both DC and Chivas USA passed two teams each on their way to winning the division. DC, Chivas USA, and Chicago improved in the second half. The only team the formula worked for was the Galaxy.

I arbitrarily decided teams would average two points at home, zero points on the road. I've put a tiny bit more thought into it this time. So far, 117 games have been played. 204 points have been scored by the home team, 114 by the road. (Points, not goals. I didn't need to tell you that, did I? I apologize.) That's 1.74 points a game for the home team, and just under one point a game for the road team. (Even if one throws out the Revs' ridiculously good road record, we still average up to roughly a point a game for the road team...which seems wrong to me. Please let me know where I erred.) Let's project that out for the remaining schedule and see what happens.

Anyway - most home games left:

1. San Jose, 9
2. Houston, 8
2. Kansas City, 8
4. Chicago, 7
4. Colorado, 7
4. New England, 7
4. New York, 7
8. Chivas USA, 6
8. Columbus, 6
8. DC United, 6
8. Dallas, 6
8. Toronto, 6
13. Los Angeles, 5
13. Salt Lake, 5

And, let's see how that projects out:

1. New England, 51.18
2. Columbus, 45.44
3. Chicago, 44.18
4. Kansas City, 40.92
5. DC United, 40.44
5. Toronto, 40.44
7. New York, 39.18

1. Houston, 41.92
2. Chivas USA, 40.44
3. Salt Lake, 39.70
3. Los Angeles, 39.70
5. Colorado, 39.18
6. Dallas, 36.44
7. San Jose, 33.66

New England has to feel really good right now, and everyone else better brush up on their tiebreakers. We'll see in October how close this came to reality, but it's sort of plausible so far.